AKs, scary flop, nut FD on turn ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats 20/15/2.0 over about 240 hands. I didn't c-bet the flop because that's a pretty bad flop for my hand and I didn't want to get C-Rd off it when I have some possibility to improve on the turn.

Now he leads the turn and I have the nut FD, a gutshot and two overs (which are very likely not good outs). Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1515)
SB (t1510)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1545)
UTG+1 (t1460)
MP1 (t1555)
MP2 (t1470)
Hero (MP3) (t1465)
CO (t1480)

Hero's M: 32.56

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, A
2 folds, MP1 calls t30, 1 fold, Hero bets t120, 4 folds, MP1 calls t90

Flop: (t285) 10, 9, J (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t285) 8 (2 players)
MP1 bets t180, Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

His range is still pretty wide given flop action so no reason to think he doesn't even just have 1 pair.

I think the overs are ok sometimes, you have about 2.5 to 1 with a lot of nut outs and position. Sounds like a call.

[rong]

I just call. Only in this for the flush or st8.

12 outs, just shy of 1 in 4 on hitting, 465 in the pot, 180 to call, need to get a call of 255 or more on the turn if you hit to make the risk/return worthwhile. you have position on him too. Plus, it's not a huge dent in your stack if you miss, and you do have a chance of taking his stack if you hit, as he may struggle to drop the q / kq / aq / 7 if the flush hits or the kx or kq if the q hits.

So on the grounds of that I'm calling. Wouldn't raise as if he has the str8 he's not going anywhere and I don't want to risk unnecessary chips.

[rong]

[quote="taipan168"]Opp's stats 20/15/2.0 over about 240 hands. quote]

What do these stats mean? I have never had a HUD so it's meaningless to me and may well effect my decision making.

Thanks.

[natso]

I tend to not like raising AK in the early stages unless I'm the first one in. It's hard to win the hand preflop with the blinds so low and when you miss, you're often in no man's land. Is it too weak to just limp preflop here and see what develops?

The guy raises 3/4 of the hands he plays. What range do you think he limps with?

As played, I would fold, not ready to chase yet.

[GatorJH]

I am about to get rough here natso so you may want to either put on your thick skin jacket or stop reading and move on to the next topic.

Both of your comments above tell me that you are playing scared and will not be successful in SNG's (or even any poker game for that matter) unless you learn to think logically instead of emotionally.

I tend to not like raising AK in the early stages unless I'm the first one in. It's hard to win the hand preflop with the blinds so low and when you miss, you're often in no man's land. Is it too weak to just limp preflop here and see what develops?

limping pre-flop with AK in ANY stage of a tournament (with a few exceptions that would take to long to go into rigth now) is just plain dumb. In this particular hand if you limp in with AK you will most likely be playing this hand against 3-5 opponents and AK type hands play HORRIBLY against that many players.

You raise here for multiple reasons. First, you want to limit the field to one or two (at the most) players. Alsom why are you worried about winning the hand pre-flop when you will most likely still have the best hand post flop as most flops miss most players. And even if you do miss the flop, the advantage you would have is that you can then profitably c-bet most flops and take down the pot or fold to resistance because you have now narrowed your opponents range down as he should only be calling your raise with a better hand than a hand that is limped in.

As played, I would fold, not ready to chase yet.

Again, this is so weak/tight that it makes my head hurt. Let's assume we can see villains hand here and know that he holds giving him a straight AND a flush draw. At this point we are a 25% favorite to win this hand. Now lets see why this matters to us.

I am going to round off numbers to make the math easier so let's assume that the pot at the beginning of the turn is $300 and villain bets $200 so we need to call $200 to win $500. We know that we will win this hand 25% of the time so in 4 hands we win $500 once and lose $200 three times for a net loss of $100. Obviously we are not getting the correct direct odds to continue and should fold, right? NOT NECESSARILY!!!! We need to add in our implied odds and see how that affects our decision.

Lets assume that if a Q or diamond hits the river we feel villain will call a $300 river bet at least half the time. In calculating our implied odds we can now add $150 to our calculation above, which means we are now putting in $200 to win $650 (the $500 already there plus the $150 that we think he will call when we hit our hand). NOW we lose $200 three times, but win $650 once making a call here the correct decision.

