Big slick missed, looking at an all in from short stack.

[trilerian]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00+$0.20 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (t1555)
UTG+1 (t1455)
MP1 (t3155)
MP2 (t1315)
CO (t2405)
Button (t1250)
Villain (SB) (t845)
BB (t1520)

Hero's M: 10.37

Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
Hero raises to t300, 5 folds, Villain calls t250, 1 fold

Flop: (t700) , , (2 players)
Villain bets t545 (All-In), Hero ?

I am at a loss on a range for this one as most ranges that should be in this hand, probably should have pushed over pre flop considering Villain's stack size. So I figured the donk bet was either a bluff, or trying to protect a small pp. Considering he was playing pretty loose aggressive, I figured more than likely a bluff. If Villain would have checked, I would have put him all in with a c-bet.

[fulksy]

i fold. its two much of your stack... you fold you still have a decent stack.wait for a better spot. he could of called with A8, A10, K10, etc. theirs tons your behind its a $1.00 game, players will call raises with tons regardless of stacksize.

[gingerwizard]

ugh sucks cos he probably insta shoves his whole range on flop.

It's a fairly standard fold though IMO

[baudib]

Shove preflop?

[gingerwizard]

Shove preflop?

Hero UTG with 15.5BBs many handed at 50/100 and you want to shove pre flop?

Just because a play is +$EV it doesn't mean it maximises $EV.

Sometimes sticking a pin in a liferaft is the most effective way to sink it. Firing a 50kilo artillary shell at it is perhaps not cost effective.

[taipan168]

I make it 250 preflop rather than 300, saves you some chips if you get called, miss the flop and want to give up.

In this case, we have to call 545 chips to win 1245 so we're getting almost 2.3 to 1 on the call or need to be about 30% to win against opp's range to make this a good call (OK, maybe 32-33% with the ICM tax):

Board: 8h 4c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.913% 50.84% 02.07% 136409 5552.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 47.087% 45.02% 02.07% 120777 5552.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Even if we narrow opp's range considerably this is still a call:

Board: 8h 4c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.767% 36.28% 05.48% 30173 4560.50 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 58.233% 52.75% 05.48% 43866 4560.50 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }

[baudib]

Shove preflop?

Hero UTG with 15.5BBs many handed at 50/100 and you want to shove pre flop?

Just because a play is +$EV it doesn't mean it maximises $EV.

Sometimes sticking a pin in a liferaft is the most effective way to sink it. Firing a 50kilo artillary shell at it is perhaps not cost effective.

I really hate playing AKo oop. (even though we're actually IP here). It's more of an artillary shell-type hand.

I almost like limping if we're not shoving here.

I'm shocked that we should call this stop-and-go but trust in taipan's assessments.

[taipan168]

I agree with Ginger that our stack is probably just a little too deep to open shove, but only just a little. With 14x BB or less I would probably just shove and be done with it.

A lot of this depends on how many tables you are playing. If you have 11 other tables beeping at you at the same time, I actually think that just open shoving is a better choice than standard raising and potentially having to play postflop.

[gingerwizard]

Tai, I've not done the math cos I aint got time this morning, but is this an ICM call

[trilerian]

i fold. its two much of your stack... you fold you still have a decent stack.wait for a better spot. he could of called with A8, A10, K10, etc. theirs tons your behind its a $1.00 game, players will call raises with tons regardless of stacksize.

I realize that there are hands that I could be behind here, but I was wondering what ICM says about this hand. I only have a basic understanding of it and could only guess to the math at the table, but I thought it was a call. Here was my thinking, and I would really appreciate a reply from Ginger or Taipan on this to see if I am completely off the mark.

My rationale was that there are 8 players left at the table and my share of the prize pool at this time is pretty small. If I can knock a player out and gain some chips my share of the prize pool becomes quite a bit bigger. This gives me some breathing room and I can wait for better cards to battle with. If I fold I am left with 1255 in chips, I still have some time left but blinds are creeping up and I am going to need to make a move. If I call and lose, I am in push fold mode. I think the difference between winning and losing is significant compared to the difference between folding and losing, so I made the call. Whether or not I won is not important here, as I am more curious as to whether or the not the call was justifiable. But after I made the call, opp berated me with a number of names insinuating how stupid I was and how bad a player I am. Which completely floored me because I though I made a level headed decision doing the best I could to apply risk reward to the call.

