AK TPTK, opp keeps calling, river move? ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were something like 21/9 over the early stages of another tourney. Lead again or check/call on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1520)
MP3 (t1310)
Hero (CO) (t1470)
Button (t1450)
SB (t1460)
BB (t1810)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1480)

Hero's M: 49.00

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
5 folds, Hero raises to t80, Button calls t80, 2 folds

Flop: (t190) J, K, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t150, Button calls t150

Turn: (t490) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t250, Button calls t250

River: (t990) 3 (2 players)
Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Well you have the Ac so that for me means he's less likely to be flushing. Hence he willbe unlikely to bluff the river and a vbet seems good. AJ, KQ, KT, QJ, even maybe TT,99,88 (but less likely) will call a bet but check behind.

[taipan168]

If you v-bet the river and opp shoves over, are you calling?

[mcatdog]

You have a pot-sized bet left don't you? Just go all-in.

[gingerwizard]

good point.

[baudib]

I think you're less likely to get a call from worse when you flop the K than the A, but I still think you shove the river here.

[gingerwizard]

Hey Baudib. Don't understahd your point here. Alright if you elaborate?

[taipan168]

Nobody's worried about being beat here, particularly against a non-idiot player?

[cardplayer52]

Well what types of hands does he have? He may have a set but the flops has lots of draws. the hand here that make the most sense to me is QTs as he would have mad outs. If you check the river I think you got to be ready to call any bet. As his busted flush or straight draws may bluff. I don't think he got a set or 2 pair as I think he plays back atleast on the turn w/all those draws out there. I may through in another vbet on the river of 450 to 500. But here I don't think your vbet is getting called by worse hands. Its early so checking isn't bad. But you got to be ready to call if bet too. So If your not willing to go broke here vbet 500. Then fold to a shove. Otherwise check and call his all-in.

[taipan168]

the hand here that make the most sense to me is QTs as he would have mad outs.

If he had QTs on the flop he would probably shove over (or at least I would).

If you check the river I think you got to be ready to call any bet.

Agreed

I may through in another vbet on the river of 450 to 500. But here I don't think your vbet is getting called by worse hands.

I'm sure that KQ, KT and maybe even hands like AJ will call

So If your not willing to go broke here vbet 500. Then fold to a shove. Otherwise check and call his all-in.

Betting 500 and then folding to a shove would be awful. If we bet 500 and get shoved over, there would be 2000 chips in the pot and it would be 500 for us to call, we can't fold TPTK with those odds.

[drmcboy]

Nobody's worried about being beat here, particularly against a non-idiot player?

would you in a million years play a hand better than AK this way? I'd be a lot more worried if he was an idiot but either way the money goes in.

[trilerian]

Nobody's worried about being beat here, particularly against a non-idiot player?

No, I have a hard time seeing a non-idiot player letting me set my own price to draw to a straight or flush when it is definitely in my range. I think you see KQ, AQ, AJ and maybe JQ, J10 a lot more often than you see a set or better two pair. I make it 500 on the river and call shoves.

[TLR]

Nobody's worried about being beat here, particularly against a non-idiot player?

I dont see any hand that beat you and is played this way, I think his most likely hand is either a missed draw or something like KQ/AJ, and maybe a combo of both (KQ clubs for example)
In the first case c-c is the best line because you will not get called if you bet and he may bet if you check, in the 2nd case betting will get you more value since you may get called, I would throw in a small value bet that may be called by KQ/AJ (like 1/3 of the pot) and call a shove

[gingerwizard]

Yeah I prefer the smaller vbet but calling a shove.

If you're beat take notes, cos that is sure one weird way to play KJ or a set

[taipan168]

Thanks for the advice, as it turned out I checked and he AI bluffed the river with a busted flush draw.