AJs just after bubble in $12 180man

[bigspenda73]

Villain is 17/12 over 60 hands, I'm 2nd in chips, he's 4th:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $11+$1 Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 125 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t24545)
UTG+1 (t9321)
MP1 (t8777)
MP2 (t25431)
MP3 (t26237)
CO (t7572)
Button (t4899)
SB (t22540)
Hero (BB) (t32690)

Hero's M: 11.18

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
4 folds, MP3 raises to t3000, Hero?

[baudib]

I hate spots like this. All options seem kinda meh. If he were slightly tighter I think I'd fold but we're basically flipping with his range (unless he's loosened up after the bubble and in lateish position). But if we shove we're only getting called by the top part of it.

Because your stack is still in good shape relative to the others, maybe we can raise/fold? Never mind, that sucks.

I guess since we're suited I call since we'll have equity on more boards than just hitting top pair (which we might not want to hit anyway).

[chrisav74]

1800 to call is about 6% of your stack. I would call and see what the flop brings. You're M is low, but your chip position at the table is quite good. There could be some good spots to steal too.

[DoanDiggy]

This is such a crappy spot. I probably call because it's suited and we have him covered, but that might be spewing chips. Raising is bad for the reason baudib mentioned and folding seems too nitty since we're doing so well against his range. The decision between calling and folding really depends on how well villain plays postflop. If he's weak/tight postflop, we should be able to bet/fold or check/raise a lot of 9-and-lower flops, we can lead or check/raise a lot of big draws, and we like our hand on an A-high or J-high board. Between TPTK, TPGK, trips, 2-pair, broadway, flushes, flush draws, and low flops, we like our hand something like 50% of the time. And because of his range, a lot of the times we flop gin (which happens almost 10% of the time) we're stacking him.

So because of the pot and implied odds and since there's a big chance we can make some steals postflop with big draws or on low boards, I actually like a call here.

[Pino_Diablo]

you would raise if he just called, right?

i'd see it as a fold.

[drmcboy]

i take flop

[chardrian]

I don't like a fold. But calling is fine as is using your stack superiority to go'n'go him by raising to 10k pre and shoving any flop if he calls.

[bigspenda73]

Every option to me looks viable as I re-live this spot:

-Fold
It does seem a tad weak but if we're not expecting this player to be opening on our blinds lightly then AJs doesn't fair that great against his range
-Call
We have a nice hand, a stack that can threaten our opponent's hand, and an opponent who will play his hand more than likely face up due to our chip position
-Raise to 8500
If I were going to resteal this is what I would make it, it probably has a decent amount of fold equity allowing us to pick up some more chips
-Shove
Stacks are good for this too, as his raise represents about 12-15% of the effective stacks and I probably can get him to fold 22-77 and every once in a while AQ. Fully expecting him to fold AJ 100% of the time.

I'd like to hear Chardrian's, Dthorne's, and obv. Mcats thoughts please.

[Sprayed]

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

[dev]

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

I think you're looking at the wrong stack, he's got 26k (M~9).

[Poker Orifice]

I like Chardrian's response.
Wondering what has prior play been like with villain (what's he been showing down, what's his range, what are his stats. like... I didn't notice that.. but maybe I missed it). Is he raising often &/or light?
Unless he's been fairly tight I'd tend to want to reraise preflop here to 10K in hopes of restealing but also with intentions of shoving any flop.

[DoanDiggy]

Why are we talking about risking most of our chips on a play like a go-and-go at such an early stage? I mean, it's not super-early, but we are 2nd in chips with only 17 or 18 players left and we are in pretty good shape with over 11M. UTG+1 and MP1 are super-short and will be in the blinds soon... I would expect that we can take advantage of that situation.

What is a go-and-go really accomplishing here? If he has AK, he is going to shove over any re-raise. He might fold AQ or AJ to a reraise (and especially to a go-and-go if he misses), but I don't see villain folding a lot of other hands we're beating postflop that he wouldn't just fold to our raise preflop, other than a few low pairs here and there depending on the board texture.

I would much rather make a stop-and-go type play here, though not for stacks. Instead of raising it up high preflop and then shoving postflop, we can just call here and bet close to full pot on the flop, costing us the same amount that a raise would have while getting villain to fold the same hands that we want him to fold when we do a go-and-go for most our stack.

[baudib]

I guess when all options are viable it doesn't really matter...in the long run any move can't be too -EV but it makes for interesting discussion. I guess I like folding the least.

What are you doing with AQ or 99- here? I assume TT+, AK is autoshove vs. anyone in this spot.

[sk8r_daniel]

I definitly wouldn't fold considering the pot odds and the strength of our hand, and our flush capabilities. If the flop came out unfavourable for him...say 789 or something in the middle of the pack and connected, I would throw out a 2/3 pot bet hoping to take down the pot. If he has 2 high cards he will likely fold.

