QQ, AKx flop, any point value betting turn or river? ($27)

[taipan168]

This is first hand. No reads on SB but MP3 is a seriously winning 2+2er who I know well and who I think knows me.

Is there any point value betting either the turn or (more likely) the river, particularly with the A pairing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero raises to t80, 2 folds, MP3 calls t80, 2 folds, SB calls t70, 1 fold

Flop: (t260) 5, K, A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: (t260) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: (t260) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

no, just c/c

[mcatdog]

You can throw out a tiny bet if you want, maybe even a minbet, more to get SB to call than MP. I don't think MP is ever putting another chip into the pot no matter what. I think that's what I'd do.

[givememyleg]

I think a bet of 100 or so is good.

[Gore Blimey]

There's no point betting imo. Your hand is face up to MP3, and he'll fold his pair, and SB isn't all that likely to have anything he wants to call you with.

[TLR]

I would not bet this, you will not get called by anything you beat and you may get called by a weak K

[rudefella]

I would not bet this, you will not get called by anything you beat and you may get called by a weak K

+1

[mcatdog]

Guys, thin value bets pay the bills. If you have the best hand at least 95% of the time then just bet. You guys play poker, you've seen what horrible calls people make all the time, why wouldn't you give them a chance to make a mistake when you're good sooooo often here?

Also TLR, what part of the action makes you think either villain has a weak K? What weak K would a "seriously winning player" call an early position raise with? Why wouldn't the SB bet a weak K on the river with the ace pairing? It just doesn't make sense for either of them to have one.

[gingerwizard]

mp3 folds everything except an A most likely (can't see him calling many Ks)

SB is calling with what? his line looks like PP who saw the AK flop and shut down.

Since I can't think of a hand that calls, I can't see how this is a value bet.

[mcatdog]

mp3 folds everything except an A most likely (can't see him calling many Ks)

SB is calling with what? his line looks like PP who saw the AK flop and shut down.

Since I can't think of a hand that calls, I can't see how this is a value bet.

Well it sounds like you realize we're ahead but just don't think the SB will call a bet, if that's the case you just need to make your bet smaller.

[TLR]

We are probably ahead, but will probably not get called, if we are behind we will probably get called,

[mcatdog]

We are probably ahead, but will probably not get called, if we are behind we will probably get called,

I agree but that doesn't make a bet bad. If we're ahead 90% of the time, and when we're ahead we only get called 25% of the time, but get called 100% of the time when we're behind, we still have the best hand 70% of the time when called.

I think you are vastly overestimating how often we are behind here.

[TLR]

if your % are correct and there is a 0% of c-r bluff it is a bet, change the numbers a bit to 80/20 ahead with 1% chnce of c-r bluff and it is an EV- play

[givememyleg]

You really can never see the SB saying OMG BS and calling with 99-JJ here, or even with an 8? Stupid people make stupid calls, if we are ahead here as mcat says most of the time, then bet.

[givememyleg]

I'm willing to bet on 0% chance of a c/r bluff!

[tncatfish43]

don't make big bet,if your called on it you're more than likely beat.check,someone might have a weak king and too reluctant to bet but also won't fold.or you could run into someone who is slow playing the A or has filled up.looks like it's the first hand,and unless you've played with these people before you haven't had a chance to get a read on them.