AQ, TT8 flop, Q on turn ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 36/4/2.0 up to this point. Losing player according to SS. What's your turn move, shove? I can't give him credit for J9 or Tx here, can I?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1450)
UTG+1 (t1350)
Hero (MP1) (t1745)
MP2 (t2775)
CO (t1340)
Button (t1255)
SB (t2070)
BB (t1515)

Hero's M: 11.63

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
2 folds, Hero raises to t250, MP2 calls t250, 4 folds

Flop: (t650) 10, 10, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t400, MP2 calls t400

Turn: (t1450) Q (2 players)
Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

What calls? FD? He may be floating you if he's that loose so CRAI?

[taipan168]

Do I really want to offer a free card on that board when I have less than a PSB left? He probably still calls with a draw.

[Da GOAT]

def shove, the Q also improves other parts of his range like QJ,Q9 etc. i wudnt worry about a single J9 holding among the very wide range he has.

[gingerwizard]

depends. Normally I shove but really loose players will often float flops and bet turns so if he's doing that seems CRAI seems like a decent play.

Either he has J9,AT,KT,QT,JT,T9 and caught huge, or he has something he won't fold like Qx, A8, a flush draw, or he noticed that TT8 is unlikely to have hit you and is floating (common "he probably has AK" syndrome).

Money goes in for the first scenario either way
Shoving better than CRAI for second scenario (although he'll still bet a fair few of those hands, and many losing players will still bet a flush draw on the turn)
Check raising is better than betting in last scenario.

If he's that loose and losing I'm guessing scenarios 3 and 1 are quite likely, and he bets enough of 2 for us to be ok with taking the chance of giving a free card.

Just a thought. Shoving seems fine though

[Da GOAT]

CRAI is bad since we have only 1100 into 1450. we do not have a proper stack to do that. opp wont fire often enough plus flop is drawy and we wanna protect and get further value.

[gingerwizard]

well c/c a psb then. I.e. make him put money in with worse hand.

Question is the part of his range consisting of floats and crap we beat and he bets with (cos he is bad and losing) larger than the part that calls a shove.

[Da GOAT]

no betting is way better than calling. loads of hands we beat stay in. loads of hand we beat with equity check back. there arent enough crap in his range that hasnt the equity that will just call a shove.

[Jack Sawyer]

the moment you cbet that flop made you have to bet all-in on that turn, regardless.

[givememyleg]

you're not folding, and don't give donk boy a free card.

[cakespork]

cbet flop, accept it if he knows exactly what you have and just bluffs you out