Raising isn't terrible either, because he very well may fold AQo and worse and small pairs. He will also fold to shove on the flop most times.

I think in the balance of things I would normally call and see how the flop texture is. The looser he is.... the more I raise or shove.

Considering how stack is the largest at the table, I don't really like shoving our whole stack in the middle. I think we have more leverage in using our stack to steal blinds instead of shoving in with AJs.

[Sprayed]

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

I think you're looking at the wrong stack, he's got 26k (M~9).

With a 9M stack, MP3 shouldn't be raise folding. Putting that much money in and then folding to a 3bet would not be good.

[g1212]

You cannot raise or shove, and to whoever thinks you autoshove 1010+ I have to strongly disagree with... You both are in excellent shape to steal until at least the final table, and the only way either of you should be getting it in is kk+ im never flipping with the big stack even with ak here, so folding is my play unless he has been relentlessly raising w/o fear (and raising the big stack)

[chardrian]

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

I think you're looking at the wrong stack, he's got 26k (M~9).

With a 9M stack, MP3 shouldn't be raise folding. Putting that much money in and then folding to a 3bet would not be good.

Although I agree that many good players will no longer raise/fold with this stack because people are 3 betting so much now and you don't want to "turn your hand into a bluff" there are also a lot of players who just aren't there yet.

The other thing to realize is that as more and more players start riding whatever the "new wave" is, it becomes better and better to play the opposite. So it is very likely that at some tables it is again becoming better to start stealing in late position again because everyone now assumes that you have to have a hand to do so.

Lastly, this spot is just gross no matter what with a lot of hands. MP3 doesn't want to raise/fold hands like QK, AT, AJ, 22-77, but he sort of has to.

[g1212]

Villian should NEVER be calling a shove with aq here, and unless he wants to flip after only investing 3000 when he ll still be in good position at the table, then I contend he should only be calling aa, and kk here. (I'm not suggesting villian plays like this and I seriously doubt he would, but if we were in his position you cant tell me you d call a shove with aq....)

[baudib]

You cannot raise or shove, and to whoever thinks you autoshove 1010+ I have to strongly disagree with... You both are in excellent shape to steal until at least the final table, and the only way either of you should be getting it in is kk+ im never flipping with the big stack even with ak here, so folding is my play unless he has been relentlessly raising w/o fear (and raising the big stack)

The objective is to get to the final table with a big stack.

[Sprayed]

Villian should NEVER be calling a shove with aq here, and unless he wants to flip after only investing 3000 when he ll still be in good position at the table, then I contend he should only be calling aa, and kk here. (I'm not suggesting villian plays like this and I seriously doubt he would, but if we were in his position you cant tell me you d call a shove with aq....)

I'd call a shove with AQ with that stack. 3000 is ~12% of his stack. It's not like he's in the best position. He's calling a lot wider than just KK+.

[Sprayed]

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

I think you're looking at the wrong stack, he's got 26k (M~9).

With a 9M stack, MP3 shouldn't be raise folding. Putting that much money in and then folding to a 3bet would not be good.

Although I agree that many good players will no longer raise/fold with this stack because people are 3 betting so much now and you don't want to "turn your hand into a bluff" there are also a lot of players who just aren't there yet.

The other thing to realize is that as more and more players start riding whatever the "new wave" is, it becomes better and better to play the opposite. So it is very likely that at some tables it is again becoming better to start stealing in late position again because everyone now assumes that you have to have a hand to do so.

Lastly, this spot is just gross no matter what with a lot of hands. MP3 doesn't want to raise/fold hands like QK, AT, AJ, 22-77, but he sort of has to.

I'm with ya. However, in the 180s, there aren't that many that can think on that many levels.

[mcatdog]

Villian should NEVER be calling a shove with aq here, and unless he wants to flip after only investing 3000 when he ll still be in good position at the table, then I contend he should only be calling aa, and kk here. (I'm not suggesting villian plays like this and I seriously doubt he would, but if we were in his position you cant tell me you d call a shove with aq....)

I would call a shove with AQ. And it goes without saying, that if villain is only calling a shove with AA and KK here then we ought to be shoving with any two cards in the BB.

[mcatdog]

I'm with ya. However, in the 180s, there aren't that many that can think on that many levels.

I think you missed the point of chardrian's post (which was a great post, by the way!) He didn't imply anything about your opponents in a 180 being on the cutting edge of tournament poker. Obviously they aren't but they're still going to notice trends and copy them to some extent, even though they really don't understand the logic behind it.

