22 makes a set on the turn, runner runner flush on river

[taipan168]

No reads on either of these guys. Do you bet the river or check/call? As played I have to call the river raise, don't I?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1530)
MP1 (t1470)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1590)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1690)
Hero (SB) (t1480)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1300)

Hero's M: 49.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2
4 folds, MP3 calls t20, 1 fold, Button calls t20, Hero calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t80) 7, 6, 5 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, Button checks

Turn: (t80) 2 (4 players)
Hero bets t80, BB calls t80, 1 fold, Button calls t80

River: (t320) 9 (3 players)
Hero bets t160, BB calls t160, Button raises to t400, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Value Bet fold the river I think. I like your bet sizing

Pot odds roughly 6-1. You are beat 95% or more here so fold. No 2 pair hand or bluff is raising 2 opps here

[caddie444]

Well I'd play the hand the same up until the river. I really just don't like b/c here since it is highly likely that both opponents have draws on the turn. I'd find it just too unlikely that either one doesn't have the naked or combo draw 8 or a FD.

I bet the turn same as you, but c/c any river bet that is pot or less I guess.

I think this may be best because our hand has good showdown value. It just sucks being OOP here and I would likely bet if we were only up against one opponent. If we had position on one opponent, it would be an easy call if someone bet, and it would be an easy fold if we get c/r'ed.

Plus if we check and BB bets and Button raises (which happens often enough given this board) we can confidently fold. I just think our plan either has to be b/f, or to c/c any non re-raised bets, that river is just too scary IMO.

I also prefer c/c'ing because if BB bets then button calls we are getting good enough odds to call with what I would consider a medium strength hand in this spot.

[gingerwizard]

The third player makes this tricky. If it was HU then I b/f.

hands that will check behind but call a bet are still out there (2 pairs mainly or A9hh A7hh) and by vbetting we control the amount of money we put into the pot when behind. c/c could cost us 320 chips. No 2-pair hand could possibly raise this river IMO.

[drmcboy]

yeah i agree with ginger. don't forget if BU bets river we won't even close the action which makes c/c even more meh

[caddie444]

yeah i agree with ginger. don't forget if BU bets river we won't even close the action which makes c/c even more meh

After we check river how often does BB check a flush or a straight here? I'd have to say almost never, so we shouldn't really be worried about not closing the action in that situation...

It just seems to me like betting when the worst possible river card has just hit is bad business, I'd likely bet out if it were the 9d FWIW

[taipan168]

yeah i agree with ginger. don't forget if BU bets river we won't even close the action which makes c/c even more meh

After we check river how often does BB check a flush or a straight here? I'd have to say almost never, so we shouldn't really be worried about not closing the action in that situation...

It just seems to me like betting when the worst possible river card has just hit is bad business, I'd likely bet out if it were the 9d FWIW

The reason I value bet the river is that I don't give much credit for a runner runner flush (until of course somebody gives me reason to do so). There are still hands that might be out there (two pair hands, 9x, slowplayed overpairs, maybe even hands like A7) that will call a bet but will check behind if I check.

[drmcboy]

how often does someone bluff when the worst possible river card hits?

[taipan168]

how often does someone bluff when the worst possible river card hits?

Are you referring to opps thinking I'm bluffing or whether opps would ever bluff raise me after my river bet?

[gingerwizard]

I don't think he means the bluff raise.

[taipan168]

I don't see every hand that I beat folding to a HPS bet, even on this river.

[gingerwizard]

obv me neither. I do see 0 hands you beat raising your vbet

[taipan168]

I do see 0 hands you beat raising your vbet

Agree with this, and also agree with what drmcboy said which is that not closing the action sucks

[caddie444]

Ok I think I've learned a lot from this hand.

Basically what the point is (and I hope I'm correct here) is that we should v-bet the river expecting to have a solid hand against most of opp's calling ranges (which includes any 2 pair/1 pair hands, overpairs, maybe even hands with an 8) but we are obviously crushed by their r/r'ing ranges, and should thusly fold.

I think I initially just miscalculated our hand value on this river, because we still beat a large majority of hands that will call a v-bet