99, flop over-pair facing lead-out

[kstarm]

Villian is at all four of my other tables and is tight-aggressive. I do have PT/HUD just not with me at the moment. His overbet I felt really was trying to price out draws. My pre-flop range for him would be something like 88-TT+, AJ+. I think he regards me as fairly solid as I have only showdown big hands at other tables. With the BB left to act easy fold right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1460)
MP1 (t1430)
MP2 (t1470)
Hero (CO) (t1470)
Button (t1590)
SB (t1460)
BB (t1590)
UTG (t3030)

Hero's M: 49.00

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
2 folds, MP1 calls t20, MP2 bets t80, Hero calls t80, 2 folds, BB calls t60, 1 fold

Flop: (t270) 4, 2, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets t280, Hero ?

[Taicho]

I'm not so sure. That could be QQ pricing out draws or that could be AK making a healthy c-bet with the same purpose. It's still early in the tournament so I'd probably fold and wait for a better spot to get my money in.

[caddie444]

You've played for set value, and you have missed. You are ruining your implied odds on the preflop call if you continue in this spot.

There are a ton of turn cards that are frightening, so basically your decision is to shove or to fold.

I think folding is by far the better option with one player betting pot and one player behind you yet to act.

This spot is just too marginal for me with these blind levels to be committing my whole stack.

[taipan168]

Always tough to let go of an overpair, but with your read I'm calling the preflop raise by a solid player to play for set value only. If we say that opp only leads out like this with 77+ and a FD + overs, you can't commit your whole stack here:

Board: 4s 2h 3h
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 32.804% 30.49% 02.31% { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 67.196% 64.88% 02.31% { 77+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh }

[GatorJH]

agreed. set it or forget it here.