FT 45 person $3.25, AJ in BB facing UTG push

[caddie444]

Haven't played in about a month, fired up 9 tables at the $3.25 stake to get my feet wet again, this is at the FT of a 45. UTG has pushed the last 2/4 hands since the blinds have gone up, he just showed down A-8 and busted KK.





PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00+$0.25 Tournament, 800/1600 Blinds 75 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1359)
Button (t9063)
SB (t5163)
Hero (BB) (t16100)
UTG (t31320)
MP (t4495)

Hero's M: 5.65

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
UTG bets t31245 (All-In), 4 folds, Hero ???

[poker3player333]

I'd make this call, knowing he shoved 2/4 last hands and hoping he has 2 under or something like J6 where he is overcoated. Also depends if you're itm and how confident you feel in this game.

[hopeful]

The fact that he showed down A8 might confirm the fact he is pushing somewhere near the top 10% (A8s falls just outside 10.1%). If this is the case i think its a fold, we have 44% equity. If you think that his range is a lot wider than this, maybe including any Ace then its a call as equity goes up as we beat all the small aces. You are 57% against top 10% and A2+.
Personally I would fold it, you are in the money with 3 small stacks. Your ICM equity is 25%, the last thnig you need is an all in against the big stack, the only people who would win are those sitting out the hand. If you win ICM only goes up to 35%.
Fold and wathc the smaller stacks bust.

[Sprayed]

He's the big stack and and his using his stack to push the table around. He knows that the rest of the table is playing tight in fear of busting. He's actually making the correct play and can almost push any two every time and have it be +EV.

You're second in chips and there are several short stacks that will be busting soon. I think that this is fold not due to his range necessarily, but from an ICM perspective. If you call and bust you are throwing equity to the short stacks.

[tuuk2]

As much as I'd hate to do it, I'd fold here. I'm sure that your A-J is good, but only pre-flop. If you call and win, you've got roughly 32,000 chips and are in first. If he catches a card you're out. You're pretty much guaranteed at least 4th if you fold here, more than likely you'll make the top 3.

Having said all that, I ran the scenario through PokerStove (first time I've ever used it, but not the last) and you're a 51-48 favorite against a random top 10% hand. So in essence, you're flipping for your tournament life here.

Some please correct me if I used PokerStove incorrectly.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.618% 47.85% 03.77% 133547957 10519920.50 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 48.382% 44.61% 03.77% 124517754 10519920.50 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

[sftbllfvr]

ive really got alot of reading up to do,because i have no idea what all these numbers and percentages stand for!!
i'll get my glasses on.

[caddie444]

Gahh I timed out and folded. Fwiw I snapped him off with AA when we were down to 3 when he shoved 9-2 offsuit. This makes me believe he was shoving pretty wide in this spot.

How wide would he have to be shoving then for this to be a call?

[Sprayed]

With the AJo hand, even if he is pushing any two, you can't call with AJo unless you are totally throwing ICM out the window which I think would be silly if you are going to grind these. Look at the stack sizes. You are almost guaranteed 2nd. I ran this in sngwizard and set the payouts accordingly. If he is shoving any two you can only call with 99+ for this to be profitable. Like I said in my previous post, you're throwing equity to the other players that are going to be busting soon.

[mcatdog]

You are almost guaranteed 2nd.

I wouldn't go that far.

But yeah you really do have to fold here unless you have TT+. You don't need quite as much equity as SNG Wiz says, because if you double through him, you get to be the guy winning every hand and pushing the table around, but balance that against the fact that he's not shoving literally any two here, and TT+ is my calling range.

[Sprayed]

That's why I said almost.

[2ndline.4thstreet]

The fact that he showed down A8 might confirm the fact he is pushing somewhere near the top 10% (A8s falls just outside 10.1%). If this is the case i think its a fold, we have 44% equity. If you think that his range is a lot wider than this, maybe including any Ace then its a call as equity goes up as we beat all the small aces. You are 57% against top 10% and A2+.
Personally I would fold it, you are in the money with 3 small stacks. Your ICM equity is 25%, the last thnig you need is an all in against the big stack, the only people who would win are those sitting out the hand. If you win ICM only goes up to 35%.
Fold and wathc the smaller stacks bust.

This.

Chances are you have him beat, but I'm not risking it at this level of the game.

[gn2056]

I would fold, but I would say your probably ahead, and with online poker we know how little that means. I dont like pushing there against a bigger stack, hopefully other players get frustrated and chop him away or he carries you to headsup.