Bubble hand AQ

[RockyMoose]

As played, is this a fold? SB is solid and would not shove like that without expecting a call. (I know, shove preflop, but I didn't.)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 10+1 Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t6810)
Hero (UTG) (t2350)
Button (t2220)
SB (t2120)

Hero's M: 9.79

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero raises to t420, 1 fold, SB raises to t2120 (All-In)

Hero?

[Projectp]

I might fold here expecting to see a high pocket pair, not sure though. Id like to see what everyone else would do.

[CBAT]

Fold. You still have ~12BB after this fold. No point calling an all in here with a coinflip as the absolute best scenario.

[onlyplay72o]

Yeah fold is the best choice here. Like Cbat said you'll have plenty of chips left still cash in the sng

[Poker Orifice]

What range of hands would you put SB on here? And how does your AQ look up against them. Coinflip at best I'd say (unless he's shoving back w AJ... only hand you'd REALLY like to see). You have what.. around 12bb's if you fold... but you will also be on the blinds next, giving you more like 10bb's but still in contention.
I wonder what this would look like put into an ICM calc.?

[rong]

Can someone explain this fold to me please.

It's the bubbe, SB could be pushing with all sorts, definitely KQ or AJ, even AT or worse. SB hasn't called, he's pushed. How can you put someones pushing range so tight on the bubble? I thought on the bubble the rule was you could pretty much steel with anything. Yet you're about to drop a big Ace.

Once you fold here your 12 BB's mean you're shoving a good few times over the next 15 hands, over which there is a fair chance you will be called and be underdog, as you have now put yourself in a position where you really need to steal, and therefore big stack with his 6000 chips will call you with a reasonable hand, knowing you're now playing a desperate steeling game.

Or am I misunderstanfing the state of play here?

[2ndline.4thstreet]

My initial reaction was to fold because if he's hoping for a call as OP said he'd expect a hand like AQ and SB has him crushed. I'd wait for a better position to move in.

[rong]

OK, if you were certain he wouldn't push without expecting a raise then fair enough. But with blinds at this level, on the bubble, how can you put anyone on that tight a range? The steal leaves him in a much stronger position than hero, which justifies doing it with a much wider range than that with which he would be happy to get called.

[taipan168]

Can someone explain this fold to me please.

It's the bubbe, SB could be pushing with all sorts, definitely KQ or AJ, even AT or worse. SB hasn't called, he's pushed. How can you put someones pushing range so tight on the bubble? I thought on the bubble the rule was you could pretty much steel with anything. Yet you're about to drop a big Ace.

To understand why you need to fold here, it's not just about opp's range, there is a big ICM effect here since if you call and lose you'll be crippled:

- If you fold you'll have 1930 chips worth 18.7% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you'll have 4630 chips worth 34.3% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you'll have 230 chips worth 3.1% of the prize pool.

Therefore, you need to be at least (18.7-3.1)/(34.3-3.1) = 50% to win against opp's RANGE to make this a good call. Even if opp is shoving very light, say 55+, A9s+, ATo+, KQ then calling with AQo is still only marginal:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.668% 44.80% 04.86% { 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.332% 45.47% 04.86% { AQo }

Also, with a 15x BB stack I doubt that opp would be shoving this wide, making the hand a fold.

I ran this hand in SNG Wiz and interestingly enough it said that our shove range here should be QQ+ assuming reasonably tight ranges for opps. That said, I think raise/fold is OK with hands like AQ in this spot.

[rong]

I have recently downloaded SNGWIZ - can you adjust for having already raised and opponent having pushed - ie should you call given you have raised and opponent has pushed?

I can't figure out how to do it?

[rong]

ignore that question, been playing around with sngwiz now for an hour or so and just running hands though it that I've played tonight. It's the greatest piece of software ever. Amazed by some of the decisions it comes out with.

I'm tempted to stop playing poker for a week and just train myself on this everynight.

[rong]

btw, ty for the explanation above Taipan

[cow344]

Well I played 3 sit and goes in a row where I got second place in all three by folding A x hands, I did not have to do taipan168 calculation since I want to build my bankroll! For me that way of thinking works!

With a small pair your opponent still is over 50% to win!

A K suited in that situation is a fold because they need more help from felt cards, and they are unknown at this point!

Just build your bankroll or give yourself a better chance to build bankroll. Good fold, I have seen FultTilt`s flops and do not like their random card generator since it does not like me.

[duczak]

easy snap call in a 10$ sit

[taipan168]

easy snap call in a 10$ sit

What? Did you read my explanation of why raise/fold is the right move?!?!?

[gingerwizard]

Well I played 3 sit and goes in a row where I got second place in all three by folding A x hands, I did not have to do taipan168 calculation since I want to build my bankroll! For me that way of thinking works!

With a small pair your opponent still is over 50% to win!

A K suited in that situation is a fold because they need more help from felt cards, and they are unknown at this point!

Just build your bankroll or give yourself a better chance to build bankroll. Good fold, I have seen FultTilt`s flops and do not like their random card generator since it does not like me.

FYP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why is everyone continually asking for advice on hands on this forum??? Stop asking about hands. Stop trying to do calculations. Forget understanding how to make money through SNGS. Just follow this simple piece of advice from cow344

Just build your bankroll

When I think of all the time i've wasted.....

[caddie444]

I ran this hand in SNG Wiz and interestingly enough it said that our shove range here should be QQ+ assuming reasonably tight ranges for opps. That said, I think raise/fold is OK with hands like AQ in this spot.

What is to be done with JJ and lower then?

I know its not a huge deal also, but if you are planning on b/f preflop with a hand like AQ, would a minraise preflop be horrible with these stack sizes? Just askin'...

I'm throwin this in preflop if I decide to play it at all. A major part of my decision is the bigstack in the BB. If he's any good he could shove over preflop, or even pull a stop'n'go given our standard preflop raise. I don't want to give him that option personally.


Oh and as played I fold this pretty quick...

easy snap call in a 10$ sit

What? Did you read my explanation of why raise/fold is the right move?!?!?

Obv not