10NL-QQ and got 3bet

[Sasquach991]

Villian was 20/17/7 over about 100 hands. He was also on another table I was in. This was a fairly tight table where noone had a vpip >25 and very few hands were going to showdown. Villian had only shown cards 3 previous times and had 3bet with AQo and QQ so after the 3bet I put him on AJs+, AJo+, QQ+. I didn't think he had a small pp because of the 3bet.

I normally fold to a 3bet without KK, AA but I think I remember something I read here about 3betting a wider range. It was in one of the re threads I think. This seemed to be as good a time as any.
I was 18/14/2 over about 100 hands.

My flop call seemed weak but it also didn't tell him much as I had 3bet with AA and KK earlier.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($19.65)
Hero (MP) ($24.70)
Button ($2.20)
SB ($38.80)
BB ($6.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $1.60, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.20

Flop: ($3.30) J, 2, 7 (2 players)
SB bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70

Turn: ($8.70) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero ???

[Palantine]

You put him on his range, after the flop and fourth street I think we can weight it toward the top of his range, so I would fold. You could be very easily drawing to one out ( ).

[Otter_Brothface]

I would just call turn because you can trap him on the river he probably is bluffing with a queen or king type hand or maybe A 10.

[Parasurama]

You put him on his range, after the flop and fourth street I think we can weight it toward the top of his range, so I would fold. You could be very easily drawing to one out ( ).

sorry why wouldn't the be an out if the were?

[Illfavor]

I normally fold to a 3bet without KK, AA but I think I remember something I read here about 3betting a wider range.

What? You aren't 3betting here. You do realize, yes?

Fold the turn IMO.

[amifat]

Fold time, villain has the very top of his range,

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.421% 68.42% 00.00% 572 0.00 { KK+, AhKh, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh }
Hand 1: 31.579% 31.58% 00.00% 264 0.00 { QdQh }

His range may even be wider Pre-flop but I'm pretty sure as played your well behind here, fold.

[LawDude]

So his range is AJ+ QQ+. On the flop, he either hit it big, feels it didn't hurt him, or is betting to protect a made hand. That means he has to have AJ, QQ, KK, or AA, AhQh, or AhKh. There are 6 possible combinations each of KK and AA, and 12 possible combinations of AJ (remember, a jack is on the board), one of which is heart-heart and completes a flush. So, there are 15 hands he can have that will beat you right now and 11 that you beat. (For what it is worth, on 6 of those 15 hands you would have an 18 percent chance of sucking out with a flush.) There is another 1 combination (QQ) that you chop-chop on unless a heart comes (about 18 percent chance). 3 of those AJ's will beat you 18 percent of the time on the river with a flush and all six will beat you 2 to 4 percent of the time with a non-heart ace. (I am leaving out the probability of a Queen or Jack hitting on turn or river because they balance each other out.) And since you are heads up against him, you are getting basically even money on anything you put into the pot.

Sounds to me like you are talking, at best, about a less-than-breakeven proposition unless you think you have some fold equity based on some earlier observation of the player as willing to fold a made hand to aggression.

[Sasquach991]

I normally fold to a 3bet without KK, AA but I think I remember something I read here about 3betting a wider range.

What? You aren't 3betting here. You do realize, yes?

Fold the turn IMO.

Sorry, I meant calling a 3bet.

[Palantine]

sorry why wouldn't the be an out if the were?

If villain had AA or KK with the A or K of hearts.

[Illfavor]

sorry why wouldn't the be an out if the were?

If villain had AA or KK with the A or K of hearts.

I can has two queen of hearts?

[Palantine]

whoops, I reads bad

[Sasquach991]

One other read. Villian would push when he thought he had the nuts yet he didn't here. Also, what does villian put me on here?

[WillburForce]

i have trouble folding here. At 10nl, regardless of stats, I probably look this up.

[kettleofish]

Why on earth would you stay on a table like this as 10NL? Find another one man! As for the hand, given his turn bet sizing and how deep we are I'd fold here. I'm not a fan of stacking off with 1 pair 250bbs deep (I are nit).

[Outlaw]

Easy shove on turn. You are like 57% equity vs the range you gave.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

51,480 games 0.001 secs 51,480,000 games/sec

Board: Js 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.835% 56.92% 00.92% 29301 472.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 42.165% 41.25% 00.92% 21234 472.50 { JJ+, AJs+, AJo+ }

Even if his range is AK+.. its still a shove. Does he call a shove with AA/KK/AKo? And you have outs if he has JJ. Fold equity FTW. If he ha something silly like AK of hearts.. move on and know you made the right play.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28,710 games 0.001 secs 28,710,000 games/sec

Board: Js 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.592% 44.95% 01.65% 12904 472.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 53.408% 51.76% 01.65% 14861 472.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Who cares if you are very deep.. this is a chance to get 2.5 buy-ins in the middle with well over 50% equity.. these are spots we crave.

