AKo flops a gutshot + 2 overs, K on turn ($27)

[taipan168]

UTG's stats were 14/11 over 92 hands from previous tourneys (not filtered). No reads on Button. How is this line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) (t1490)
MP2 (t1430)
CO (t1510)
Button (t1550)
SB (t1520)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)

Hero's M: 49.67

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
UTG raises to t60, 2 folds, Hero calls t60, 2 folds, Button calls t60, 2 folds

Flop: (t210) J, 9, 10 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets t60, UTG calls t60, Hero calls t60

Turn: (t390) K (3 players)
UTG bets t120, Hero calls t120, Button calls t120

River: (t750) 8 (3 players)
UTG bets t120, Hero calls t120

[gingerwizard]

I fold the turn.

None filtered stats like that mean he's ultra tight early. His flop cc having raised UTG is further evidence of this, and now there's 4 to a straight out there, I don't think this type of player chooses now to bluff.

In addition button could have a vast range of hands that beat you, and given he led flop, there is a decent chancer he'll 3bet after you. What rivers do you like and how much will you call?

[mcatdog]

I fold the turn.

Me too, I think UTG has AK as well and it's not worth calling down for a chop. You could consider bluff-raising the turn because I really don't think UTG is very strong, but I think the fact that the Button is still to act and could easily have a straight would convince me to take the safe path and just fold.

[TLR]

I would reraise preflop.

I am trying to follow the logic of mcatdog and ginger about folding turn but calling flop, we called the flop bet, which was 60 into a 330 pot.
The cards that may help our hand are 4xQ, 3xK and 3xA.
You are folding if a K hits, so basically you are waiting for the Q or A, 7 outs, so roughly 14% to hit on the turn. If an A hit I can make the argument that AJ/AT/A9 are definitly within opp's range.
I think that calling the flop hoping to hit a Q is a bit thin, so I can see a case of folding the flop or calling the flop and turn

[gingerwizard]

Well I never said call flop, but I don't hate the flop call. UTG suddenly leading after c/c flop makes me want to fold the turn.

[Gore Blimey]

I don't mind folding the flop. It's hard to put legitimate hands in either guy's range that you actually improve against if you hit a K, you can easily be behind AJ/AT too, and only 3 Qs really make you love your hand. I don't hate calling given the odds and button's really weak bet. You'd kind of expect a bit bigger bet with hands that have paired and have draws too. The turn I fold for sure. The board is all over UTG's range, and I agree with gingerwizard that you're pretty much calling for the chop. We don't even close the action and although Qx probably isn't much of button's range (bet on flop seems more likely to be some sort of stab than QJ-Q9), it's in there.

You probably should have cut the action at the turn decision point, because your call looks a lot better when you see that button just called and UTG led small again.

[taipan168]

I think you guys are right, I should have folded the turn. Do we still fold the turn if Button isn't in the hand so we close the action and UTG bets 30% of the pot?

[gingerwizard]

I don't call.

Perhaps a raise is good, but personally the spot sucks. Although my thinking would be different because we wouldn't have had the c/c on flop if the button wasn't in hand

[Gore Blimey]

Hmmm. It would be pretty tough without button on the turn. I'd be really tempted to call down.