Good squeeze spot?

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

Button (t176854)
SB (t108344)
Hero (BB) (t47912)
UTG (t87972)
UTG+1 (t87678)
MP1 (t184621)
MP2 (t204921)
CO (t99426)

Hero's M: 5.21

Preflop: Hero is BB with xx
4 folds
CO raises to t8000
Button calls t8000
1 fold
Hero................................

The original raiser had been relatively tight, nothing overly nitty and his min-raise from the cutoff seemed like real weakness.

The button had been active, raising lots of pots, flatting/limping some too so I felt like he was weak here a lot

My image (if it mattters) is solid, I had shoved a couple of time in the 1.5k/3k round and doubled with aces. I'd been unable to get anything else going since then.

The question is...is this a good squeeze spot, and i'm pretty sure it is based on reads, and how wide are you squeezing here? Also, is my stack to short to have much FE. It is the 1k gtd, $1 BI tourney btw

p.s. cant get the HH converter to work apologies

[drmcboy]

I would also be more comfortable if CO always min raised, tight player min raising seems scary since I would expect them to raise more rather than less with hands they do not want to take flops with (this is obv very player dependent so it's tough). I'd usually also rather give them closer to 1.5/1 odds vs ~2/1 but that may not matter much in $1 tourney.

I don't think it's a good ATC spot but if you have an A or even K to protect you some against medium PPs and make it a bit less likely that they have good Ax/Kx hands I don't hate it.

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

well, usually i don't give credit to semi-tight late position min-raises, i'd be more concerned about it coming from early position and still then i think it's weakn more often than strength.

So if you think Ax/Kx is good (and that includes K2o) how do you squeezes with broadways, suited connectors and small pairs...

[hopeful]

Not sure you have enough fold equity here to run a squeeze play. The button is on a large stack and if this is a $1 tourney he is going to call. You might shove for other reasons and the Ax,Kx idea is a good one. They may both be making position moves or they may have pp's and call. M=5 might be worth a shot depending on the payout structure and where you are in the money.

[ThatsSoMinusEV]

hmm ok, well we were around 60 players remaining and the money wasn't worth much until 6th

how much does that change your thinking process

[hopeful]

A long way from the money then cards and pots are the only factors and we are looking at ranges. The cutoff with his min raise, he must have been expecting to get called, so he wants to play a pot, does he want to play it for half his stack ? The button has a big stack if CO calls he probably will also.

Lets assume the button was just making a play and folds to your all in, it makes the math easier.

When CO decides pot will be near 70 000 he will need to put 38000 in to call odds about 1.8:1. His M is near 10 If he has a hand he might well re raise all in. Lets suppose he has a good hand and will push 75% of the time (i choose 75% because he raised to begin with). If he does play you will luck out at least 20% of the time any way.
EV= (.25*19000) + (.75*.20*105000) - (.75*.75*105000)
EV= -38,562.
The button calling can only make this worse not better. the crucial figure is the 75% what % do you think he will call?