KJo Button Final Three

[chincheck]

Villain was 34/4 through 139 hands. I tried to bully the final 2 tables we were on together.

750/1500 Blinds 175 Ante (3 handed) -

SB (t33816)
BB (t107675)
Hero (Button) (t38509)

Hero's M: 13.88

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
Hero raises to t3800, 1 fold, BB calls t2300

Flop: (t8875) , , (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t5700, BB raises to t103700 (All-In), Hero ???

[Cougar]

Too many hands beat us here IMHO, villain probably not drawing, maybe bluffing (10-20%??). Looks like a pair with straight draw (Kx or Qx?), two pair, maybe even a made straight (dangerous to slow play on that board).

Don't think we beat enough hands to pay a pretty steep price.

The "experts" may disagree but I fold this one and try and find a better spot.

[baudib]

I think with the stack sizes and his likely image of you, he is doing this with all of his flush draws and all of his 10s.

[drmcboy]

shrug and call.


if you fold betting the flop is epic bad since you have to expect to be CR by a lot 'worse' than second pair here. But I also hate checking the flop.

[sk8r_daniel]

You have to call 29,000 into 49,000 so you are getting about 1.7 to 1 on a call which is favourable.

You have middle pair with a good kicker, which beats middle pair + a draw, or bottom pair and a draw. It also beats flush draws and straight draws.

You are behind top pair, 2 pair, a set and a straight.
He would likely have reraised preflop with any pair to make a set so you can rule that out. Many players would try to value bet instead of shoving all in if they had a straight, so that is less likely. (Although its still possible he is trying to make his hand look like a bluff.)

So the likely hands he has that beat you are Top pair+top pair and draw combinations and 2 pair.

Also take into consideration how much you will gain from the pot if you win. You will have a stack of 78,000 and your opponent will have fallen slightly below that. If you keep folding marginal positions with an ever decreasing M the chip leader is simply going to run over you. If you fold you will have 29,000 and he will have 120,000 or so.

Considering the favourable pot odds, likilihood he is on a draw, your ability to improve(slight edge) and your need to double up I would call.

[bikes]

cbet way too big. I would fold based on ICM.

[sk8r_daniel]

Why is his continuation bet too big? Just wondering what your thought process is here. I suppose because half pot gets the same information.

In early rounds half pot continuation bets don't work very well. But when it is 3 handed do they work at a greater frequency?

So are you folding hoping to squeeze into 2nd place? Is that what you mean by folding based on ICM?

[BadAssOutlaw]

very tough call.. gotta fold it though and live to see another hand.. tough one though

[mcatdog]

shrug and call.

Yeah I'm not in a hurry to fold here either, we're getting good pot odds and we can't be in that bad of shape against his range. ICM is pretty huge though, probably makes this a check behind on the flop but I'd definitely bet/call under normal circumstances.

[drmcboy]

these are always the ICM spots that confuse me - would it matter if we had KQ? It seems like if BB knew we were going to fold a hand as good as KJ on this board he could just call any raise we make (in general, not just this hand) and move us off the pot whenever he felt like it. Are we better off open folding?

[Sir Pawnalot]

I do not like aggressive-weak lines like that. Strong, strong, weak.
Besides you flopped a pretty high pair. Fold is weak here IMO.

[cardplayer52]

This bet screams draw to me. Or very weak Q but he called and didnt raise pre. I think to many people use the stop and go. The bet size just doesn't make sense. If he had a made hand he would get more be letting you cbet right? Would he let you off without a bet? I call hope to dodge the outs. Even a good draw goes for a check/raise all in right?

[Mr Bigcity]

gotta fold it way to many hands can beat you here ..

[baudib]

um, the pot is also too ginormous to fold and there's too many hands we beat here.