gross bubble spot - $38

[givememyleg]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $35+$3 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t3875)
BB (t1420)
UTG (t1790)
Button (t6415)

Hero's M: 9.69

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
1 fold, Button raises to t6390 (All-In), Hero....

Button is a solid reg and he knows that I know that he knows he is pushing super wide. BB is a donk.

Is JJ a fold? Is this QQ+?

Edit - This is a turbo (if it matters.)

[baudib]

I'd fold given our edge on donk BB is so big.

[givememyleg]

What do you call with then?

[baudib]

QQ+.

I'd probably call with AK too cuz I never fold AK in SNGs but that's probably wrong.

[givememyleg]

If you're calling with AK you should be calling with JJ without a shadow of a doubt.

Against a 50% shoving range, JJ has 71% equity while AK has 65%. I think AK is a fold, but JJ is much closer.

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	71.281%  	70.92% 	00.36% 	    4338795235 	 22238552.25   { JJ }
Hand 1: 	28.719%  	28.36% 	00.36% 	    1734789852 	 22238552.25   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	65.364%  	63.85% 	01.51% 	    9979609271 	236700390.25   { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 	34.636%  	33.12% 	01.51% 	    5176900861 	236700390.25   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }

Interestingly enough, QQ only has 4% more equity than JJ, 75%. Is 4% more really enough to make QQ a call but JJ a fold?

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	74.917%  	74.57% 	00.35% 	    4531597044 	 21078815.25   { QQ }
Hand 1: 	25.083%  	24.74% 	00.35% 	    1503212222 	 21078815.25   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }

I think a 50% shoving range is pretty accurate, he knows we both know what is going on and that I can't call without perhaps KK+. Then again, the shortie isn't that short, he still has 7 bbs. But if we lower his shoving range, to say 40%, then our equity goes down even more (69.5%).

I guess this is pretty much a pure ICM problem, and I suck hard at ICM. Spenda and I tried to work it out last night but came up with head asplode.

[givememyleg]

On second thought, maybe 50% is too narrow. Gah, idk, would like to hear some other opinions.

[taipan168]

This is a spot where chip equity is almost meaningless, you need $ equity to even consider this calculation.

I ran this in SNG Wiz and it is a +EV call if opp is shoving more than about 70% of hands. If opp is shoving 50% of hands then the only hands we can call with are QQ+. Interestingly (and as I suspected), AK (both suited and not) is always a fold even if opp is shoving 100% (in which case our call range is TT+).

Perhaps another way to look at this problem is to look at what hands opp should be shoving. Assuming that you call with 4% of hands (TT+, AK) and BB calls with 8% (66+, AJo+, ATs+) then opp should shove 100% of hands. If he knows he should shove 100% of hands, then JJ is actually quite a +EV call. However I find that most players don't realise how wide they should shove here (or correctly tighten their range because they think their opps will call their shoves wide), so it certainly is a close one.

[gingerwizard]

I call with TT+ here, because the buy in is so large. Big stack should shove everything, and because this is a $35+3 and he's open shoving, I give him credit for knowing that.

At $6.50 I play KK+

[bigspenda73]

QQ+.

I'd probably call with AK too cuz I never fold AK in SNGs but that's probably wrong.

Baudib this is why you upset me, I don't know why I keep constantly showing you this good stuff, but here you go again:

Hand 0: 34.636% 33.12% 01.51% 5176900861 236700390.25 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 65.364% 63.85% 01.51% 9979609271 236700390.25 { AKs, AKo }


Hand 0: 28.719% 28.36% 00.36% 1734789852 22238552.25 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 71.281% 70.92% 00.36% 4338795235 22238552.25 { JJ }

[baudib]

I know.