99 with undercards on flop ($6.50).

[Rage2100]

Is this ok pre-flop, and what do I do now? BB seemed a bit of a donk. What does his tiny bet mean on the flop? I don't like 99 here with four other players in the hand. Do I raise this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t3530)
UTG (t3580)
Hero (MP1) (t2980)
MP2 (t75)
CO (t1100)
Button (t720)
SB (t1515)

Hero's M: 66.22

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
UTG raises to t60, Hero calls t60, 1 fold, CO calls t60, 1 fold, SB calls t45, BB raises to t150, UTG calls t90, Hero calls t90, CO calls t90, SB calls t90

Flop: (t750) 2, 3, 8 (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets t120, UTG calls t120, Hero ??

[baudib]

Yeah, seriously lame, but I think we're peeling at least one here. You can make an argument for raising or folding I guess.

[gingerwizard]

What was your plan preflop?

My plan facing the UTG raise would have been call 60 and mine for sets.
When BB reraised having had other callers and with UTG flatting the reraise my plan would have been call 90 and mine for sets because I definitely have the implied odds if i hit

When I didn't hit my set on the flop I fold. If you call or raise you are destroying your implied odds preflop.

Even if, (with all the action preflop and the bet/call ahead on the unders flop), there are no higher pairs or sets out there, I'm not really bothered. I had a plan preflop, and now I should stick to it.

Fold, because if you keep betting and calling, you'll end up needing like 40x the bet in the minimum stack to have correct implied odds for set mining

[taipan168]

Bad spot for me. I take all the points that Ginger made but with like 9:1 pot odds I would probably still call and see a turn card since we have position on everybody but CO and give up to a lot more action on the turn.

[gingerwizard]

You should really review your minimum required implied odds for set mining then Tai

[taipan168]

You should really review your minimum required implied odds for set mining then Tai

With 9:1 odds I really think there is a small but sufficient chance that we're ahead here. BB and UTG have hands that we beat a non-zero percentage of the time.

[Nakamura]

Hmm ... I normally play this purely for set value. There are a lot of cards we don't like if we peel one off. A, K, Q, J, T all put an over-card on the board. 2, 3 or 8 pairs the board and may make trips for one of our opps. 4, 5, 6 may complete a straight.

What are you doing if an over-card hits? Or the board pairs? Given the fact that you are probably going to face a turn or river bet and whole lot of cards that force you to fold, I would probably just give up 3-way here. Against one loose opp I would probably be happy to peel one off.

[gingerwizard]

Even if the probability that neither player or the one behind has a set or an over pair was less than 10% which given the action is a stretch but not impossible, when combined properly with the probability of an overcard hitting the turn and the probability of facing large future bets without setting the turn, let alone probability that CO shoves behind you or the SB CRAI, I don't think 9-1 is nearly enough.

[WillburForce]

I'm feeling my way back into SitnGo's, and hopefully I'll be contributing more to this forum. But though I'm $50nl cash playa, take me a newbie to SNGs!

I'd prob raise here - make it say 500 to go. We've got an overpair, a biggish pot, with a 1 weak-ass bet, 1 weak-ass call. Why not try and take it down? If we get called, we see what the turn brings and re-evaluate, if we get shoved over erm.........

[gingerwizard]

Not enough to go to war on with 2 big stacks.

[drmcboy]

see the turn, we're only 20/1 to make a set on the turn and I think we can safely assume we'll double up if we hit since someone should have an over pair or set.

calling because you think you're ahead is bad, unless they give you another great price the turn is a fold.

anyone who thinks raising makes sense should be recommending a shove pre flop instead.

[grindinginnj]

I fold after not hitting set..

[Rage2100]

Thanks for the replies everyone.

I did fold this, mainly for the reasons given by gingerwizard and Nakamura, but then I thought I'd played it really weakly. I was thinking of calling, with the huge odds, and then thought I would have no idea where I was on the turn. I also thought maybe I should have raised, and tried to take the pot, which would have been a nice addition to my stack.