[kettleofish]

Ummmmmmm, care to look at your pokerstove calculations again??? Maybe put in the turn card...

Edit: That response has tillllted me. Go ahead and shove over his turn bet ppl, because his range for calling off another 150bbs on the turn includes unpaired high card hands without flush redraws and if has the flush already oh wells.

[Outlaw]

Ummmmmmm, care to look at your pokerstove calculations again??? Maybe put in the turn card...

Edit: That response has tillllted me. Go ahead and shove over his turn bet ppl, because his range for calling off another 150bbs on the turn includes unpaired high card hands without flush redraws and if has the flush already oh wells.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,288 games 0.001 secs 2,288,000 games/sec

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.434% 61.67% 00.76% 1411 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 37.566% 36.80% 00.76% 842 17.50 { JJ+, AJs+, AJo+ }


Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.895% 58.92% 00.97% 1063 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 40.105% 39.14% 00.97% 706 17.50 { QQ+, AKs, AJs, AKo, AJo }

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.649% 50.65% 00.00% 624 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 49.351% 49.35% 00.00% 608 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.517% 38.18% 01.34% 8970 315.00 { JJ+, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 60.483% 59.14% 01.34% 13896 315.00 { JJ+ }

So even if you take AK, AQ out of his two-barrel range.. you still have enough fold equity to shove the turn. If you have a read that he only has AA/KK/JJ here.. sure, go ahead and fold.. but since he had Aj in his 3bet range with a read.. I am stacking here 100%.

[LawDude]

Outlaw, I still think you are getting the range wrong.

The poster said the original pre-flop range (based on the re-raise) was AJ+ QQ+. That's it. We don't retroactively increase that range (unless the post-flop play seriously indicates that he must have raised with a weaker hand).

So now, he puts a big bet on the flop (which might be a continuation bet with nothing) AND another big bet on the turn (which ISN'T a continuation bet with nothing). At this point, we KNOW that he has a made hand. Thus, we take the original range and narrow it down to the made hands. That means QQ, KK, AA, AJ, AhQh, AhKh. That's it. That's his entire range as of the turn. He doesn't have AKo or AQo unless he is trying to pull off a maniac bluff.

Run your pokerstove against THAT range. I do my math manually (check my 2/10 7:47 p.m. post above) but it sure looks to me like Hero is well behind in a heads-up pot where he is basically getting even money on his calls.

Now, if you actually have fold equity here, that might change things. And that's something that depends on the Hero's reads and the Villain's previous actions in response to aggressive plays on wet boards. But the range of this play is pretty damned narrow, because you have a guy putting serious money into the pot pre-flop (a 3-bet of 16xBB), on the flop (for about 3/4 of the pot), and on the turn (for about 3/4 of the much larger pot). Non-maniac players generally don't do that unless they really believe they have a strong hand.

[kettleofish]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

880 games 0.005 secs 176,000 games/sec

Board: Js 2h 4h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.557% 20.57% 01.99% 181 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 77.443% 75.45% 01.99% 664 17.50 { JJ+, AhKh, AhJh, AhJc, AhJd }

---

[Outlaw]

Outlaw, I still think you are getting the range wrong.

The poster said the original pre-flop range (based on the re-raise) was AJ+ QQ+. That's it. We don't retroactively increase that range (unless the post-flop play seriously indicates that he must have raised with a weaker hand).

So now, he puts a big bet on the flop (which might be a continuation bet with nothing) AND another big bet on the turn (which ISN'T a continuation bet with nothing). At this point, we KNOW that he has a made hand. Thus, we take the original range and narrow it down to the made hands. That means QQ, KK, AA, AJ, AhQh, AhKh. That's it. That's his entire range as of the turn. He doesn't have AKo or AQo unless he is trying to pull off a maniac bluff.

Run your pokerstove against THAT range. I do my math manually (check my 2/10 7:47 p.m. post above) but it sure looks to me like Hero is well behind in a heads-up pot where he is basically getting even money on his calls.

Now, if you actually have fold equity here, that might change things. And that's something that depends on the Hero's reads and the Villain's previous actions in response to aggressive plays on wet boards. But the range of this play is pretty damned narrow, because you have a guy putting serious money into the pot pre-flop (a 3-bet of 16xBB), on the flop (for about 3/4 of the pot), and on the turn (for about 3/4 of the much larger pot). Non-maniac players generally don't do that unless they really believe they have a strong hand.