Now don't get me wrong here. I am not saying that this particular situation is a clear call. The players are much smarter at the stakes Taipan plays at and therefore I think his implied odds are lower than they may be at lower stakes.

I went through all of this because you will struggle to become a winning tourney player at any stakes greater than the lowest you can play unless you start incorporating these thought processes into your game instead of just throwing out comments like "I'm not ready to chase yet".

[kstarm]

I think the hand as played is fine. I am calling the turn and re-evaluating. His bet seems small if he is trying to price you out from a draw-you would think pot-sized or more given the coordination. If he had hit a set or two pair on the flop you think he would have taken a much more aggressive line, at least I wouldn't try check raising/slowplaing on that flop.

What sort of hand do you think he is on?

Without a good read you would think AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK maybe AQ/AJ/TT would be raised pre-flop. medium pp 22-99/TT, AJ, maybe AQ typically call a pre-flop raise. For the action so far I would think 77, maybe 88 and AQ would make sense. Hard to think he would play hands like KQ (calling pre-flop oop + we know where a K is), QJ, JT etc... like this. I agree, I think you need a diamond, preferrably not the J or 9, or a Q to win this hand. Your implied odds are pretty good as a backdoor flush, or nut straight, is a little more deceptive, and it will be hard for him to get away from a straight, or set if you value bet.


@Gator: I agree with what you said. In nearly all situations you should be raising with AK pre-flop.

One problem I have run in to at lower buy-ins though is that raising standard with AK early in the SNG, especially from the blinds, does not necessary limit the field. I don't know how many times at the 1-6$ buy-ins sometimes $10 that you have 5 limpers raise to 120 (blinds 10-20), and get 4 calls. Do you think raising a larger amount is appropriate in this situation? You start putting more chips in out of position without a made hand. Thoughts?

[rong]

@Gator: I agree with what you said. In nearly all situations you should be raising with AK pre-flop.

One problem I have run in to at lower buy-ins though is that raising standard with AK early in the SNG, especially from the blinds, does not necessary limit the field. I don't know how many times at the 1-6$ buy-ins sometimes $10 that you have 5 limpers raise to 120 (blinds 10-20), and get 4 calls. Do you think raising a larger amount is appropriate in this situation? You start putting more chips in out of position without a made hand. Thoughts?

I get that all the time on pacific atr $5, ive now go to the stage where on the 10/20 blinds I raise to 100 when I'm first in and more if there are a few limpers and my position has therefore improved. It's tricky when you're BB or SB cos you're totally out of position and can have AK with 6 people in the hand. I guess sometimes there isn't that much you can do to avoid the big pot and being oop. But with AK I prefer a big pot heads up and oop to a medium sized 6 way pot.

[ArcadianRock]

Yeah, scared money is no money.

Gator is absolutely right though. AKs is in the top five best hands. Only AA, KK should really damage it otherwise it's pretty good. Postflop it can change certainly but remember, you're not always playing your cards you're playing theirs as well.

Beginner players like to think that when they bet they have a hand...don't forget bluffs exist. I just played a guy who always C-bet even the board hit low, so I just 3bet and he folded.

Some could argue here but i think a shove could have been profitable as well. He could fold or you double up. Bottom money is hardly worth the effort if you ask me, go for first.

[caddie444]

I think the implied odds against villains range are high enough to peel here.

Having position makes me lean even more towards a call. He may even lead river with a bare 7, and I think if he has the Q he will likely b/c any low diamond river.

I discount the A's and K's as outs, so it will be a tough call if one of them hits and he leads again.

Some could argue here but i think a shove could have been profitable as well. He could fold or you double up. Bottom money is hardly worth the effort if you ask me, go for first.

I think shoving is baaaad. All Q's snap, and some 7's. What hands are we trying to represent with the shove, KQ? QJ? We surely would've bet the flop with these hands. I don't like it. A shove basically looks exactly like what we have, a hand that doesn't want to be called. Plus villain still has nut hands in his range.