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is this a bad play here??

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  1. #1

    Default is this a bad play here??

    Its not me but the guy makes a play w/ a flush draw. I'm thinking here the play isn't all that bad. I know he's behind here but the a shove here may get AA,QQ,JJ to fold right? Also I know he doesn't have odds but he does get 1/3 of a chance to take a huge pot. It was late toward the bubble. With the pot here big enough to sit to money.


    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 120/240 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB (t3395)
    UTG (t17693)
    UTG+1 (t3535)
    Hero (MP1) (t10386)
    MP2 (t9715)
    CO (t2300)
    Button (t10465)
    SB (t12122)

    Hero's M: 18.55

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5, 6
    UTG raises to t480, UTG+1 calls t480, Hero calls t480, 3 folds, SB calls t360, BB calls t240

    Flop: (t2600) K, K, 8 (5 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets t720, UTG+1 raises to t3030 (All-In), Hero folds, 2 folds, UTG calls t2310

    Turn: (t8660) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: (t8660) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Total pot: t8660

    Results:
    UTG had Q, K (three of a kind, Kings).
    UTG+1 had 3, 2 (one pair, Kings).
    Outcome: UTG won t8660
  2. #2
    pre flop is really terrible, he doesn't have near a deep enough a stack to play the hand, although imo there is no stack deep enough in this spot.

    i think your call is pretty marginal and you have a much deeper stack and a bit better position. I would fold the 56 unless this table has been extremely passive and you have a really good read on the UTG guys. Even if you think UTG can be outplayed it's tough to outplay UTG-1 with 1.5 bets left.

    Back to 32s, flop is great if he gets QQ- to fold. I hope you would not seriously consider folding AA here as UTG. My guess is most people would call with 99+. You also fold out Ax, so it's great heads up, and mandatory given he called pre flop with 32s. If he folds now pre flop is so bad I can't even describe it. you could probably argue he may as well just call and try and draw more people in if he makes a flush and it's really hard to believe everyone missed this flop.

    the problem is we aren't heads up and it's pretty easy for someone to have a K which they would of course check to the pre flop raiser. Again pre flop is biggest problem - he has poor absolute AND relative position. Or they can have a bigger FD which they will probably gamble with given the pot size and he's drawing more or less dead.

    With an Ax FD it's much better on the flop since we're flipping vs PPs and may get dead money from a worse FD. However, he should shove or fold almost any hand with his stack size, certainly vs a raise.
  3. #3
    I think drmc has this nailed.
    In the book 'the mathematics of poker' Ackerman gives a proof that shoving with AXs flush draw has positive EV as long as the X is an overcard to the board, otherwise it has negative expectation.
    I would have folded all these hands preflop

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