[fulksy]

just wondering, taipan showed us the equity in the hand but isn't that only if he is shoving his whole range on the flop? i don't think that he is shoving his whole range its a 1.00 game players will call wide regardless of stack size and shove when the hit any piece i don't really think he is shoving anyflop.

here's my ICM calcs, i fold cause i think i'm behind too much on his shove(i don't think he shoves his whole range), of course i'm almost certainly wrong so don't listen to me, i just post for people to tell me i'm wrong and why i'm wrong, i find i learn more trying to solve something first then people telling me where i went wrong

before hand had 11.892% of prize pool
if called and won 17.944% of prize pool
if called and loss 5.705% of prize pool

[taipan168]

I realize that there are hands that I could be behind here, but I was wondering what ICM says about this hand. I only have a basic understanding of it and could only guess to the math at the table, but I thought it was a call. Here was my thinking, and I would really appreciate a reply from Ginger or Taipan on this to see if I am completely off the mark.

The ICM is like this:
- If you fold you will have 1255 chips worth 9.8% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will have 710 chips worth 5.7% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 2500 chips worth 18.1% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be (9.8-5.7)/(18.1-5.7) = 33% to win to make this a good call (glad my rough calcs above were right!).

Whilst I agree that opp doesn't necessarily shove all his preflop raise range on the flop, even if he has a piece of this board 100% of the time you almost have correct odds to spike an A or K on the river, so this only needs to be a bluff a small amount of the time to make it a good call.

My rationale was that there are 8 players left at the table and my share of the prize pool at this time is pretty small. If I can knock a player out and gain some chips my share of the prize pool becomes quite a bit bigger. This gives me some breathing room and I can wait for better cards to battle with. If I fold I am left with 1255 in chips, I still have some time left but blinds are creeping up and I am going to need to make a move. If I call and lose, I am in push fold mode. I think the difference between winning and losing is significant compared to the difference between folding and losing, so I made the call.

The reason to make this call is because of the equity your hand has (see the pokerstove calcs above) compared to the pot odds you're getting (2.3 to 1). The ICM calculation that I did above takes into account the factors you mention above.

But after I made the call, opp berated me with a number of names insinuating how stupid I was and how bad a player I am. Which completely floored me because I though I made a level headed decision doing the best I could to apply risk reward to the call.

Just brush it off, you made the right decision. Why be worried about what a $1 SNG opponent thinks? Most of these guys have no clue about odds, position etc. so don't be affected about being berated by a donkey.

[gingerwizard]

ok, this may take a while but I'm gonna try and do it for the two ranges taipan suggested.

We should get a feel for the answer based on those two.

If you fold you have 1255, villain has 1245, bb has 1420.
Your share of prize pool is 9.78%

If you call and lose you have 710, villain has 1790, bb has 1420
Your share of prize pool is 5.75%

If you call and win, you have 2500, villain has 0, bb has 1420
Your share of prize pool is 18.06%

Already I'm thinking this looks like a call.

So to make this a call, probability we win the hand p, must be such that

18.06p + 5.75(1-p) > 9.78

i.e. p > 0.3273761, which is 32.74%

With Taipan's first range {22+,A2s+,K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } this is an easy call.

With the 2nd {66+, ATs+, ATo+}, it is still a call, and if we throw all pairs in as well so we're losing more hands it's still a call.

In short it is an ICM call. Tai was right for any conceivable range opp may shove with, and for good measure, in case you're interested ICM added about 2-3% to the equity required for a call here.

If calling and losing means a bust, I think ICM would make it a fold.

[gingerwizard]

Balls Taipan, that took me 15 minutes and you did it at the same time.

Grrrrrrrr

[taipan168]

Balls Taipan, that took me 15 minutes and you did it at the same time.

Grrrrrrrr

Still haven't lost my touch

Can you post the derivation of the formula (fold-lose)/(call-lose) that I used above? Somebody did it for me some time ago but I can't remember how to do it (been 20 years since I've done this crap).

[gingerwizard]

Lose% = L
Fold%=F
Win%=W
Probability we win if call = p

We require p such that pW + (1-p)L > F to make calling good.

I'll do it line by line using the symbol => to mean implies.

pW + (1-p)L > F
=> pW - pL + L > F
=> p(W-L) > F - L
=> p > (F-L)/(W-L) provided the following is true.

1. W > L (which must be true as % of prize pool for winning showdown always bigger than % if losing it, and can never been the same

[trilerian]

Thanks much for the replies guys. I'm really going to have to study ICM more but I am glad to have made the right choice here.