You are assuming people only two-barrel with made hands.

Regardless, I updated it with only "made" hands or strong draws.

Board: Js 7h 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.574% 51.40% 01.17% 769 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.426% 46.26% 01.17% 692 17.50 { QQ+, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AJo }


Why do you all keep leaving AJ out of his range? Isn't that top pair top kicker? Why are you leaving QQ out?

I think shoving the turn has a ton of fold equity. With most of his range it would be incorrect to call an overbet shove here I think. AA should fold, KK should fold. AQ folds. QQ folds. AJ folds. AK/AJhearts calls, JJ may call. what else calls?

Any of you pros want to help out with this one? Am I way off here?

[LawDude]

Outlaw, I still think you are getting the range wrong.

The poster said the original pre-flop range (based on the re-raise) was AJ+ QQ+. That's it. We don't retroactively increase that range (unless the post-flop play seriously indicates that he must have raised with a weaker hand).

So now, he puts a big bet on the flop (which might be a continuation bet with nothing) AND another big bet on the turn (which ISN'T a continuation bet with nothing). At this point, we KNOW that he has a made hand. Thus, we take the original range and narrow it down to the made hands. That means QQ, KK, AA, AJ, AhQh, AhKh. That's it. That's his entire range as of the turn. He doesn't have AKo or AQo unless he is trying to pull off a maniac bluff.

Run your pokerstove against THAT range. I do my math manually (check my 2/10 7:47 p.m. post above) but it sure looks to me like Hero is well behind in a heads-up pot where he is basically getting even money on his calls.

Now, if you actually have fold equity here, that might change things. And that's something that depends on the Hero's reads and the Villain's previous actions in response to aggressive plays on wet boards. But the range of this play is pretty damned narrow, because you have a guy putting serious money into the pot pre-flop (a 3-bet of 16xBB), on the flop (for about 3/4 of the pot), and on the turn (for about 3/4 of the much larger pot). Non-maniac players generally don't do that unless they really believe they have a strong hand.

You are assuming people only two-barrel with made hands.

Regardless, I updated it with only "made" hands or strong draws.

Board: Js 7h 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.574% 51.40% 01.17% 769 17.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.426% 46.26% 01.17% 692 17.50 { QQ+, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AJo }


Why do you all keep leaving AJ out of his range? Isn't that top pair top kicker? Why are you leaving QQ out?

I think shoving the turn has a ton of fold equity. With most of his range it would be incorrect to call an overbet shove here I think. AA should fold, KK should fold. AQ folds. QQ folds. AJ folds. AK/AJhearts calls, JJ may call. what else calls?

Any of you pros want to help out with this one? Am I way off here?

1. Most decent players only two-barrel after a pre-flop raise with some sort of made hand. Again, if there's a read that this guy will two-barrel his c-bets with a missed flop or just a draw, that's a different story and you can adjust his range accordingly.

2. I include AJ in his range. I still think Hero is well behind.

3. Villain does not have AK or AQ (unless it's hearts). That is wishful thinking, which often occurs when a player has put a fair amount into the pot and doesn't want to lay down pocket queens.

[Outlaw]

If we are going to lay down QQ on that board with a ton of equity vs the villain's range, we shouldn't of called the 3bet pf.. we should of 4bet or folded.

[LawDude]

If we are going to lay down QQ on that board with a ton of equity vs the villain's range, we shouldn't of called the 3bet pf.. we should of 4bet or folded.

Outlaw, at the time that the pre-flop bet occurred, Hero didn't know that Villain was going to two-barrel the flop and the turn. The decision to play the hand pre-flop is based on the information that Hero had at that time. Now Villain has given us more information about his hand. The question is, are we going to use that information to narrow down his range and lay down a likely beaten hand, or are we going to keep calling because we called when we had less information?

[Outlaw]

If we are going to lay down QQ on that board with a ton of equity vs the villain's range, we shouldn't of called the 3bet pf.. we should of 4bet or folded.

Outlaw, at the time that the pre-flop bet occurred, Hero didn't know that Villain was going to two-barrel the flop and the turn. The decision to play the hand pre-flop is based on the information that Hero had at that time. Now Villain has given us more information about his hand. The question is, are we going to use that information to narrow down his range and lay down a likely beaten hand, or are we going to keep calling because we called when we had less information?

With the information we have, we are ahead here a lot... and we can fold hands we are behind a good % of the time. I think we may have like 25%+ FE if not more.


What might be going through villains mind with different hands?

