am I crazy for thinking I can value shove this? 400nl

[meeloche]

Villain is a passive fish running like 27/8. I've been just pounding on him for a while. A couple of orbits ago in a similar spot to this he c/r the flop small and I folded. In this spot preflop he probably has been calling 70% folding 30%. (I'm guessing)

Value shove?

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($768.60)
MP ($404)
Button ($473.30)
SB ($669.35)
Hero (BB) ($642)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, Q
3 folds, SB calls $2, Hero raises $16, SB calls $16

Flop: ($40) Q, K, 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($100) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $70, SB raises $140, Hero calls $70

River: ($380) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $452 (All-In)

[griffey24]

Ugh to the 3bet pre, but I guess if he's been folding its ok.....

I probably check back this flop a lot, cause you're gonna get raised a fair bit on a flop like this.

As played, after his turn c/r I think he's mega polarized. He either has air, or has you owned and put you on a draw with the intention of c/c.

I check this back... no value I don't think. You're gonna get value towned by his two pair, flush, tryin to get you to bluff.

[nutsinho]

i dont think shoving accomplishes a whole lot. i also dont know why youd want to pump it up pre with Q2o if hes calling 70% of the time unless you have some rock solid postflop reads

[Alexos]

preflop just check it
flop cbet is fine vs passive fish
turn fine
river id rather just half pot so he can call with worse, shove seems bad unless u have a soulread that he'll call it with worse

[Renton]

turn isn't a fold?