Bubble hand with 77

[RockyMoose]

I've noticed my gut instincts on hands tend to be way tighter than the analysis I see on this site. This is similar to the TT hand in a nearby thread. Is this an easy decision? It wasn't for me.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 10+1 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1644)
BB (t3036)
Hero (UTG) (t3418)
Button (t5402)

Hero's M: 18.99

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7
Hero raises to t360, 1 fold, SB raises to t1644 (All-In), 1 fold

Hero??

[thejowster]

there is no question this is a fold. the fact that SB reraises all-in at 60/120 blinds sets the alarm bells ringing to begin with. may well have TT+.

aside from this you are sitting comfortably as the 2nd chip leader you do not want to jeopordize that with this hand so close to the bubble.

combined with this SNGwiz recommends a fold here under most feasible ranges. Fold For the Win.

[taipan168]

Not sure how you analysed this hand in SNG Wiz since Wiz can't analyse hands where Hero raises and gets shoved over, but I agree with OP's conclusion that this is a fold. I haven't run the numbers, but taking the ICM effect into account I don't think 77 fares well enough against opp's range to justify a call.

[gingerwizard]

Wiz won't work on this hand.

I think ICM does make this a fold given how far behind your opponents range you are. I don't like the pf raise here.

[TLR]

I also think this is a fold, I think I would call with 99+ AK/AQ

[taipan168]

I think the preflop raise is OK, I would play it the same. That said, if the table is full of passive limptards, we could also limp and play for set value.

[gingerwizard]

What I don't like about it is to do with bet sizing as well. I'm more comfortable raising 300, 360 is >10% of stack. Also 300 makes this decision much easier.

[taipan168]

What I don't like about it is to do with bet sizing as well. I'm more comfortable raising 300, 360 is >10% of stack. Also 300 makes this decision much easier.

Yeah, I don't disagree with your point about bet sizing, 300 would have been better.

[thejowster]

yeah put the hand in without the initial raise from hero to get a rough idea off teh Diff.

I can understand why limping here might have been feasible PF but i don't understand ginger wizards point about 300 making the decision easier (apart from it being <10% of stack)....

[gingerwizard]

Raising 2.5x with blinds this high does the same job of 3x in terms of folding hands and stealing blinds, but when called we have large pots (which generally we don't want late in a SNG) and when shoved over we have better odds for calling (which with marginal hands like this makes our decisions tougher)

[RockyMoose]

Thanks, this forum rocks. I'm always happy to see that FTR threads are so darn polite -- so many of the other message boards I see are full of flame wars.

[thejowster]

Raising 2.5x with blinds this high

surely the level of blinds shouldnt make a difference if your making statements like 2.5x BB, since the thinking player will note "ah he has raised 2.5x BB" or "ah he has raised 3x BB" and adjust their actions accordingly...

does the same job of 3x in terms of folding hands and stealing blinds

surely not since 2.5x makes some hands in the villain range viable (over +0.5%EV Diff)

[TLR]

Raising 2.5x with blinds this high

surely the level of blinds shouldnt make a difference if your making statements like 2.5x BB, since the thinking player will note "ah he has raised 2.5x BB" or "ah he has raised 3x BB" and adjust their actions accordingly...

Blind level does have an affect on how many times BB raise are effective, as the decision to call/reraise/fold is affected not only by the size of the pot but also by the % the initial raise repesents of your stack

[gingerwizard]

^ this.

Calling even a minraise for half your stack in BB with junk is bad even though you have pot odds.

[cakespork]

fold, not good enough to gamble