Inexplicable bubble call from a winning player ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is a seriously winning multitabler, 15% ROI, +$46k over 17k games.

I ran the ICM on this and it is as follows:
- If opp folds he will have 3450 chips worth 26.6% of the prize pool
- If opp calls and wins he will have 8000 chips worth 40.2% of the prize pool
- If opp calls and loses he will be out.

Therefore, he needs to be 66.2% to win against whatever I am shoving for it to be a good call.

equity win tie
Hand 0: 62.781% 61.51% 01.27% { A9s }
Hand 1: 37.219% 35.95% 01.27% { random }



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t2290)
Button (t2160)
SB (t3975)
Hero (BB) (t5075)

Hero's M: 12.69

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
2 folds, SB raises to t500, Hero raises to t5050 (All-In), SB calls t3450 (All-In)

Results:
SB had 9, A.
Hero had 10, 10.

[gingerwizard]

Who is it?

Because this is the sort of spot you can't analyse in wiz or SNGPT he may have a leak here.

His ICM can't be that perfect anyway as he has not moved up yet.

Interesting spot though. Is your shove back range any 2 then?

[WillburForce]

mis-click?

[rong]

Is there anything anywhere that gives a general criticism of ICM?

If there is I'd like to read it and I'd imagine you guys would know where it is.

[taipan168]

Is there anything anywhere that gives a general criticism of ICM?

This is a pretty good explanation - http://www.chillin411.com/node/7

[rong]

cheers

[trilerian]

SB probably thinks you are shoving pretty wide to his steal attempt, his m is about 9.9, he knows you know that, he thinks he has an edge, he wants to shove his stack down your gullet but thinks you will fold, so he raises only enough that he thinks you should shove atc. Add to that, it looks like he doesn't want 2nd or 3rd, he wants 1st, and probably thought that it would be his best chance to get some chips from you and make him rather healthy so to speak. Not saying it was a good call, as imho it was a horrible call. But I do think it was his plan, so to speak. I do hope you really took it to him though.