K5o BB special two pair, flush on river ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is a loose donk, stats 36/9/2.5 over 47 hands. I'm pot committed on the river despite the flush getting there, right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t7140)
SB (t2360)
Hero (BB) (t4000)

Hero's M: 10.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 5
Button calls t200, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: (t575) J, 5, K (2 players)
Hero bets t450, Button calls t450

Turn: (t1475) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t1100, Button calls t1100

River: (t3675) 3 (2 players)
Hero ????

[gingerwizard]

Think so. Easily could have KQ, 87, KT, K9, JT and lost of other 1-2 pair hands you beat.

Question is thin value or bluff catch c/c?

Not sure. I tend to default to the latter and probably need to work on this

[GatorJH]

I'm not sure there is a ton of value in leading out here unless you think a hand like Jx will call 3 streets. Personally I am discounting Kx from his range because I think he raises those type hands on either the flop or especially the turn.

You're certainly not going to get value out of a missed str8 draw and this type of villain looks too stationy to shove a weak hand that he thinks is good but would probably wake up and shove if he hit his FD.

Tough spot and in the heat of the battle I would probably check here and try to soul read him if he pushed.

[caddie444]

With this opponent I think I am leaning towards v-betting the river.

I think if we check, he checks behind mostly all the time with his one pair hands, where if we bet we may get a call. I think he rarely has 2 pair on the river, so betting to get value out of these hands is thin. IE- most of the value we get is from one pair hands.

I think if we check the only hands that really bluff shove are Q-T, A-T (maybe Q-9?) So checking to get value out of these hands is minimal.

It's close but I I tend to want to make a bet. I just feel that there are more hands that he will call a bet with than he will bluff shove / value bet with himself.

[kstarm]

Can someone remind me what the aggressiveness scale is for HUD stats...where does 2.5 sit? . Have you seen him play, and over play a bunch of suited cards so far?

I do not think that you are commited, but I tend to put a lot of value on fold equity. You would have ~2300 left which is still plenty to put pressure on the other players with, and it sounds like this guy is really trying to give his chips away.

I favor check calling for catching his bet even if he pushes. I think that value betting is a little awkard with the stack sizes in relation to the pot. I think there are definitely enough bluff hands in his range, and single and two pair hands that we beat that make check/calling profitable. Yes, he will turn up with a flush some % of the time, but I think there are so many other hands we are ahead of, especially with the heart being a good bluff card for him.