44 flops a set, opp keeps calling ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 9/5/2.3 over 220 hands. Check behind on the river or shove? If I shove, what worse hands will call my bet and what better hands will fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t600)
SB (t1460)
BB (t1460)
UTG (t1380)
UTG+1 (t1510)
MP1 (t2600)
Hero (MP2) (t1600)
MP3 (t1420)
CO (t1470)

Hero's M: 35.56

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4, 4
3 folds, Hero calls t30, 3 folds, SB calls t15, BB checks

Flop: (t90) 7, 4, Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets t90, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, BB calls t210

Turn: (t690) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t450, BB calls t450

River: (t1590) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Seems like decent vbet opportunity. His line looks like TP wants show down

[TLR]

Since he is in the BB he can have anything, he seems like a tight passive player, he definitely has something on this flop and it can be something like Qx+FD, Q7 or OESD with or without FD, the 8d is a bad card for you since it completed both str8 and flush draws, I would check behind here

[drmcboy]

shove, tight players won't usually slow play these boards with sets or play flush draws this way/at all. Also you only have like 800 left right? I could see a check with 2k behind or something but not with half the pot

[Da GOAT]

shove it in since its only 1/2 pot.

[Sir Pawnalot]

This is an ez fold. By folding you are not giving away information about how you played your set.

Fold and show is even better...doh- you really need the nuts to valuebet??

[Da GOAT]

This is an ez fold. By folding you are not giving away information about how you played your set.

Fold and show is even better...doh- you really need the nuts to valuebet??

wtf at fold

[gingerwizard]

This is an ez fold. By folding you are not giving away information about how you played your set.

Fold and show is even better...doh- you really need the nuts to valuebet??

wtf at fold

think he attempted sarcasm goat. Either way it wasn't very clever, or friendly, or funny, or useful.

[Gore Blimey]

His play is pretty much inexplicable given his stats unless he has a hand on the margin where he just felt the ICM tax made shoving over bad but he couldn't fold. TLR's handreading seems spot on to me and I'd expect to be shown one of the draws.

It's conceivable, I suppose, that he has AQ and that might pay you off, but I wouldn't count on getting paid by anything else.