Insta-call or fold?

[tuuk2]

We're 5-handed here and I'm 2nd in chips, but just barely. I do a standard raise here instead of pushing since I believe I can still afford to fold here if I'm pushed back on against the big stack who gets to act after me from the small blind. Since the BB who is also the short stack just calls, I'm not putting him on A-K or even A-10 or anything nearly that strong, but I know that K-Q or perhaps even a small pp is not out of the question. As soon as the flop hit, he was all-in. The instant all-in seemed fishy to me. So does anyone think this is anything other than a call? I'm getting over 2-1 odds... In general in the microstakes, what do you feel that the instant all-in in a situation like this means?

PokerStars Game #25139819946: Tournament #142187966, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2009/02/19 23:06:23 ET
Table '142187966 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: tuuk2 (2445 in chips)
Seat 3: rigac27 (6285 in chips)
Seat 4: Scotrob (1560 in chips)
Seat 5: ombrella28 (2432 in chips)
Seat 6: triplej74 (2278 in chips)
tuuk2: posts the ante 25
rigac27: posts the ante 25
Scotrob: posts the ante 25
ombrella28: posts the ante 25
triplej74: posts the ante 25
rigac27: posts small blind 100
Scotrob: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tuuk2 [Ah Qc]
ombrella28: folds
triplej74: folds
tuuk2: raises 400 to 600
rigac27: folds
Scotrob: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Th 3s Ts]
Scotrob: bets 935 and is all-in
tuuk2: ???

[flomo]

villian has pp or flush draw

[taipan168]

Shove preflop homey, saves you having to make this decision.

As played I would reluctantly fold even though this does look like a stop 'n' go. You're basically hoping that opp has a flush draw, Ax, Kx or some other unpaired hand that missed the board and even then you may split the pot rather than winning it because the board is paired.

If I had pocket pairs 44-99 I would call however.

[lockpull]

PP or putting you to test for half of your remaining stack.
Shove PF saves this spot.

[drmcboy]

Well, I think this spot def shows why shoving pre may be better if we don't want to call.

For sure you should make it 2.5x instead of 3x

FWIW, note that pairs overwhelm the range here

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

258,390 games 0.005 secs 51,678,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 3s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.317% 24.08% 01.24% 62222 3193.50 { 44 }
Hand 1: 74.683% 73.45% 01.24% 189781 3193.50 { 99-22, AsJs, KsQs, JsTs, Ts9s, 7s6s, Ac4d }


---

573,210 games 0.016 secs 35,825,625 games/sec

Board: Ts 3s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.091% 30.67% 00.42% 175787 2429.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 68.909% 68.49% 00.42% 392565 2429.00 { 99-22, AsJs, KsQs, JsTs, Ts9s, 7s6s, Ac4d }



also lol at homey

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QhuBIkPXn0

[tuuk2]

One of the reasons why I play low stakes (other than bankroll management) is to get better. I'm trying to learn in a "real" environment instead of theoretically. Sure, I want to win and I want to make money. I've never deposited money into Stars and I hope I never have to. I'm not a big time grinder, maybe 1 game a night after the kids have gone to bed and maybe a couple more on weekends. But back to my original question: If I go all-in here, what have I learned? I think that I need to be faced with tough decisions occasionally, otherwise I'll never grow as a player. I agree that going all-in is the simplist solution, and certainly it's good strategy, but in my case, going all-in doesn't help me grow as a player. Would you agree to that? Or am I just being stupid?

[Sir Pawnalot]

Poker is a game which is constantly changing. Players evolve and so does the standard strategies. That is why I find it hard to say whether you should do this or that.

But I did a lot of experiments with different things in poker- still do. One of my experiments involved calling every single insta all-in move for a period of time and keeping statistics on them. It is a long time since I conducted that experiment so I do not remember the details- but most (around 80%) insta all-in moves was weak- to my surprise.

Only strong hands that insta-shoved like this were sets on flops which 3 of the same suit.

The rationale for shoving weak hands is that they think they get extra fold equity. Every insta move is pre meditated. If someone has planned to go all in no matter what- and then flops something....they think for a second or two.

If they are strong...why would they want to fold you out ? (we know, but we are talking about fish right?). He would most probably 3 bet with TT, JJ, QQ, KK and AA and AK preflop (villain dependent oc). This leaves us with KQ, AJ, 99, 88, 77 and 66. With 99, 88 I find it hard to believe he wont check-raise for extra value (unless he is smart and do not want to risk elimination). This leads me to weigh his range towards AJ, KQ and less on the pairs I mentioned.

