Standard raise with TT gets shoved over ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 23/11 over about 100 hands. Stats pretty consistent across all blind levels. I will run the ICM on this later but in the meantime, call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1400)
BB (t1135)
UTG (t3330)
Hero (MP1) (t3250)
MP2 (t2260)
CO (t1535)
Button (t590)

Hero's M: 21.67

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 10, 10
1 fold, Hero raises to t250, 1 fold, CO raises to t1535 (All-In), 3 folds, Hero ????

[RockyMoose]

ICM will be interesting. In the heat of battle, I fold. The more chips I have and the more villain has, the less I want to be involved in a coin flip or race. My guess is 50% of the time he has overcards, 30% of the time he has an overpair, 10% of the time he has an underpair, 10% total bluff?

This is going to be a good thread.

edit: the more I think about, the chances of villain have something like 77 seems higher than just 10%. I don't play the $27s, but I frequently see folks in the lower buy-in STT's shoving over preflop with medium pairs.

[baudib]

Calling 1285 to win 1935 seems like an easy call.

[gingerwizard]

Probably a call. I doubt the ICM tax is huge with your stack and AT,AJ,99,88 could be in opps range.

[trilerian]

I'll be honest, it would be hard for me to fold here. Here is a try at the ICM calculation. I am using ICM to figure a winning shoving range for opp as well. I don't know if I got the numbers right, but I won't learn it without posting mistakes right? The numbers I got;

CO 12.28% if fold
CO 0% if push and lose
CO 22.28% if push and win

So (12.28-0)/(22.28-0)=55.17
Playing with Pokerstove gave opp needing at least 99+ AKo, AKs to make opps shove a winning play against a range of 88+ AQ+.

Hero 21.43% if fold
Hero 13.48% if call and lose
Hero 30.55% if call and win

(21.43-13.48)/(30.55-13.48)=46.57

We need 46.57%+ equity against opps range to make this a winning call for us. And against 99+ AK+ we only have 40.17%. If opp is a winning player then this is a fold. We can call with JJ+ if we definitely think AK is in opps shoving range, otherwise it is QQ+. If we add AQ+ this is still a fold. Again though, my calculations may be off.

[gingerwizard]

Against a random, I'm pretty sure AQ is in there. 99,88,AJ,AT judgement calls. Certainly in a $6.50 but this is not one

[baudib]

taipan, I think in these situations, his likely read of you is probably as important as his stats. You're the No. 2 in chips, so I wonder if you've been raising a lot of hands or did you just win a big pot? He's at starting stack size and if he feels you're active he could be frustrated and go all aggro with 88 or AJ.

[Jack Sawyer]

subjectively, but I'm 80% sure i let this go rather quickly

[taipan168]

taipan, I think in these situations, his likely read of you is probably as important as his stats. You're the No. 2 in chips, so I wonder if you've been raising a lot of hands or did you just win a big pot? He's at starting stack size and if he feels you're active he could be frustrated and go all aggro with 88 or AJ.

From memory, I think I just doubled up with a big hand. Can't remember whether I had been particularly aggressive but I doubt I would have been at this blind level unless I had a rush of big hands.

[cakespork]

Call at a hard table, but if you think you can make money with better odds by outplaying/bluffing them, fold.