$20.80 DoN bubble hand KQ, all-in?

[bonaparte]

I'm trying to get a feel for good strategy in these types of situations. I really don't know what the cut off is for going all in when I and another short stack are reaching the end of the game.

In this case I had KQ here and choose to go all in since it was a good hand. I was hoping to knock out the big blind who is all in because of the antes and the BB. At the begining of the hand I had a few more chips than BB so it wouldn't matter if I lost the hand, just so long as the BB did also.

Should I wait for another hand to go all-in, or should I go all-in here to try to knock out BB (and thus win the tourney) on this hand?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00+$0.80 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 80 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t2550)
Button (t7390)
SB (t1240)
BB (t835)
UTG (t2115)
Hero (MP) (t870)

Hero's M: 0.52

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, K
1 fold, Hero calls t790 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls t800, 1 fold

Flop: (t3225) 7, 2, A (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t3225) 10 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3225) 8 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t3225

[baudib]

I would fold this so fast it's not even funny.

[chuckc3401]

Too many bad things can happen here. You put your chips in hoping to get heads up but you only had 0.0000001% fold equity. Open fold and let someone else try to take out the BB on the bubble and preserve your tourney equity.

[Rage2100]

I would fold this so fast it's not even funny.

At first, I agreed with this, but I think it's closer than it seems.

If you call, both yourself and BB will be all-in because of the antes. You would hope Button would also call. If this happened, BB would have to beat both hands to stay in. Also, you have a strong hand compared to what BB is likely to have.

If you fold, you would hope Button would still call, but then BB has a slightly better chance of surviving, against only one other hand. In two hands time, you will be all-in in the BB yourself, so BB winning this hand would be a bad outcome for you.

An interesting situation would arise if you fold and Button folds. Then, SB could call and hopefully take out BB. Even if he loses, he could then fold the next couple of hands and hope that you go out when you are in the BB.

The ideal outcome would be if you called, Button and SB called too, and the hand got checked down. You cannot guarantee this to happen though.

I think there are arguments for both folding and calling in this situation.

[Rage2100]

You put your chips in hoping to get heads up but you only had 0.0000001% fold equity.

I think the opposite would be true here. You put your chips in hoping to get it as multi-way as possible.

[baudib]

I'm literally only playing AA/KK in this spot.

[Nakamura]

I think if this hand happened in a slightly different order I would be more comfortable. There have been quite a few times I was a relatively short-stacked and called/pushed against a small stack thinking big-stacked opps would join for 1BB. This does not happen all the time.

Although it is clearly in the button's interest to call, he won't always do this. I would feel much more comfortable if the big stack acted first here and I could call (some kind of implied collusion).

Secondary to the whole issue, why is the SB not pushing? He would virtually guarantee placing by pushing here. If Hero wins BB is out, if BB wins Hero is out. There would need to be a strange and combination of events (like split pots) for this not to happen.

[mcatdog]

This is an interesting hand, if the BB wins this all-in then you're going to be all-in 2 hands later and it'll almost always be at least 3 way. So if you fold, BB survives half the time and you have about a 2/3 chance of bubbling, let's estimate you bubble 1/3 of the time if you fold here.

If you call, then the button usually comes along, and the BB then has about 28% equity 3-way, so in this case you bubble 28%.

Seems like a good call to me, is anything wrong with my logic here?

[Rage2100]

I am torn between calling and folding here. I have folded in these situations, had BB double up, and wished I had called. Also, I have called in these situations and gone out.

I don't know what is best here.

[bonaparte]

Sorry it took so long for me to get back to this. It looks like we are split down the middle. Looking at the pros and cons it looks like either play is at least an OK play.

[gingerwizard]

ICM will say this is a clear fold. That is because ICM takes into account only the hand that you have, and the amount of the blinds. No need to risk bubbling to double your stack in a DoN according to ICM because double stack does not even come close to doubling your equity. Add that BB is definitely in and you run.

But this looks like one of those times ICM can be wrong. You have to be all in in 2 hands time if you don't take this chance. That factor should now dominate your decision making, and you should base your decision on whether you have a greater chance of going out in the next 2 hands if you fold, as opposed to if you call now.

I'll put some numbers in later today to see what the decision looks like.

[Rage2100]

I'll put some numbers in later today to see what the decision looks like.

I'll be very interested in seeing this, as I'm still undecided what the correct decision is. I think it's really close.