Couple of interesting AI calls against good opps ($27)

[taipan168]

In both cases, opps are solid winning multitablers with several thousand dollar profits on Sharkscope over a big sample size.

Hand 1: I ran this in SNG Wiz and it is +EV if opp is shoving 40% or wider. I turned the tables and SNG Wiz said that he should be shoving far wider than that assuming that SB and myself call pretty tight (10-15% or so).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t2950)
UTG (t2785)
MP (t2290)
Button (t3085)
SB (t2390)

Hero's M: 4.07

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
2 folds, Button raises to t3060 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????

Hand 2: This turns +EV if opp is shoving 60% or wider, and I am pretty sure that he would be shoving pretty wide particularly because there are antes. This may be one of those spots where calling with this hand will cause opp to reconsider shoving on me quite as wide in the future (I have played about 300 hands with him but I don't think he recognises me as a regular). Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t4210)
UTG (t1580)
MP (t2190)
Button (t3310)
SB (t2210)

Hero's M: 9.91

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, A
3 folds, SB raises to t2185 (All-In), Hero ????

[DoanDiggy]

I like them both. But I'm crazy.

[gingerwizard]

Hand 1 is fine. Winning regs at that level know ICM better than us, and will be pushing wide enough to validate your assumptions.

Hand 2 I don't like. He's never shoving wider than 60% with 11BBs, it's just not profitable. If he has 9 it's a call, but I'm happy laying this down.
His shove is only +EV if he thinks you'll call as tight as 22+, A2+, KT+ (give or take 0.5%)

I doubt after 300 hands he'd risk you being that tight, as most default ranges have other hands in them. (K9s, QJ etc)

Just my 2 cents. Nice thread though

[DoanDiggy]

After reconsidering, SB is in 3rd place, and I can't see him shoving 60% into the big stack. The street cred ("Don't shove into me unless you want called.") is nice, but it's not worth the 65%+ (probably) chance that you turn yourself into a short stack.

[taipan168]

He's never shoving wider than 60% with 11BBs, it's just not profitable.

Did you notice the antes? His 11x BB stack is really only the equivalent of 7.8x BB since there's 425 in the pot preflop rather than 300.

[givememyleg]

1 I snap.

2 is more close. The antes do make me want to call and I probably would in the heat of the moment.

[Sprayed]

The first hand I believe to be a call. If he is a mutli-tabler, he could be just looking at stacks and shoving a fairly wide range. The second hand I would fold. I would think that you would need A7 or better. 60% seems too wide for him to be shoving into the big stack.