what should i be calling with here? another f'n bubble post

[givememyleg]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $35+$3 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t3500)
SB (t1045)
Hero (BB) (t2625)
UTG (t6330)

Hero's M: 3.75

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 8
2 folds, SB raises to t1020 (All-In), HEROOOO

Villain is a donk. 620 for me to call in a 1520 pot.

Fold, I'm left with 2225, villain will have 1545.
Call a win, I will have 3745 and itm.
Call and lose 1580, villain 2115.

Numbers may be slightly off. Now for his range, I imagine it is fairly wide, and I'm getting like 2.5:1. However, I don't want to double him up and be left with 2.5 bbs. If I fold he's still the shortie and I have 4.5 bbs.

After looking more closely at this post I think I have more of an idea of what is right, but while playing I have to say I was stumped. Would like to hear some discussion.

[taipan168]

This is almost an ATC call. The only hand range that I can find that would make this a fold would be if SB is shoving 10% or tighter and there's no way that's the case.

[gingerwizard]

It's an ICM call without question.

What I would like to say however is that there may be other factors that argue for a fold. For example if big stack is very aggressive he will attack shortie when it's his BB next. If medium stack is crap and loose, he may go to war with big stack. Big might be uber tight, and you'll be able to shove into him.

The point is that in 3 hands, shortie will be BB, the blinds may have gone up, and 2 big stacks will be going into him. Add to that the possibility of you picking up a nice hand in those 3 and there are arguments based on possible futures for a fold.

ICM cannot take these futures into account, and so if you live and die by it you have to call.

Personally it's not an ATC call for me. The table dynamic would help make up my mind for me. Without any reads, and if the blinds are not due up in the next couple of hands, then I call. Just your read that shortie is a donk tempts me to wait, but I may need more.

[TLR]

with 98o I would definitely call; unless SB is super weak tight even when short stack I would call with pretty much ATC

[taipan168]

What I would like to say however is that there may be other factors that argue for a fold.

You also need to take into account the fact that if we fold, shorty's stack will be 1745 and ours will be 2200.

[bigspenda73]

lulz@folding yo

[baudib]

Call with AK but fold JJ+