AKs OOP on monotone rag flop

[sil693]

x-post from blog.

vs 34/9/1.6 over 200

fold to 3bet - 50%, 2/4 times.

seeing as though I don't have the Ac or Kc, is check/folding this flop fine? or would you still cbet? his fold to cbet in 3bet pots is 1/1, in std raised pots its 38%. I figure practically nothing in his range w a club folds.

c/f seems so weak, but if i bet and get called I'm OOP and likely have to c/f most turns.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG b&mAKQJA ($48.75)
UTG+1 bigchiefds ($50.00)
MP1 Battlewench ($13.50)
MP2 Hannesd83 ($68.35)
MP3 ept 234 ($83.35)
CO ravobravo ($15.50)
BTN Sutek77 ($20.70)
SB oscbourne ($70.05)
BB Hero ($56.45)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BB
4 folds, ept 234 raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $7, ept 234 calls $5

Flop: ($14.25, 2 players)
Hero ($49.45)?

[noni]

check fold from here for me

[Deanglow]

definitely cbet

[Renton]

i would c/f

[ATOTHEC101]

I'd check fold as well.

[d0zer]

definitely cbet

i would c/f

Ok guys, if this isn't indicative of needing a little more elaboration I don't know what is.

I'll take a stab:

Villain (a 34/9) is probably calling a 3b with a fairly wide range -- A good chunk of his opening range. If his continuing range is TT+ / any club then there's a lot of broadways without clubs that are probably folding.

For every unpaired broadway hand in his range, there's 16 combos but only 4 of those have at least one club in them. So even if we give villain a range of {AK,AQ,KQ, TT+}, there are 36 broadways that are folding, 12 that are continuing and 6+6+6+6+3 = 27 pairs that are continuing. So 39 combos continuing vs 36 that are folding = a 2/3rd pot cbet should yield some profit. Throw in more broadways and it's even better, take out KQ and it's worse.

This of course assumes villain does fold broadways without clubs. It also doesn't talk about our equity when we're called.