100NL, TPGK facing a 90BB shove on the flop

[pokerfan]

sb is 23/10/1.4 over 39 hands, UTG is 70/18/2.7 over just 28 hands and looked like a standard donk. Could he push with TPWK or flush draw? He could have TP & nuts flush redraw as well as AK,two pairs or sets.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($90.40)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($96.20)
UTG+1 ($139.55)
MP1 ($110.90)
MP2 ($81)
CO ($101.10)
Button ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises $7, UTG calls $7, UTG+1 calls $7, 1 fold, SB calls $7

Flop: ($29) A, 2, 9 (4 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12, UTG raises $89.20 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero ?

[ATOTHEC101]

Against this fellow I be calling.

[bigspenda73]

I really don't like doing this with AQo PF, rather just have total air or like JJ+

I'm folding on the flop, I think even against a optimistic range it's hard to find 40% equity.

[Sprayed]

I really don't like doing this with AQo PF, rather just have total air or like JJ+

I'm folding on the flop, I think even against a optimistic range it's hard to find 40% equity.

Noob question, I get the fact that we don't want to bloat the pot preflop with AQo. You will get a call and be in this situation oop which sucks. However, can you explain how we figure that we need to be 40%?

[bigspenda73]

I didn't even run the math, just assumed it was around 40%

we actually don't even need that much since the pot is big, it's 77 to win 142, so whatever those odds are, slightly worse than 2:1 it would appear, meaning we need something like 35-36% which is what I was getting with AcTc-AcKc,22,99,AJ+

[Sprayed]

So it's close. With his numbers, could we add other Axs hands, which would give us the odds to call? Or is that being too optimistic? Wouldn't we think that he would raise AT+ UTG with 18% PFR? Am I asking too many questions?

[bigspenda73]

meh I should read the OP, he's 70/18, that widens his range enough to call it off here.

[pokerfan]

it looks like a close call though.

50,490 games 0.005 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: As 2c 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.963% 32.77% 06.19% 16545 3127.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 61.037% 54.84% 06.19% 27690 3127.50 { 99, 22, A9s+, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, A2s, 92s, A9o+, A2o }


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[baudib]

Don't you think his range has a lot more flush draws than Acxc? He's probably raising most of his Ax.

wtf did you notice the supernoob stats? call that shit!