5/10: bet bet shove

[pocketfours]

This hand makes my head spin. Villain is a good TAG regular at 23/21/3.

I am BB. My range after calling the turn vs this guy on this board is 66/77/JJ/QQ/AhKh/AhQh, virtually never anything else. There's only 4 combos of 66/77 and 14 combos of the rest, so if I fold everything but 66/77 then I'm folding 78% of the time, but I only need to fold more than 61% for a bluff to show profit.

What's the correct action with JJ/QQ here? Flip a coin? Does that make him shove AA/KK for value?

Button ($979)
SB ($410)
BB ($1000)
UTG ($2305)
MP ($2432.50)
CO ($1972)

Preflop:
UTG raises to $35, 4 folds, BB calls $25

Flop: ($75) 6, 7, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $55, BB calls $55

Turn: ($185) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $150, BB calls $150

River: ($485) 3 (2 players)

BB checks, UTG bets $2065 (All-In), BB?

840 for me to call...

[griffey24]

Meh, crappy spot given that we're at the top of our range and he knows his range is perceived to be strong.

I probably just fold this river pretty often though, he's overshoving and he knows the draws missed. Depends what level he's on I guess. I think I fold.

[Alexos]

I would think he's always shoving TT+ for value here as it's not that thin.

Although, Id assume your perceived range is a lot weaker than the hands u mentioned (im sure he could put u on 88-JJ as well and some other draws), so I'm def calling JJ/QQ here for sure just because I can see him value towning himself a bit.

If your perceived range is rly what you mentioned and he knows that somehow, then yeah fold, but i doubt it unless you're a nit or something.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

if i had AA here i think i'd fold.

[pocketfours]

If your perceived range is rly what you mentioned and he knows that somehow, then yeah fold, but i doubt it unless you're a nit or something.

We only have 200 hands together so I'm pretty much unknown. But OOP against a very good player, yeah, I'm a nit. I also generally don't play passive poker with marginal holdings (especially OOP). Good to know that my perceived range is wider by def.

I had QQ and was planning to SNAP call the river, but I didn't expect this.

[nutsinho]

dont try to work backwords in order to solve what you should do. the vast majority of opponents arent going to be going for ambitious mathematical bluffs in these spots

[Alexos]

ohhh i thought he bet pot on the river... my bad

[griffey24]

For what it's worth, if I did flat JJ/QQ in this spot, I'd probably donk lead three streets here and expect lots of his midpairs to call down.

[IowaSkinsFan]

id fold QQ/JJ for sure.

[mcatdog]

dont try to work backwords in order to solve what you should do.

Really? I think like this all the time. What am I going to do now that I know my whole thought process is baseless?

[pocketfours]

The more I think about this hand the more I think it's a call. The overbet just seems to make a lot more sense as a bluff than as a value bet.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think you can justify the reasoning of opp overbetting here as a bluff, but he also raised UTG, bet the flop and bet the turn.