Bubble 89o versus shorty

[knztbl]

Hi I didn't post much since I joined, but read a lot and just thought that this hand is somewhat interesting and I don't really get what I'm missing here.

I saw this one in a video on a big german poker community, so I don't have the HH, but I'm trying to somewhat give you the information you need in an acceptable format.

$2.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - (100/200) -
CO: mkhuory (9140 in chips)
BU: hero (2090 in chips)
SB: chanceless (300 in chips)
BB: Aarkan (1970 in chips)

chanceless: posts small blind 100
Aarkan: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [8s 9c]
mkhoury: folds
hero: ????

So now the question is obviously: should hero push here?

The argument for pushing is: since SB will call with atc (most likely) and BB will fold anything but AA,KK (perhaps AK, JJ+?) you have an equity of 48,102% against the random hand of the SB and 200 of deadmoney so you are getting 3:5 on a flip.

The argument against pushing: SNGWiz says fold no matter what I do with the ranges (except for the SB folding 60% of his hands which he most likely will not in this spot). I have always an EqDiff of ~= -0,5-0,6.

I like folding but I don't get the gap between Chip Equity and $-Equity in this spot because you stay alive and healthy unless the BB calls and hero is screwed. The BB will call the SB with ATC and may double him up anyway.

Perhaps I'm just overthinking here and it's just plain ICM. Opinions?

[drmcboy]

The argument for pushing is: since SB will call with atc (most likely)

explain further because I would assume if you shove he'll fold everything except huge hands.

[taipan168]

I would shove this assuming SB calls 100% (which they won't always). Something is wrong with SNG Wiz where it always shows the same EV regardless of BB's range when SB calls 100%, which is clearly not correct. Must be a bug in SNG Wiz, which sometimes happens when somebody has a very short stack. Remember that even if BB calls assuming SB calls 100%, because your stack is bigger than BB's you won't finish 4th unless SB beats both of your hands.

[knztbl]

drmcboy:
SB has 300 left and has to post 100. If hero pushes SB is getting 1 to 3 odds and SB has 200 left if he folds. Maybe SB does fold and hopes for the miracle BB is lose and calls or wakes up with aces but it would be a pretty dumb move, i guess.

taipan:
Ok, thank you. I didn't thought about that. Would you also push if BB and BU stacks were reversed, so hero would bust if BB calls and wins?

[taipan168]

taipan:
Ok, thank you. I didn't thought about that. Would you also push if BB and BU stacks were reversed, so hero would bust if BB calls and wins?

Assuming that SB is calling 100%, I would still shove unless I had a read that BB was a total idiot who would call very wide. Even if stacks were reversed, SB would still have to beat both of you for you to finish 4th (since if BB busts both of you, SB finishes 4th because of his shorter stack).

That said, drmcboy raises a very good point that the correct move for SB in this case would be to fold everything but monster hands. If this is the case, you should still shove provided that BB isn't an idiot.

[gingerwizard]

Erm, what about if you fold, SB shoves 100% BB calls nearly that? You have a great position on this table if SB doubles and you're ITM if not

[TLR]

I think I would fold it and wait for a better spot