AhKh/AhJh- I hit nuts on turn.. I will check a lot to show weakness.. (at these stakes especially)

JJ.. ah hell another friggin heart.. I better bet though in case it scares him too.. but if he shoves I gotta fold..

AA- ARG a heart! But I have the A of hearts.. so I gotta bet.. oh hell he shoved.. he must be there already, I have to fold.

KK- Same thing.

Aj with no heart- Top pair, he hasn't shown strength.. another street of value... but if he shoves, my marginal hand must fold.

Aj with a heart.. same as AA/KK with a heart.

AA/KK no heart- Crap he must have hit the flush or has a set.. fold time.

Am I wrong to think we have tons of fold equity here? What hand does he have with a bet on the turn that won't fold a lot?

Of course this is 10NL.. he would likely stack with a lot of the above hands.. but also would with AJ so it evens out.

(FYI- I am playing the devil's advocate here mostly to start a discussion to improve my play- Lately I have been exploring Fold Equity to ramp up my aggression. A week ago I didn't really even know how FE worked lol I would like to see the higher stakes regs comment on this stuff)

[LawDude]

Outlaw, I suspect you have a point about fold equity (which is why I included that caveat in my responses). But maybe this is my bias from playing too many live games where nobody ever seems to fold, but if I put Villain on a range that includes a lot of big made hands, I want to have some reads on the player that he actually will lay down a big hand before I try to induce that fold. Otherwise it could end up being very costly.

needs moar 3b stats on hud

anyway, the stack sizes say that we're getting it in by the river if we call this bet
so we're not calling $6 bet, we're calling a $20.40 bet into a $8.7 pot

pokerstove says:

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.760% 54.39% 01.37% 694 17.50 { JJ+, AhKh, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 44.240% 42.87% 01.37% 547 17.50 { QhQs }

our pot odds are bad, but we need 41.4% to call and we have 44% equity
so go ahead and shovel on the turn
we don't have any fold equity (if he folds AJ here then don't shove the turn, in fact, we don't really want fold equity) but we have enough real equity to stick it in

[Sasquach991]

I fully expected villian to push on the turn as he had previously several times. When he didn't, I figured I was ahead.

[kettleofish]

^^ He'd shoved several times on the turn in a 3 bet pot with that much money behind? Any of em see a showdown? This would be incredibly useful information.

[LawDude]

needs moar 3b stats on hud

anyway, the stack sizes say that we're getting it in by the river if we call this bet
so we're not calling $6 bet, we're calling a $20.40 bet into a $8.7 pot

pokerstove says:

Board: Js 2h 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.760% 54.39% 01.37% 694 17.50 { JJ+, AhKh, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 44.240% 42.87% 01.37% 547 17.50 { QhQs }

our pot odds are bad, but we need 41.4% to call and we have 44% equity
so go ahead and shovel on the turn
we don't have any fold equity (if he folds AJ here then don't shove the turn, in fact, we don't really want fold equity) but we have enough real equity to stick it in

I still don't think we are quite there. AhQh is also in his range.

[kettleofish]

Hero has Qh.

I still maintain that the range I posted above is a pretty realistic stackoff range for villain without reads that he is mentally deficient. I mean even to include AJo in his 3bet range this deep OOP is a stretch.

[LawDude]

Hero has Qh.

I still maintain that the range I posted above is a pretty realistic stackoff range for villain without reads that he is mentally deficient. I mean even to include AJo in his 3bet range this deep OOP is a stretch.

Oops, my bad.

[Sasquach991]

Villian was big stack because he was shoving. The 3bet hands mentioned in the first post (AQo and QQ) were both turn shoves that went to showdown. He won both with a pair of Qs. Like I said before, when he didn't shove the turn, I thought I was ahead and I figured he put me on AA or KK.

I really thought about this hand regarding ranges and tendancies during the hand. I sat out in the other two table to concentrate on this one. This hand turned out well for me but only because of FTR regs pounding in my head about villians range and tendancies and how to narrow down ranges on each street. Before I would have folded to the 3bet but I had notes about the previous 3bets and results. Not only did I think about what I was holding and what villian was holding but also about what I thought villian thought I was holding. I actually said out loud what I thought villian was holding and I was right. When his cards flipped I couldn't believe it. That was a first for me.

Thanks. I'm going to drink a beer for each one of you this weekend.

[Outlaw]

Curiously, as played how did this hand turn out? Did you fold turn or did it go on to showdown? If so what were the results? If I missed it in a previous post, my apologies.

[Sasquach991]

showdown and villian had the bottom of the range I had put him on...in white
AJo

[Outlaw]

showdown and villian had the bottom of the range I had put him on...in white
AJo

Cha ching