Raise UTG with JJ and get 3x 3-bet by 17/13 player ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 17/13 over 162 hands. What's your move here? Fold, call and get it in on an undercard flop, call and shove any flop or shove over now?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t1700)
CO (t1370)
Button (t1380)
SB (t1710)
BB (t1470)
Hero (UTG) (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1470)
MP1 (t1410)
MP2 (t1490)

Hero's M: 20.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J
Hero raises to t150, 5 folds, Button raises to t450, 2 folds, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Tai are the stats filtered? I think they're pretty worthless if not and I don't know what to make of them.

I think call against unknown and CRAI undercard flop. This still worries me unless he 3 bets AQ+,TT+, and regs at $27s are flatting AK,AQs here. Folding is the only other play I'm comfortable with, but that depends on 3-bet range.

Shoving over or stop and go don't seem good. Obv my plan leaves us smoked by QQ+ as would this plan, but calling and CRAI on unders flop gets more value out of AK, AQ (unless he definitely calls AK,AQ to a 4bet all in preflop.)

[thejowster]

for me its a shove or a fold but since hes a bit of a tagg i would err towards folding probably has pocket queens+ or maybe AK.(KQs) in which case you would be right to push..............

id fold unless you have a gut read on him and know his playing style. its early in the sng as well its likely hes playing even tighter...

[gingerwizard]

If he can have KQs, he can have A9o, 44 and obv this is a shove.

[taipan168]

Tai are the stats filtered? I think they're pretty worthless if not and I don't know what to make of them.

TBH I'm not sure how to filter stats in game. Anyway, I opened up PT and ran his stats for the first 3 levels and they were 16/14 over 100 hands.

[gingerwizard]

AK maybe even AQ in there then.

[gingerwizard]

This happened during a session I started after viewing your thread

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1445)
SB (t1490)
BB (t1470)
Hero (UTG) (t3010)
UTG+1 (t1880)
MP1 (t1550)
MP2 (t1335)
CO (t1320)

Hero's M: 66.89

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J
Hero raises to t120, UTG+1 calls t120, 3 folds, Button raises to t450, 2 folds, Hero calls t330, 1 fold

Flop: (t1065) 6, 2, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t995 (All-In), Hero calls t995

Turn: (t3055) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3055) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t3055

tbh this is a spot I really really struggle with. Just can't sort myself out in these spots

[taipan168]

The more I think about my hand, the more I am convinced that it is a fold to the 3-bet. Stats say that opp is not an idiot, and he just 3-bet less than AI to an UTG raise. We can also make the assumption that opp has a HUD running on me so he should know I am a tight player.

The question then becomes - given all the above, what range is he 3-betting? I don't think there is anything in his range that I am dominating. Even if AK is in his range (which it may not be because many players will flat in position) then on an ICM basis it's bad for me to take a flip here (assuming he won't 3-bet/fold).

[givememyleg]

Given that BTN is a good player, I'm folding PF here but calling a shove. He doesn't play 99-TT this way and would probably shove them.

I put his range at pretty much JJ+,AKs,AKo, and JJ is pretty unlikely, he would most likely shove that as well. However QQ+ is nearly the same exact equity anyway, 36 - 64.

I'm not sure if this seems too loose, but I would give his shoving range around 99+,AQs+,AQo+. He may even fold/call 99 without set odds, so idk. Our equity would be against this range 50 - 50.

[givememyleg]

Hell, I don't think he even plays AK this way. Almost all of the regs/decent players at the 27-38 level are deathly afraid of postflop, they would almost definitely shove AK here. I've even seen some of the regs open shove 40-50 bbs with AQ.

Yeah, this has to be a fold.

[givememyleg]

ginger, I think that hand is fine and I would play the same vs an unknown. The only real spot I would wonder about is pf, it might be a fold.

[gingerwizard]

I don't see how, based on the stats Tai has given (which probably amount to 30-40 hands in early levels, we've assertained that villain is a good, solid player.

I agree your analysis is good under that assumption though gmml

[Gore Blimey]

Dude, you're crushed a lot of the time, because he's either an idiot or he has a monster and wants you to shove it over. Like you say, he doesn't look like an idiot, so I'd be very cautious in this spot.

[gingerwizard]

Having thought about it, cross posted, and played about 50 SNGs this weekend with this new strategy I think fold TT-JJ to a 3-bet (unless read that opp is monkey 3-bettor) pf early is best.

[cakespork]

just fold, no flop will help