fold dem pokats?

[will641]

i have small sample size on him, but at this point i he seems very tight. i had been with i believe 3 pots with him, never got passed a flop. he bet, i folded once, the other 2 times he c/f.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($224.60)
CO ($668.25)
Button ($318)
SB ($56)
BB ($40)
UTG ($249.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
UTG raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 4 folds

Flop: ($17) 9, 9, 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($39) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $24, UTG raises to $75

[ZwiFT]

Given your narrow strong range, i fold

[IowaSkinsFan]

call turn call river if its not spade, if it is a spade then its close. his line is fishy to me.

[griffey24]

Given your narrow strong range, i fold

We have a narrow range?

If you ask me, we have a super super wide range here of all pairs, flush draws, floats with overs. Our range for betting here is pretty wide.

His range for c/r here for value, when he should potentially be somewhat worried about 9x here, is VERY narrow to me. I'm at least calling here. Sometimes shoving, and probably mostly flatting.

Calling on non spade rivers and re-evaluating on spade rivers.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

it sucks because at least if he went betbetbet you are beating some of his value range. With this line thats much less likely. If you fold here just don't let him know about it.

[mcatdog]

I would fold the turn sometime between never and the day I die. Mostly because of this:

If you ask me, we have a super super wide range here of all pairs, flush draws, floats with overs. Our range for betting here is pretty wide.

[mcatdog]

it sucks because at least if he went betbetbet you are beating some of his value range. With this line thats much less likely. If you fold here just don't let him know about it.

Even though we're only beating a bluff I'd still rather have QQ than like 66 just because we have so much more equity against his bluffs with QQ.

[thizzSantaCruz]

yea i definitely dont muck this

[Da GOAT]

def just call in this spot. anyone agree that if an A or K comes on river is an easy call??? only scare cards are spades?

[Alexos]

While our range certainly is wide, his is not really. I think this is so much easier with AA, I just did a quick stove and this is insane. I didn't include any bluffs, but it's just meant as a comparison. My intuition was to fold even before stoving this, as I don't think he has that many bluffs.

1) QQ vs his range

Board: 9c 9s 2s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.306% 11.49% 01.82% 834 132.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 86.694% 84.88% 01.82% 6162 132.00 { QQ+, 55, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, A9s, T9s, 98s }

2) AA vs his range

Board: 9c 9s 2s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.501% 52.54% 01.96% 3537 132.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 45.499% 43.54% 01.96% 2931 132.00 { QQ+, 55, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, A9s, T9s, 98s }

[griffey24]

I really don't see a boat playing like this at all. This line is such a 'strong-arm' line, to get him to fold. If you think boats can be in his range here, then I'd say he can equally have TT/JJ type hands as much as boats.

Also if he's tight enough that we don't give him credit for having any kind pure bluffs here, pure overs, then I'm not sure how often he's gonna show up with 9x from UTG really. Nor do I think 9x will check too often and risk giving a free card to the FD.

I don't mind your range.. I just think he needs to have a little wider range. At least a few combos of TT/JJ or something.

edit: maybe this is a better range....

Board: 9c 9s 2s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.941% 35.35% 01.59% 2940 132.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 63.059% 61.47% 01.59% 5112 132.00 { QQ+, JcJs, JdJh, JdJs, TcTs, TdTh, TdTs, 55, 22, AcKc, AhKh, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, Tc9c, Th9h }

[Alexos]

mod, what do u think?

[Mr Bigcity]

I would not lay it down.. I highly doubt he has AA KK or 9? .. More than likely trying to push you off the hand with a draw or 2 high cards. He might even have 55, but still I think folding is not a very good decision.

[nutsinho]

id call at least the turn but wouldnt be very happy about it

[Fnord]

If you think he's a nit fold. But this looks like a really funny line in what tends to be a pretty aggro game. I don't hate paying off his Aces or whatever as you'll see something really silly here a fair clip of the time and once in a blue moon you'll spike a Queen.

Then again, I float more often than you and if he knows (or cares), then I'm seeing stranger hands here as this is a fairly jump ball board.