It's important to realize that the idea of never raising unless you're calling a shove, was an idea that came in response to a specific trend in tournament poker, i.e., people 3-betting WAY too often. From your posts in this thread it seems like you're just assuming that everyone has that leak, and there's really no reason to make that assumption in a 180, especially since not as many people are going crazy as they were 6 months ago.

[Sprayed]

I'm with ya. However, in the 180s, there aren't that many that can think on that many levels.

I think you missed the point of chardrian's post (which was a great post, by the way!) He didn't imply anything about your opponents in a 180 being on the cutting edge of tournament poker. Obviously they aren't but they're still going to notice trends and copy them to some extent, even though they really don't understand the logic behind it.

It's important to realize that the idea of never raising unless you're calling a shove, was an idea that came in response to a specific trend in tournament poker, i.e., people 3-betting WAY too often. From your posts in this thread it seems like you're just assuming that everyone has that leak, and there's really no reason to make that assumption in a 180, especially since not as many people are going crazy as they were 6 months ago.

Totally understand. Not arguing with chard nor did I miss chard's point or your point. Not saying that everyone has this leak. I am saying that this guy with his numbers is not raise folding. That was my original post.

If he's any good, he shouldn't be raise folding with his stack size. Due to his stats, I would call and see a flop.

.

The first part was meant to mean that since spenda is saying that mp3 is a decent player, then I would suspect that he's not raise folding in this spot due to his stack size and stats. Therefore, I would call and take a flop.

[mcatdog]

Fair enough, but I still think you're overstating your point. If he's never raise-folding then his range is something like 88+ AQ+ and you should obviously just fold instead of taking a flop. If you think he's folding occasionally, but not enough for a shove to be profitable, then calling is fine here.

Also, I don't know why his stats make you suspect he's not raise-folding. Seems like if his range is as tight as this, it'd be impossible to have a VPIP as high as 17. I just can't imagine any decent player looking down at 66 in this spot and being like damn, I better open fold because I can't call a shove from the blinds. To be fair, this is a turbo which is mostly about pushbotting. It might be possible to have a 17% VPIP in a turbo if you pushbot well, even if you become a supernit opening 88+ AQ when the stacks get a little deeper. You'd know this better than I would since I don't play too many turbos.

As for the hand, I'd expect someone with those stats to be raising a lot of hands that are happy to get all-in vs. the short stacks but not vs. the blinds. I'd expect him to fold to a shove more than 50% of the time. I'd just shove but I don't think 3-betting small is bad. His stack is right near the borderline where you stop just shoving and start mixing in small 3-bets (with both bluffs and good hands). I usually start 3-betting small when the effective stacks are 10x the amount of the opening raise, but I've heard of other people using 8x. He'd have to be a good deal tighter than 17/12 for me to elect to just call preflop.

[Sprayed]

Fair enough, but I still think you're overstating your point. If he's never raise-folding then his range is something like 88+ AQ+ and you should obviously just fold instead of taking a flop. If you think he's folding occasionally, but not enough for a shove to be profitable, then calling is fine here.

Also, I don't know why his stats make you suspect he's not raise-folding. Seems like if his range is as tight as this, it'd be impossible to have a VPIP as high as 17. I just can't imagine any decent player looking down at 66 in this spot and being like damn, I better open fold because I can't call a shove from the blinds. To be fair, this is a turbo which is mostly about pushbotting. It might be possible to have a 17% VPIP in a turbo if you pushbot well, even if you become a supernit opening 88+ AQ when the stacks get a little deeper. You'd know this better than I would since I don't play too many turbos.

As for the hand, I'd expect someone with those stats to be raising a lot of hands that are happy to get all-in vs. the short stacks but not vs. the blinds. I'd expect him to fold to a shove more than 50% of the time. I'd just shove but I don't think 3-betting small is bad. His stack is right near the borderline where you stop just shoving and start mixing in small 3-bets (with both bluffs and good hands). I usually start 3-betting small when the effective stacks are 10x the amount of the opening raise, but I've heard of other people using 8x. He'd have to be a good deal tighter than 17/12 for me to elect to just call preflop.

Now that is a good post and I'm not being condescending. You make some very decent points and presented some ideas that I didn't think about. Thanks for explaining further.

[TLR]

This is a shallow stack tournament just after the bubble, I would say villian's range is 22+, A7+, KT+, and your hand fares pretty good vs this range, I think I raise in this spot to about 8000

[baudib]

I guess we're not raise-folding, so why not just shove?

[baudib]

I guess we're not raise-folding, so why not just shove?

[Mr Bigcity]

I guess we're not raise-folding, so why not just shove?

good point.. I still would not shove with AJ to another big stack

[g1212]

Mcat I understand that if villian is only calling a shove with aa kk shoving any two would be profitable... However for one I guarantee he calls with ak and that alone making this a horrible horrible shove.... You don't usually raise the guy thats 2nd in chips BB without the top end of your range.... Because it's a turbo the whole table is looking for a flip to double up and some shorter stacks like CO and button will be sticking it in with 22+ and probably any ace...