This is how the rest of the hand went. taipan and drmcboy suggested seeing a turn card. If I do this, I surely must call this all the way down, with the ever increasing odds. Does anyone raise at any point, or just call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t3530)
UTG (t3580)
Hero (MP1) (t2980)
MP2 (t75)
CO (t1100)
Button (t720)
SB (t1515)

Hero's M: 66.22

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
UTG raises to t60, Hero calls t60, 1 fold, CO calls t60, 1 fold, SB calls t45, BB raises to t150, UTG calls t90, Hero calls t90, CO calls t90, SB calls t90

Flop: (t750) 2, 3, 8 (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets t120, UTG calls t120, Hero folds, 2 folds

Turn: (t990) 5 (2 players)
BB bets t120, UTG calls t120

River: (t1230) 6 (2 players)
BB bets t120, UTG calls t120

Total pot: t1470

[gingerwizard]

I hate to say the rest is results orientated (because the rest illustrates my point rather nicely) but it is. The flop call would have been bad IMO, and only drmcboy's argument about peeling one for a set being good implied odds did anything to make me doubt that.

The problem is as illustrated: "I've got 9 to 1 pot odds" can turn into "I've got even more to 1 pot odds" and "I've got ridiculus to 1 pot odds." You played for set value, on boards like this you end up calling 3 streets, and if you can't see that the possibility of doing this changes the correctness of your preflop call you need to really think about it.

[drmcboy]

call turn, fold river. You'll see people make these plays sometimes with draws or weak hands, but since BB and UTG both raised I would feel comfy with a river fold even with that price. Just think of it like a limit hand where a tight player 3 bet pre flop. Plus you have an awesome story when they both table AK

Ginger I like the discipline but refusing to change a plan/read mid stream is poor thinking. Is the pre flop call +EV or not? Flop? Turn? Changing your generic pre flop plan based on the specific case that you have a bet and a call on an under board for 1/10 the pot does not make sense since you'll probably see it once a year. It's like trying to adjust for getting your boat beat by quads.

[gingerwizard]

The preflop call is +$EV given a set of actions you will take post flop. The new actions change the $EV of the preflop call because you are violating the assumptions.

I'll concede that it is like a once a year hand and that maybe you don't make your general preflop decision bad this one time. In general you shouldn't change the plan. Say a 1/2 pot bet and a call is a fold.

[drmcboy]

Sure, fold to a HPS bet, with or without a call. Again, I don't say call because I think we have the best hand. If we think that we should raise and should have re raised pre if we were not worried about over pairs. We call because I think we're paying 120 for a shot a 3k (note stack sizes of BB and UTG) + the current pot which is seems +EV when we will make the more or less nuts ~1/20 each time

[taipan168]

You are right, the main reason we should call the turn bet because of the implied odds of spiking another 9 on the turn rather than because we believe we are ahead here. That said, I do believe that there is a small chance we have the best hand, and surely that adds a little to the expected value of calling rather than folding?

[baudib]

I don't understand how we can call the flop, call the turn and then fold this river.

[drmcboy]

I don't think we have the best hand 1 in 30 let alone 1 in 15 or so.

[taipan168]

I don't think we have the best hand 1 in 30 let alone 1 in 15 or so.

It's a bit of an unknowable, but I would have thought there's at least 5% chance that BB has AK/AQ/66-77 and UTG has A8/missed overcards/44-77. I know you hate me saying it, but this is a $6.50...

[drmcboy]

I'm not going to argue over 5%, call if you like. we only beat 77 FWIW, re read the board

[taipan168]

I'm not going to argue over 5%, call if you like. we only beat 77 FWIW, re read the board

Sorry I should have clarified, I was talking about the flop decision not the subsequent ones.

[baudib]

Such a weird-ass hand. I think 77 is closer to the top of their range in this hand than the bottom though.

[gingerwizard]

This is the problem with hitting a flop of unders with a medium PP. People think there's a good chance they're ahead and call more streets. This destroys their implied odds of calling preflop for set value and hence they p**s away their EV.

In this case still having implied odds for our 2 outer makes the case somewhat unique. But thinking we might be ahead on the river and calling is exactly what ruins our implied odds