Stats after 1st 100 sit and gos

[rudefella]

I've been playing MTTs for a long time, but this is my first real attempt to play sngos seriously, and have learned a lot from the posts here. Here are my Stats for first 100 sngos, all $2.25, 9 max, some turbos and some regular

1st 18x
2nd 17x
3rd 13x
4th 18x
5th 17x
6th 8x
7th 4x
8th 4x
9th 2x

ITM: 48%
Winnings: $183.60
Win Rate: $1.83 per game

I figure I'll play another 100 games, and if I can keep this up I'll move up to playing some $5.50 games.

Comments?

[gingerwizard]

No offense, and well done on running well, but 100 is not enough to tell you anything.

By the time you've played enough so that stats are meaningful, you'll be a different player. Just keep reviewing your game and you'll be fine.

[taipan168]

I agree with Ginger's comments, your sample size is too small. That said, provided you are making good decisions (post hands and tourneys to find out!) there's nothing else to worry about. Nice that your bankroll is increasing too.

[Mr Bigcity]

those are some impressive stats over a 100 sample.

[rudefella]

I know I'm probably running hot, and I understand that it is a small sample, but it seems there are a lot of bad players at the $2.00 +0.25 who have no idea what they are doing - lot's of limping, raising and then folding when they should be shoving, folding the SB to the BB when they should be shoving almost any 2, and then getting frustrated with the shove game and calling off with weaker than they should. I also see lots of players who don't know how to play heads up, and lot's of players who don't know how to dominate the bubble when they get a big stack (that's something I've gotten better at, but still could work on). I think you can show a good profit at this level even with modest leaks in your game - I know I have leaks in my shove/fold game; and also in knowing when (and when not) to c-bet the flop in the first couple of rounds (when something like AK misses)

Something I was hoping for was a sense of what you should be running, even if my stats don't mean much being so small. Could someone point me to a post that has some guidelines for ROI and ITM for various levels of sngo play? I assume there is no way you can keep an ITM = 50% as you move up.

Also, I think what is interesting, is that all of the money I make is essentially by getting fist place. My second and third place finishes basically just make up for the times that I don't make the money. I think the games are so weak that perhaps the most important part of the game is how little I've gone out 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th. Usually 1-3 players bust on in the first couple of levels with hands they never should be playing. With that alone, my equity sky rockets even with leaks. I assume that as you move up, players don't bust out so stupidly so early, and fixing the small leaks become much more where the profit is made or lost.

[gingerwizard]

There's stuff floating around but I assure you it is irrelevant.

Players owning a level move up before they get enough of a sample to see if it was a steady winrate or if they were just running hot. Then they move up and ROI goes down etc, but then they get better and so on. If you're winning and comfortable making the move, do it.

Your assessment of why micros are so easy to beat is spot on. 1-3 players bust out with ridiculous hands early increasing your equity. Their majorly negative ROI is shared between you and the other sensible players. Then people are poor when blinds are high, they leak $EV to you even when you're not in the hands.

As you move up, you meet more winning players, and less losing ones, so roi and itm%s must go down. Of course if you can still beat the games $$ goes up!

Players still do bust stupidly early as you move up. Just less of them and not always. Fixing the small leaks I think won't become important until much higher up (maybe the $60s?). Until then there are enough people bad at ICM, that a superb knowledge of it will see you crush the games (Of course that knowledge needs to get better at every level, and by crushing the games I mean having a +roi and playing lots and lots).

I'm not sure how high you'd be able to be winning before learning good ICM skills.

[Sir Pawnalot]

I do not think your awesome win rate is due to positive variance. Your post show that you have understood and applying a basic winning strategy against most sng players. Well done.

However- I think it is relatively EV- for you to play 2.5 dollar sng compared to 10 or 20 dollar sng. Your ROI may be slightly lower, but the games are almost as easy. Besides I found out that micro sng players will not fold as often as small stakes players will when the blinds are bigger.

When you have stolen 3 blinds in a row just type: "Sick run of cards"
Tighten up an orbit or two and do the same thing again.

If u feel they are fed up with your raises- they might shove any two. Just call their 3 bet- that adds plenty of fold equity the rest of the sng.

Good luck

[Deuce Blue]

However- I think it is relatively EV- for you to play 2.5 dollar sng compared to 10 or 20 dollar sng. Your ROI may be slightly lower, but the games are almost as easy. Besides I found out that micro sng players will not fold as often as small stakes players will when the blinds are bigger.

When you have stolen 3 blinds in a row just type: "Sick run of cards"
Tighten up an orbit or two and do the same thing again.

If u feel they are fed up with your raises- they might shove any two. Just call their 3 bet- that adds plenty of fold equity the rest of the sng.

Good luck

Wat?? BAD advice.

