TT vs. shortstack shove and limp shove

[Danh Bai]

I was hoping the shortie would shove as he has been doing so every other hand. I didn't expect the limper to shove...What do we put him on here, I was thinking like AT/Js or maybe a smaller pair to mine - or he's slowplaying the monsters KK/AA.

FTR Hand History Converter Output (intended for copying and pasting into poker forums!):
Cake Poker Hold'em Tournament, 0/10 Blinds (9 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t2710)
MP3 (t1630)
CO (t1120)
Button (t1710)
SB (t800)
BB (t2110)
UTG (t1235)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1390)
MP1 (t2295)

Hero's M: 139.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with ,
UTG calls t50, Hero raises to t150, 5 folds, SB raises to t800 (All-In), 1 fold, UTG raises to t1235 (All-In),
Hero sees blinds are going up in 6 mins, hovers mouse over AI then over Fold, and finally...??

[DoanDiggy]

This really depends on UTG... I'm assuming we've never seen him make a play like this? I agree that this seems like Ax (even as low as A8), KQ, or a pair 55+ or so since he knows that SB has been pushing a lot and he wants to get it in good against him. He should be a little worried about you, but that depends on your image. He probably figures to have a lot of fold equity against you (which he does if you're considering folding TT).

If his range is as wide as A8+,KQ,55+ then we're 59%. If it's 77+,AT+,KQ, we're 53%. If it's as narrow as 99+,AJ+, we're still 47% and have way good pot odds to call. Even when we're up against a super-tight-mostly-dominated range of JJ+,AK, we're better than 33% and we're getting we have enough pot odds that we only need 32% to call. ICM doesn't factor huge here yet, and we're getting to the point that chipping up would be great.

So 35-60% of the time we're winning at least the side pot and maintaining our stack, meaning that we're getting a very profitable freeload at our 70%-or-so equity against the short stack. About 30-50% of the time we scoop the whole pot for 3370 chips, putting us in the chip lead with 7 players left. When the blinds go up, 2 more players will be around 10M (both blinds when we are in the HJ and the BB when we are in the CO), so we should be able to cruise to an easy ITM money finish and likely win.

So basically, insta-call. No way UTG is as narrow as JJ+,AK here, but even if he is we have odds to call. Don't forget to fist pump?

[gingerwizard]

Hey Danh.

You need to add the blinds yourself when posting a cake poker HH. SOmething seems weird with 0/10 blinds.

Your raise pre seems ok, but my personal preference is of 200. At 50/100 I only make it 350.

The SB shove you'd call but after UTG shoves too I lay this down. It's early and it's not often a limp shove is anything other than KK+. I don't want to go in 3 way, be behind and simulataneously be dodging all paint.

[gingerwizard]

Doan this advice looks bad to me. ICM is of course a factor for a start. Adding 2000 to our stack does not mean anything like "cruising to an easy win," and is certainly not worth double our current equity.

We're not frightened of SB, we are ahead of his range, but the combination of having to beat his range and UTG looking like he has a monster (I mean he just has to have QQ+ unless he's one of those nuts and that's a strong read to get), makes this a fold for me. A fist pump fold in fact

[DoanDiggy]

OK, sorry for the bad advice. A read on UTG would really help though. I know that personally when someone is spazzing out and shoving 50% and I'm UTG with a hand that fares well against his range (but that I don't like to raise UTG), I'm looking to limp and call his shove, especially on a tight table.

Folding leaves us with 1240 chips, likely the 2nd lowest stack on the table with 8 players remaining, and in another orbit or 2 we'll be well under 10M. It might not be a fist pump insta-call, but is it really a fist pump fold?

I mean, I'm curious to know what UTG showed up with. If I see AT+, KQ, or 66-99 here (much more likely to make this play than QQ IMO), I'm going to be regretting my decision to go against my instincts. The only hands I would expect UTG to turn over that have us dominated are AA and KK and maybe JJ.

Here's an unbalanced range that I think describes what I might expect UTG to make this play with: 5/6 of AA, 2/3 of KK, 1/2 of QQ, 2/3 of JJ, all 88-TT (to add some underpairs), all AJo+, ATs+ and KQs:

Hand 0: 	47.271%  	46.47% 	00.80% 	      66048201 	  1134208.50   { AcAh, AcAs, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JcJh, JcJs, JdJh, JdJs, TT-88, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 	52.729%  	51.93% 	00.80% 	      73804614 	  1134208.50   { TcTd }

Does that seem reasonable? KQs in particular seems like a good candidate (and it's only 4 combos anyways) since it is way ahead of SB's range, it has great fold equity against all but JJ+ and AK, and it has outs against most callers.

From your post, it sounds like you'd be folding JJ here, too?

Hand 0: 	42.117%  	41.24% 	00.88% 	     334722714 	  7114314.00   { AcAh, AcAs, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JJ-88, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 	57.883%  	57.01% 	00.88% 	     462680754 	  7114314.00   { JJ }

Two more things: couldn't AA or KK instead be calling here to induce an overcall or overshove by us? For that reason we might actually need to discount the biggest pairs somewhat from UTG's range. Also, what if we had made it 200 preflop? Now we would be getting even better odds (over 2:1) to call.

I hope these ideas give us a few things to talk about, and maybe my posts in this thread won't be completely worthless .