I don't believe him but I folded anyway

[baudib]

Another marginal situation against a bigger stack...

I finished ITM in this tournament despite playing some of the worst poker ever seen. Just goes to show the power of getting AA four times in a single tournament.

Anyway, villain here surely sees me as much looser than the rest of the table, which had only seen me showdown with AA and AK and otherwise folded to all my cbets. He had just gotten here and had seen me raise two of the previous three hands.

I was torn between folding preflop as well as jamming it in so obviously I just called. I really felt he was BSing but I chickened out because we were on the bubble. I'm probably stronger than he thinks I am and he probably thinks I missed this flop, which I did.

Is this a good enough hand to go broke here?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$17000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Rand9216 (12581)
UTG+1 Driftpro (14515)
MP1 sneekweek (28584)
MP2 condawg20 (18530)
MP3 blaniac (9217)
CO Hero (27045)
BTN AJM1123 (11408)
SB nosoupieforyou (15200)
BB BOCHimself (40734)

Blinds: 400/800 Ante 100

Pre-flop: (2,100, 9 players) Hero is CO
5 folds, Hero raises to 2,100, 2 folds, BOCHimself raises to 5,800, Hero calls 3,700

Flop: (13,800, 2 players)
BOCHimself bets 8,000, Hero folds

Final Pot: 12,900

BOCHimself wins 20,900 ( won +7,100 )
Hero lost -5,800

[mcatdog]

Sorry, but you butchered this one. He's probably bluffing enough preflop that you can shove any pocket pair, let alone one as strong as 99 where he might actually show up with worse pairs from time to time.

If you do call, it should be because you think he's full of crap SO often that you want a c-bet out of him before you shut the door on him by shoving almost any flop, and this flop sure isn't scary enough to fold 99. Folding the flop is just absolutely terrible.

[baudib]

That's awesome, I thought you would say fold preflop. I should go with my instincts here I guess.

[Sprayed]

Sorry, but you butchered this one. He's probably bluffing enough preflop that you can shove any pocket pair, let alone one as strong as 99 where he might actually show up with worse pairs from time to time.

If you do call, it should be because you think he's full of crap SO often that you want a c-bet out of him before you shut the door on him by shoving almost any flop, and this flop sure isn't scary enough to fold 99. Folding the flop is just absolutely terrible.

Interesting analysis. +1

[bigspenda73]

i'm all-in PF, don't think it's close really

[mcatdog]

i'm all-in PF, don't think it's close really

I agree 100% but if you do just call you can't fold this flop.

[baudib]

Do you think this range is realistic here....Maybe he doesn't have this many Qs in his range but then he's probably just shoving with AK/AQ.

Board: Qs 7d 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.723% 55.42% 00.30% 114675 622.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 44.277% 43.98% 00.30% 90991 622.00 { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo }

[chardrian]

I agree w/mcat.

[BluffBugger]

I most defintely think so. I think your fold was probly correct but I would have shoved preflop. Im aggressive and dont mind coinflips to see whos going to get all the money. Putting 20% of your stack up preflop and then getting chased off cause of an over card is rough.

[chrisav74]

I also thing shoving pre-flop is best, but shoving the after flop probably takes down the pot unless he has AQ, QQ, KK or AA.

[baudib]

I def. call too much when I should raise.

This hand really bothered me...I didn't know what to do against a total unknown, but I think his view of me (I was pushing around the shorter stacks too much) was probably the most important factor. I was 50-50 on shoving the flop but chickened out.