[grindinginnj]

I think you should be very proud of your results, keep it up!

[momoznutz]

Sounds like your well on your way to moving up a level.

Congrats!

[Sir Pawnalot]

Deuce Blue- Do not be so quick to judge a well intended advice.

This guy sounds like a talent and I think he is wasting his time playing 2,5.

Just because I did not use the word "depend", does not mean I do not know what I am talking about.

My ROI in 10 dollar SNG was around 30, before i started to really get aggressive late game. My ROI is know 60%. I owe that to being able to keep the illussion that you are still tight with well timed gear changes.

I was not saying call all 3 bets late. But often you get tremendous odds with surprisingly good equity against most hands. This style gives lots of first prizes.

[gingerwizard]

Sir Pawnalot. Congratulations on your insanely high return on investment and welcome to flopturnriver. We are very friendly here and will try to answer any questions you may have.

Your advice to the poster is very bad and for reasons you don't understand which is ok.

A sit and Go tournament is a zero sum game, which is maths speak for "if you do everything perfectly, and I do everything perfectly, we all break even after enough games." Because it is like this, there are, based on any prior range assumptions you have made perfect decisions. That is mathematically perfect. Perfect in the sense that doing anything else will lose you money. (and the more your opponents stray from the correct solution the more you make from them)

There is a lot of reading and learning for you to do before you understand how we figure out what these perfect decisions are and how we come to know what they are in-game. Please read all of the stickies in this section and learn all you can. Suffice it to say that for now your advice to the original poster suggests ignoring mathematics and trying a different recipe. This if followed would lead to many situations where the advice suggests haemoerraging money.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Gingerwizard-

"Your advice to the poster is very bad and for reasons you don't understand which is ok."-

You must have completely misread my response. I was talking about late game sitandgo.

My only advice was for him too keep playing the way he was- TAG EARLY, LAG LATE, only at higher stakes. And timing his gear changes wisely.

I know a ROI of 60 sounds high- it is 65% after 75 games of 10 dollar at my. That is positive variance. I had around 40% after 200 games of 10 dollar at Pokerroom, and less than 30 after several hundred at Party. I have evolved as a player and exploit the standard winning style players in addition to the fish and therefore sustain a higher winrate than previous.

I have bordeline asperger syndrome and this is not my native language- so my posts may seem offending. I do not care for peoples feelings too much, since I am happy go lucky myself.

Please refrain from making too quick judgements on people.

I joined this forum for two reasons.

1. To learn more about the game of poker in a friendly atmosphere.

2. To share and discuss some concepts which make me a winning player

[taipan168]

Any ROI statistic that is measured over less than 1000 games at the same level is so small a sample size as to be meaningless (apart from indicating whether you are likely to be a winning or losing player).

[Sir Pawnalot]

Well- I agree the sample is very small, about 500 or so.

However, i was playing severely overrolled against players on a very fishy site. I played only one table at a time, for short sessions- playing my absolute best poker possible at all times.

I do not play SitnGo much anymore, but the original poster nailed the basics of winning SitnGo tactics in this post- maximize equity early game and maximize fold equity later game.

[gingerwizard]

and I thought my post was polite and informative

[Sir Pawnalot]

Ginger- I thought your post was the original posters.

Sorry, still- I think anyone with an above average intelligence can beat 10 dollar sngs playing super tight early and loosesning up in late game.

[dollabill315]

good start. 100 is a good number to review on but i say like 500 is a good time to look into moving up a level.

[gingerwizard]

Yes you can beat them doing that. But are you maximising your expectation?

[Sir Pawnalot]

Maximizing expectation is what we all try to do.

But this is the beginners forum, right? I believe people with less experience are better off avoiding difficult spots early in a sit and go- rather than pushing tiny edges.

Since average pot sizes often get out of hand in SNG- any hand played is a potentially all in spot versus "I saw Ivey do it on tv"

Taipan- 100 games is not statistically insignificant. Rather- his winnings should reinforce his confidence in his game and help him grow as a player.
As he improves he is even more likely to continue winning.

[drmcboy]

I don't think ginger has a problem with the tight early, it's the 'loose' late. There are spots where you open it up late but often you need to play ridiculously tight late due to ICM (check out the stickies).\

At the lower limits you should move up when your BR allows it and you feel ready, stats should not really enter into the equation.

[gingerwizard]

This aint the beginners forum it's the SNG forum. (although we welcome beginners of course)

ICM provides the answer in 99% late game push/fold situations as to what your maximum expectation play is.

Running well is good but it don't mean you're getting every decision right (who is?). The more you work on this stuff the more leaks you fix and the more your $EV converges to it's maximum. The "loose" late will hide a myriad of mistakes you didn't even know about, but will often still have you doing the right thing, hence you're winning.

