$33 Weird spot 3 handed

[sinister1]

3 handed at the final table. My image is fairly TAGG but I have opened it up a good deal as we have become short-handed and as my stack grew. Vllain has been LAGG the whole final table and has had the chip lead to do it with until recently. LAGG villain is opening a lot of pots and minraises from the SB more than 60% of the time. I have defended somewhat light but folded several times. I have only 3 bet him once or twice (probably should have been more). Post flop villain is typically aggro and c-bets like 90%. When he checks, he will cbet the turn if it gets there, or float light and donk lead the turn. This is one of the few times I saw him go for a checkraise. His range seems pretty polarized to me but I still did not know what to do.

If it matters the short stack is not very good and plays weird but straightforward. He only gets aggro when he has a hand and just bets pot. He has flatted preflop and folded several spots when it was terrible to do so with his stack size. He should have gone broke like 3 times already and is probably not long for this FT.

Last thing fwiw I think I smoke either of these two guys HU. Payouts are 1st: $1250, 2nd: $820, 3rd: $480

Bodog $33 4k gt. Blinds: 1k/2k, Ante: 200

BTN (39k)
Villain is SB (61k)
Hero is BB (101k)

Preflop: Dealt to Hero
1 fold, Villain raises to 4k, Hero calls 2k.

Flop (8.6k):
Villain checks, Hero bets 5.7k, Villain raises to 14.3k, Hero?

[CorbinDallas]

i would look at it like this...

based on his image....

15% air.
15% hands with a 5 or 9.
35% draw.... QT, 78, T8, Q8, T7, 2 spades seems unlikey given your hand but still possible.
35% top pair or better.

without number crunching....

vs a Jack we are still 47%
vs a weaker draw we are near 70%
vs a set/2pair we are still 27%

he may fold a nine and probably a five to our shove.... but his raise looks pretty pot committed.... but we can't rule out air or a fold.

i'd say push. there's a good enough chance you will win... and even if you lose... you still have 20 BBs.

[fjuanl]

the stacks arent ideal, but I'd still pwn this guy and 3bet him to 11k here unless you have a read that he's a total spewmonkey and is incapable of folding OR if your image is awful. You put a ton of pressure on villain when he knows the 3rd place stack has so few chips and the payout jump is pretty significant

as played I dont think he has total air much because this is a disaster board to do it on. since he could be on 60% or more I can't see folding the hand when you hit a flop that good