Thing is- even though most insta shoves were weak when I did the experiment- does not mean it is like that now. You need to have more information about villain before you snap call this one.

Also, think about the implications of your actions. If you snap call people will fear you like Satan. If you fold, people might think you will tilt and that reduces your general fold equity. They also might attack you more because they see you as a pushover.

Please do not read the above. Rather go through your hand history and see how he played all his hands. Put the hand in question in context and THEN decide for yourself what you should have done. Nail his tendencies and give the MTF a beating he will never forget next time you meet him...

[tuuk2]

Actually, in my more limited experience, I've also noticed that a short stacker will go instant all-in with air. Normally in the showdowns I've seen, the bluffers have a high Ace and they've raised pre-flop. In this case, I was just called, so I'm not putting him on an ace. For those who are just dying to know how this hand ended, here you are.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00+$0.40 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t2445)
SB (t6285)
BB (t1560)
UTG (t2432)
MP (t2278)

Hero's M: 5.75

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
2 folds, Hero bets t600, 1 fold, BB calls t400

Flop: (t1425) 10, 3, 10 (2 players)
BB bets t935 (All-In), Hero calls t935

Turn: (t3295) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3295) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t3295

Results:
Hero had A, Q (one pair, tens).
BB had J, K (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero won t3295

[Sir Pawnalot]

I TOLD YOU!!!

[taipan168]

Just because he happened to have something you beat on this occasion doesn't mean that this is the right play. You need to think about the range of hands that he might have, some of which beat you and some of which you beat. If you don't have Pokerstove, download it right now!

[drmcboy]

tai did you see the range I ran? Why would you fold here but call with 44?

[taipan168]

tai did you see the range I ran? Why would you fold here but call with 44?

I did, guess that's my lesson to not shoot from the hip before running a range in Pokerstove.

I'll run the ICM on this a little later.

[poker3player333]

Shove preflop homey, saves you having to make this decision.

As played I would reluctantly fold even though this does look like a stop 'n' go. You're basically hoping that opp has a flush draw, Ax, Kx or some other unpaired hand that missed the board and even then you may split the pot rather than winning it because the board is paired.

If I had pocket pairs 44-99 I would call however.

I agree with the shove preflop, but I fell a fold here is correct.

[tuuk2]

Taipan, I agree with you that just because I was right this time doesn't mean that it was the right decision. In fact, after I made the decision I became unsure if it was a correct call, hence the post. I'm glad I made the right read in this case, but I'm not afraid to say it was probably more luck than skill that I won this hand. I will take your advice though and download pokerstove. I'm always looking for ways to improve my game and thanks for yours and everyone else's advice on this forum.

[Sir Pawnalot]

You people assign such flat ranges. Even though his range consists of x, y and z does not mean they are all equally likely.

If OP had a strong read I do not think you should discourage him from trusting his reads. I do not think you mean that though.

All poker tools give you more information. This is an obvious edge. It may be detrimental to learning if you base your decisions solely on them.

There are successful players that are intuitive and successful players that are mathematical. Intuition gives information and mathematical approaches give statistical edge. The masters of this game are great in both.

[taipan168]

The real learning from this hand isn't whether the postflop call was good or bad (which is to me, at best marginal). It is that Hero should have just shoved preflop and saved himself from a tough decision on the flop.

[bjsaust]

You can weight ranges in pokerstove if you want to.

[caddie444]

If I had pocket pairs 44-99 I would call however.

so you're folding 33????







sorry couldn't resist

:P

[frreshprince]

yeah that kind of situation is always tough, im actually suprised that the big blind didn't just go all in preflop or fold. im not sure how you can flat call 400 more like that because hes obviously going to be pot commited, and probably has made up his mind to shove reguardless, either forcing you off the hand or getting lucky.
good call though, im not sure if i would've made it, because you're still OK wiith chips and have time to regroup, and it was pretty much your tourney life on the line. but it worked out well!

[vennix]

Remember this is a game of patience. Have doubt in your hand and majority of your stack on the line FOLD. I get in this situation alot playing small limit games since my br is not that high this is where i'm stuck at. It is hard to raise a br when you are stuck playing small games like this. Anyway it is very common to come across fish that will stab at a pot like this attempting to steal it. However, if I was in your position I believe the smartest thing to do is say there's better hands and fold. A10s(suited) J10s and K10s low stakes games these are commonly played hands to small raises. Personally I like playing 109s just seems to crack alot of high hands from past experience. You'll come to find hands you like and others to fold to any bet. EX JJ for me that hand is terrible only did good with it one time in a house game where I flopped a set and turned the Quad !!