All I'm trying to do is point you and the original poster in the direction of ICM, the stuff that tells you what is and is not correct.

100 games is not statistically significant. Take it from a statistician. His winnings may reinforce his confidence in his game or it may make him overconfident and not tempted to study.

[Sir Pawnalot]

It is quite difficult to play a sucessfull loose game late because it requires good reads and a good grasp of the other players tendencies and strategies.

An ICM machine will help you play perfect push/fold poker- but, as said earlier, it will not take into account emotions and neither sudden, erratic gear changes.

Late game SitnGo is war for the blinds. At 100/200 the blinds represent 20% of starting stack. That is equal to two dollars in 10 dollar sng.

Now a 3BB bet will force almost anyone to go all in or fold. Since fold is often the best option- given the GAP concept, this move will succeed often. (Not thrash hands oc)

Most 3 bets will give you tremendous odds to call, but not always the needed equity. However- the more crazy you are in late game- the more will people lose patience. They get frustrated because they have zero fold equity against you (or so they believe) and start doing mistakes.

[Sir Pawnalot]

3 ways of increasing fold equity in late game

1. Be friendly at the table.
Start with a GL and some NH now and then.

2. Create an illusion of a solid TAG- requires delicate gear changes.

3. Show that you are not afraid to take a gamble.

[flomo]

Sir P.
you ever play on stars?

[Sir Pawnalot]

No Stars for me yet. I am happy playing a small, fishy site.

[Kijjo]

Man, what a tense thread. Goodnight people like to bicker.

Rudefella, good job on your first 100. I THINK IT'S GREAT THAT AFTER 100 GAMES YOU HAVE THE PRESENCE OF MIND TO SIT BACK AND ANALYZE SOME STATS and try to figure out where you stand. While it's not "statistically significant" it's FABULOUS that you care enough about the quality of your game to see how you're doing outside the game, on paper.

In my opinion, you should move up unless you feel unready. Is there another game before $5? If so, move up gradually. You've got the bankroll for it (unless you've been withdrawing or losing $ in other ways you haven't mentioned) and you'll find the difference isn't as big as you think.
I've sat at $1.20 tables that are harder (have better players) than some of the $10+1 tables I've played. So I truly believe at these lower levels, the difficulty of the game is determined far more by the random assortment of players you happen to sit down with than by the buy-in levels (I know everyone thinks higher buy-ins=tougher players, I'd say in my experience on Stars, we're probably talking a table average ROI difference of >10% on average - big deal).

[Sir Pawnalot]

Nice reply

I would love to learn about ICM- where to go?

[drmcboy]

you can start with the stickies/FAQ right here

[taipan168]

Nice reply

I would love to learn about ICM- where to go?

The series of articles here is a decent summary - http://www.chillin411.com/node/7

Late game SitnGo is war for the blinds. At 100/200 the blinds represent 20% of starting stack. That is equal to two dollars in 10 dollar sng.

That's exactly what ICM will tell you is incorrect - chips are NOT equal to cash in a tourney. Say in a $10 SNG with 10 players and no rake and 50/30/20 payout, if you win all the chips on the table you only win $50 despite the fact that the cost to the 10 players to buy all those chips was $100.

[gingerwizard]

The $1.10 sngs are tougher than the higher buyins?

Is that like 10NL is wayyyyyy harder to beat than 25NL?

[drmcboy]

you don't really think that's what he said.

[Sir Pawnalot]

That link was awesome.

Of course I knew chips was not equal to money- it was just to show that the blinds are a substantial part of chips in play at late game.

I believe Mike Caro talked about this once. The winner has to give away 50% of his chips to second and third.

How do you use ICM versus someone who is crazy on the bubble?

[gingerwizard]

You open up their shoving range as wide as you think reflects reality and then find out what the greatest expectation play is with your two cards. An ICM calc or program like SNGWIZ will calculate this for you. You cannot and do not have time to compute in game, but with study and practice you'll start to recognise the correct actions

[Sir Pawnalot]

OK, I understand now how a EV+ move (in cashgame) becomes EV- in SNG because of the underlying principles of ICM.

1st place is still paying more than 2nd and 3rd, and I believe in gunning for first when 4 players left, especially with 3 left.

[gingerwizard]

The probability of finishing first as opposed to 2nd or third given the stacks under each scenario dictated by your actions is taken into account by ICM. Basically if ICM says fold, it means that the extra probability of getting first by winning here is not made up for by the times you lose.

Interestingly you should play tighter in general when 3 players are left because potential gains in equity are smaller (given you have minimum of 20% now as opposed to 0)

[Sir Pawnalot]

Kijjo wrote:

"Man, what a tense thread. Goodnight people like to bicker. "

I learned a lot from this thread. If that is what you call bickering I would love to bicker some more...