$11 JJ facing raise preflop

[cag8f]

Villian had been playing relatively tight and hadn't gotten out of line before. I have FE if I want to push. If I call, am I playing for set value or getting it all in with a flop of all unders?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 10+1 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t2040)
Button (t1905)
Hero (SB) (t2140)
BB (t3425)
UTG (t2040)
MP (t1950)

Hero's M: 17.83

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
UTG bets t240, 3 folds, Hero ???

[taipan168]

I'd probably just shove it right here since the chips in the pot already are 17% of your stack and you'll be first to act postflop if you just flat call.

If you do just call, I'd definitely get it in on an all-unders flop (as well as if you hit a set obv).

[gingerwizard]

I think a call is pretty rank given you'll be OOP and not knowing what to do if any over card comes.

I shove cos you're still ahead of his opening range, you have FE and are about a flip with his calling range.

[TLR]

What range do you put villian on ? I think his most likely range is AT+, 88+ if he is tight.
I think both pushing over and calling with an intend of shoving any non A flop is OK

[drmcboy]

I think both pushing over and calling with an intend of shoving any non A flop is OK

re read stack sizes?

[gingerwizard]

What range do you put villian on ? I think his most likely range is AT+, 88+ if he is tight.
I think both pushing over and calling with an intend of shoving any non A flop is OK

Is calling off 10% of our stack not just weak here? with 17% of our stack up for grabs, surely shoving is best with any sort of standard fold equity in this spot?

[drmcboy]

I think it's between 3b 650/shove all flops and shove, I can't think of any hand I would call with here except maybe AA. At least if we had overs we would avoid getting it in dead, though.

[gingerwizard]

I think it's between 3b 650/shove all flops and shove, I can't think of any hand I would call with here except maybe AA. At least if we had overs we would avoid getting it in dead, though.

With caveat that you can't fold if 4-bet all in.

idk, I'm more comfortable with shove.

[GatorJH]

I think it's between 3b 650/shove all flops and shove, I can't think of any hand I would call with here except maybe AA. At least if we had overs we would avoid getting it in dead, though.

With caveat that you can't fold if 4-bet all in.

idk, I'm more comfortable with shove.

I disagree that you can't 3bet here then fold to a shove. You should only call a 4bet/shove here if you know villain is loose and will stack off lightly. In this case villain's 4bet range is pretty tight and most likely has us crushed.

Think about it this way.....

What is villains UTG open range? Of that range, when does he fold, what does he flat a 3bet with and what does he 4bet/shove with.

IMO stack sizes are the key here. Everybody is fairly even and most players have at least 25BB's. This allows for more pre-flop movement than usual.


The value of 3betting here is two fold. First, you can further define his range based on his action. Second, even if he shoves and you fold you still have just over 18BB's left.


If chip stacks were smaller or villain was looser I think that would make me lean towards a push, however given the opposite here I think I like the 3bet line.

[drmcboy]

Think about it this way.....

What is villains UTG open range? Of that range, when does he fold, what does he flat a 3bet with and what does he 4bet/shove with.

this is good advice, did you (Gator) take it?

If you think he's so tight he only shoves over with QQ+ 3 betting seems pretty bad since I assume he'll fold everything else. If it's QQ+, AK then we have to call. So I am puzzled by your 3b fold line.

What good does defining his range do us when after we 3bet we have one bet left? is your plan to give up on some flops after we 3b?

The good think about 3b vs shove is that we may keep lower PPs around and he may do something dumb like call with KQ then fold when he misses the flop rather than shove over pre. Or he still folds pre flop which is OK too. We should shove if we think he'll shove over a 3 bet with flip hands but won't call a push with them although I can't really see that.

[GatorJH]

you and I are closer than you think.

Personally I don't think he folds much, if any, of his range to a 3bet. Therefore, when he calls we can take the top portion of his range out and now have control of the hand and can profitably open shove a majority of the flops.

As for 3bet folding it is possible my thought process is off here. If we bet 650 and he shoves the pot goes to 2,770. If we call we are putting in 1,390 to win 2,770 which is just under 2 to 1. Against a range of QQ+, AK we are a 3 to 1 dog.

If I have some time this evening I will run an ICM model through the various potential scenarios to see how they play out.

[drmcboy]

Against a range of QQ+, AK we are a 3 to 1 dog.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

349,310,016 games 0.005 secs 69,862,003,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }

[GatorJH]

Oops, Sorry for the confusion. I had his 4bet shove range narrowed down to KK+, AKs, which we are a 3 to 1 dog against. If you add in either AKo or QQ to the range then calling there is +ev.

[cag8f]

Stack sizes make this a tough one. Reasonable cases have been made for calling, raising, and shoving.

Shoving -- I'm ahead of his pre-flop raising range, so I think most agree that shoving is +EV. The question is, is it more +EV than calling or raising?

Calling -- This seems wrong to me. First of all, overcards (and no J) come half the time. Second of all, on a flop of all unders, I'm still behind a nontrivial amount of the time, either because villian has a higher overpair, or he spiked a set. I haven't worked out any specific percentages, but I feel like I could be safe on only ~25% of flops at best. Since 12% of those are when a J hits, I'm only safe on ~12% of non-J flops. Yes calling lets villian bluff the flop with something I beat, but I would have to check to him for that to happen, and he could check behind. Or if I bet out a flop of unders and he shoves over, do I release? Certainly AA would do that, but so would TT. Seems like calling just leaves me in the dark too often (someone let me know if there is a flaw in this reasoning).

Raisng -- I personally feel that most hands I beat will fold, and hands I lose to will 4b shove. This has the benefit of letting me get away from a hand in which I'm dominated. But I agree with Gator that IF he calls, we can assume I have the best hand preflop. But an A, K, or Q hits the flop 50% of the time. Am I correct that I'm shutting down (or getting to showdown cheaply) in this case?

An ICM investigation would be good, but there are just so many potential actions that I can't quite wrap my brain around it.

[gingerwizard]

4bet shove range for average donk has AK and maybe even AQ. (I've seen A4, JT when they just can't stand to be 3-bet.), So you have to call the 4bet shove.

You can't give up on any flop if you three bet.

There are two things here. If your opponent would fold pairs and flip hands to a shove but call a 3bet then in expectation we do slightly better by raising. However this expected increase is very marginal and the lower variance play is the shove.

I would argue that making a +$EV play that nearly but doesn't quite maximise $EV but has a much lower variance can often be preferrable to making the utility optimal play. Particularly in SNGs when our model does not give us true expectations but estimated surrogates.