AQs open raised on the button gets shoved over ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were something like 10/6 over 71 hands. Call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t2000)
SB (t555)
BB (t1870)
UTG (t1555)
UTG+1 (t1410)
MP1 (t1465)
MP2 (t1055)
MP3 (t2335)
CO (t1255)

Hero's M: 13.33

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
6 folds, Hero raises to t250, 1 fold, BB raises to t1870 (All-In), Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Insta-fold.

Reckon his range is way ahead of yours and the ICM tax should be pretty silly.

Edit: The ICM tax won't take into account just how bad being as short as you will be if you call and lose is. You can certainly knock off a few more % off your ICM-given equity for a 150ish chipstack

[taipan168]

So you never ever think that he has enough steal hands in his range to justify making the call?

[Da GOAT]

i doubt he resteals so deep

[gingerwizard]

How much equity do you think you need to call this?

ICM will over value your stack if you call and lose so you should add that in to calcs.

[TLR]

I would probably call, seems like a resteal

[mcatdog]

How much equity do you think you need to call this?

ICM will over value your stack if you call and lose so you should add that in to calcs.

My calculator says $2.49 if you call and lose, $56.51 if you call and win, $29.05 if you fold. I don't know how big of a difference the real value should be instead of $2.49, but it can't be that bad since we're on the button and we'd have plenty of time to pick a spot to get our last few chips in, and ICM probably under-values the big stack too. That being said just going by the numbers above you need 49.2% equity, which you do have even against the following fairly tight range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.548% 45.86% 03.69% 405191888 32586254.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.452% 46.76% 03.69% 413184468 32586254.00 { AQs }

[gingerwizard]

Probably less than half that but it won't make too much difference. We'll have 6 hands to pick a spot and very very often will find ourselves multiway all in because we're so short. Added that we'll have to survive at least 2 showdowns before we have any FE to shove.

ICM doesn't over value bigstack with this many left IMO.

I doubt, but havn't checked that it would be correct (ICM) to shove such a wide range as the one you suggested in BBs position at this blind level as there is too much risk for the reward. At this level my shove over range is about {66+,AT+} and therefore maybe I've found a leak.

Lastly is this edge not a bit small here because in terms of % of prize pool we're doing a lot worse now 9-handed than we will be 4-6 handed, AND Tai has a good push fold game which is worth more equity on the folding side now.

Still interesting spot, and I hadn't really given much consideration to the mathematics of restealing early in SNGs, how often it's done, with what hands, and what to call with. Plenty to think about, thanks!

[mcatdog]

I doubt, but havn't checked that it would be correct (ICM) to shove such a wide range as the one you suggested in BBs position at this blind level as there is too much risk for the reward. At this level my shove over range is about {66+,AT+} and therefore maybe I've found a leak.

SNG Wiz can answer this question. It depends on how wide the button is stealing. Just as an example, if the button is opening 17.8% and calling a shove with 99+, AQ+, AJs then it recommends shoving 22+, AQ+, AJs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs. This range isn't much wider than yours but it has hands with more equity when called. ATo would be an absolutely terrible reshove in this spot, you should definitely stop doing that and reshove baby pairs and suited broadways instead.

[gingerwizard]

Yes don't have wiz at work but will play with this at home.

Good leak will be plugged.

[Jack Sawyer]

vs tag I probably fold. specially if he's never seen me steal before.

vs lag FIST PUMP YO

[RockyMoose]

I'm a nit, but if I peg someone as a lag or a chip leader / late-position thief who will fold to a reraise, and the blinds get up to 50/100, and he tries to steal my blinds, I have been known to shove over with ATC. Yes, at a full table, yes, with similar stack sizes. This is very rare for me -- the situation has to be perfect. I'm such a nit, it tends to make them insta-fold and respect my blinds next time around. (This is at the $10/$1 level). So with AQ you'd have a good chance of stacking me.

[dsmrolla06]

I think this early in the sng and given stack sizes and read im folding this most of the time. Theres definately a good possibility he is restealing here, but im looking for a better spot to shove it in. I think calling range for me here is AK, TT+, maybe 99. But idk, i could just be rusty.