JJ in SB

[chrisav74]

Villain is playing 27/16 over 88 hands and has so far played fairly straight forward. My image is fairly T.Agg I have been pretty card dead for a while. What range can I put him on after calling behind a limper?


4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1941)
CO (t6104)
Button (t7056)
Hero (SB) (t5534)
BB (t10458)
UTG (t10690)
MP1 (t1916)

Hero's M: 10.06

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
3 folds, CO calls t250, Button calls t250, Hero raises to t1500, 2 folds, Button raises to t7031 (All-In) Hero?????

[drmcboy]

I would guess he has a lower PP and thinks you are stealing but really it could be anything. The good news is it doesn't matter much since you are going to call. You're a flip vs the top 5% and if he's even that strong I would consider it a bad beat.

[chrisav74]

I called and he turned over QQ!!

[sinister1]

I would guess he has a lower PP and thinks you are stealing but really it could be anything. The good news is it doesn't matter much since you are going to call. You're a flip vs the top 5% and if he's even that strong I would consider it a bad beat.

This.

Also just b/c he turned over QQ does not mean you made a bad call. That is what is called being results oriented (very bad). If you make that call over and over you are going to run into QQ much less frequently than lower pp's or overcards.

[Jason]

For the record, I wrote this BEFORE seeing your answer or reading any other replies. In the future, I wouldn't post the answer or at the very least, hide it using white text or something.

You have an M of 10. Villain has an M of 12. It's not desperation time, but it's definitely not fool around time. Since he reraised allin and seems reasonably tight, I'd put him on AK, QQ, KK, AA, or TT. That's one coinflip, three hands that have you dominated, and one where you have him dominated. At this stage, I don't think you're in a situation where you have to put it all on the line, unless you have a read to contrary where you are a favorite. JJ might be a good hand for YOU to push an allin rr with, but it's not the kind of hand I'd want to call all my chips off when I still had plenty of chips to work with. I say fold.

[chrisav74]

I don't think I'm being results oriented here - I just didn't put him on a big pair because he limped after an EP limper. I wanted to see if anybody could have put him on QQ+.

Maybe he saw a lot of Ms around 10 and thouhgt that somebody might be tempted to shove atc to pick up a nice little pot.

[Danh Bai]

I hate these spots too. Who's "right" here, Drmcboy or Jason?

[DoanDiggy]

This is AK, AQ or a lower pair a lot more often than it is QQ+, so you have to make this call 100% of the time. This is really a pretty stupid play to make with QQ... a lot of people don't realize just how vulnerable QQ is. Against 3 others, CO's top 40%, SB's top 60%, and BB's random hand, QQ is under 50% to win. With under 13M, villain is taking a big chance at getting his QQ cracked. SB and BB aren't really short enough to be expecting a really wide shove or raise in this situation unless they've been shoving a lot. Basically, villain got really lucky that you had one of the few hands here that would be raising him and be dominated.

Actually, this is a pretty stupid play to make with AK or a lower pocket pair in such late position as well. In early position as a big stack it can make a lot of sense to limp/shove a hand like AK because you get a nice pool of dead money that makes a coin flip profitable. The same can be said of a low pair if you're shoving over someone you've seen call all in with overcards. If someone is calling as wide as 55+, A9+, KJ+ (a lot more low stakes donks than you would realize, who are usually calling even wider), limp/shoving a hand like 88 in early position with a big stack is profitable. Just make sure you have a big stack to make a play like this, otherwise this is a recipe for busting out early over and over again.

[Jason]

Again, my main argument for folding isn't so much the range as it is the situation. You've still got plenty of chips and you've got a villain who apparently hasn't been very active or pushing much and has more chips than you and all of a sudden, he reraises allin. I just wouldn't want to put my tournament on the line in that spot with Jacks - Aces or Kings, definitely, Queens maybe, Jacks ... meh, it's a good hand, but it plays much more like TT than it does QQ if that makes sense. If your M was 5 or less, then it's an autopush, but 10 isn't "panic mode" in my mind.

Having said all that, I don't think calling the allin with JJ is a bad play per se. I'm just saying that I probably wouldn't do it for all the reasons I've stated.

[dthorne04]

dear god this is never in a million years a fold, drmcboy pretty much ended this thread with his reply

[chardrian]

I hate these spots too. Who's "right" here, Drmcboy or Jason?

the dr always gives g00t advice.

Why would a 25ish BB stack who has played very laggy over a decent sample size limp behind with TT-AA/AK?? It just doesn't make sense that a player who has been raising 1 out of every 6 times would limp behind with that range here.

As dr said, the much more likely scenario is that villain limped behind with a hand like 22-TT, thought that hero was just trying to steal a limped pot and then tried to resteal an inflated pot.

[Jason]

Meh, I don't think anyone is "right". As I said, I don't think calling or folding either way would be an obvious good or bad play. Based on what I've read, though, I would fold.

I think success in tournaments, both MTT and SNG, is very dependent on picking your spots. With an M of 10, I would personally have enough confidence in my ability to keep playing poker and find a better spot. If you get a good read that the villain has a PP less than JJ, then that definitely IS a great spot to call a reraise. However, if villain could just as easily have QQ, KK, AA or even AK, AQ, and KQ, then why put it all on the line now?

In my opinion, AA, KK, and QQ are NOT far fetched hands for villain to have. Imagine you're in his spot and you woke up to AA - you see three folds and a limper plus two blinds yet to act. With the blinds and stack sizes where they are, you know that players are going to be really skittish to get involved in a pot unless they have a reasonably good hand and there's no way they're going to call a raise unless it's a very good hand. With pocket rockets, you don't want to scare everyone away, so what do you do? Smooth call and wait for the sb or bb to do something crazy and when they do, bam, push in. This is a VERY reasonable scenario. Sure the same scenario could play out with a smaller PP, but let's not pretend QQ, KK, or AA are not in range.

[dthorne04]

Meh, I don't think anyone is "right".

this is incorrect imo, anything but calling the shove is incorrect. Against a reasonable, possibly too tight range to assign here like 77+, AJs+, AJo+, JJ is 56%. the problem is a lot of times hands like QQ/KK/AA don't make sense, because very rarely does anyone ever overlimp them. Folding here is an awful error. Please don't ever fold here. We've raised 1500 out of our 5.5k stack and we're going to fold our final 4k in this spot? No. If you fold in spots like this, then you're living money on the table. As simple as that.

[chardrian]

yeah, I don't mean to be an ass, but you're wrong. This isn't a situation where it's so close that any decision is fine. Calling is correct and folding is wrong.

dthorne's range is very very tight and shows that even against a tight range this is a clear call.

Your last sentnece should read: Sure bad players might retardedly play QQ-AA this way so we have to include them in his range, but even with those hands in his range this is a clear call.