So I really feel like we have to give this guy credit for a hand here and not shove and pray and go well it was +EV since he shouldn't call unless he has aa kk ak.... But when he does flip over that hand you ll realize you were in great chip position already and can find wayyyyyyyyyyyyy more profitable steals near the final table bubble than risking your tournament life on an unnessecary attempt to STEAL the measely 3000 (relative to your stack size) chips by shoving.

[Sprayed]

There's more at stake than 3000. There's like 6K in the pot. That's almost 20% of your stack. In these turbos you don't have time to wait for "a better spot". You must take advantage of all of your +EV spots. This is a good spot to do that.

[toto0001]

well you have a long stack and this mean that you could take some risks, like enter in a small raise with medium hands like a10, or aj after a raise.... 3000 is not a big bet considering your stack and your blinds.. your hand is good aj suit, so calling is the best option imo

[g1212]

Sprayed you're right and wrong IMO, there would be about 6k... but it remains the same... each chip you gain isn't as valuable as losing your tourney life.... Plus hero is second in chips!! I don't care if its a turbo (i play them I'm not like someone that hasn't experienced these), there is definitely time to wait for a better spot!!! Why mess with the only guy that can really kill you over 6k. In 8 minutes 2 blind steals will be 6k. Its absurd to shove here is all I'm saying... Just because you get ajs in a turbo doesn't mean you always have to play it. Most times absolutly but this is at least one of the best times that folding is a good option.

[baudib]

Our tournament life isn't at stake here, fyi. Although that doesn't change much.

[g1212]

It is close... and no it doesn't lol

[Squeaky_Midget1]

Spenda, I was reading a couple of your posts from Sprayed's thread on these tourneys. Maybe it's just me, but don't you think it's kind of funny you'll get it in and take flips in a 3way pot when you're 30% in the first levels to build a big stack but get timid shoving a top 5% hand against a LP raise on the final 2 tables when it's time to make a run for the win?

[mcatdog]

Mcat I understand that if villian is only calling a shove with aa kk shoving any two would be profitable... However for one I guarantee he calls with ak and that alone making this a horrible horrible shove.... You don't usually raise the guy thats 2nd in chips BB without the top end of your range....

Sounds like it'd be a great idea to raise the big stack's BB if the big stack is so terrified of the money that he's folding AJs to a late position raise.

Because it's a turbo the whole table is looking for a flip to double up and some shorter stacks like CO and button will be sticking it in with 22+ and probably any ace...

Exactly! He can raise with a bunch of hands that do well against the wide range CO and button will stick it in, but plan to fold if one of the blinds makes a move.

So I really feel like we have to give this guy credit for a hand here and not shove and pray and go well it was +EV since he shouldn't call unless he has aa kk ak.... But when he does flip over that hand you ll realize you were in great chip position already and can find wayyyyyyyyyyyyy more profitable steals near the final table bubble than risking your tournament life on an unnessecary attempt to STEAL the measely 3000 (relative to your stack size) chips by shoving.

If you wait until the final table bubble to do anything then your awesome stack is only going to be an average at best stack. I'm guessing you'd pass up a lot of those "way more profitable steals" too. Anyway let's see some math, what hands do you think this dude is raising with originally and how often do you expect him to call the all-in?

[bigspenda73]

HI I'M MCATDOG IM SO COOL THAT I'M NEVER ON AIM ANYMORE

I'M ALSO A DUMBASS COLTS/PACERS FAN

[Sprayed]

Sprayed you're right and wrong IMO, there would be about 6k... but it remains the same... each chip you gain isn't as valuable as losing your tourney life.... Plus hero is second in chips!! I don't care if its a turbo (i play them I'm not like someone that hasn't experienced these), there is definitely time to wait for a better spot!!! Why mess with the only guy that can really kill you over 6k. In 8 minutes 2 blind steals will be 6k. Its absurd to shove here is all I'm saying... Just because you get ajs in a turbo doesn't mean you always have to play it. Most times absolutly but this is at least one of the best times that folding is a good option.

There may never be a better spot. Spenda's not in the bestest of positions with his 11M stack. He's chips leader now and before he knows it he'll be just an average stack as the blinds come around. You can not pass up edges that you might have.

[BadAssOutlaw]

i say just call, see a flop and after that determine to stay or not.. if the flop looks good and its cheap to stay, then stay.. if he's betting strong and you're hand looks not so great, then fold.

[bigspenda73]

cool discussion on this one

results in white below:

I had 75o and folded ldo, just thinking about hands/spots