99 makes a straight on the river ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 14/5/1.4 over 102 hands. Insta call the river shove over? There's only one hand that I'm worried about, after all.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1420)
CO (t3130)
Button (t1425)
SB (t1645)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t3040)
Hero (MP1) (t1340)

Hero's M: 29.78

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero calls t30, 4 folds, BB checks

Flop: (t75) J, 7, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t75) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t75) 8 (2 players)
BB bets t120, Hero raises to t400, BB raises to t1470 (All-In), Hero ????

[GatorJH]

Insta fist pump call then when he flips over Q9 throw something at the wall cuz you know the poker Gods hate you.

[rong]

Insta fist pump call then when he flips over Q9 throw something at the wall cuz you know the poker Gods hate you.

Agreed, but try not to throw the laptop or the wife will hate you too.

No way you can drop this here though.

[kstarm]

You said it yourself, (in my best Taipan voice) "There's only one hand that I'm worried about, after all." oh and by the way, just in case you missed it, you have two of the nines

No way am I laying this down.

[fulksy]

thats what he gets for slow playing his set of 4's insta call imo

[taipan168]

Insta fist pump call then when he flips over Q9 throw something at the wall cuz you know the poker Gods hate you.

OK, I need a new something and a new wall. Thanks for the responses, I knew I had to call here.

[GatorJH]

Insta fist pump call then when he flips over Q9 throw something at the wall cuz you know the poker Gods hate you.

OK, I need a new something and a new wall. Thanks for the responses, I knew I had to call here.

I laughed really hard when I read this (not at your bad beat though).

[drmcboy]

I think pre is pretty horrible but I know you won't listen. At least bet the flop or the turn, are you hoping the 14/5 is going to fire exactly one shell and even so are you sure that beats the value of winnnig the current pot plus calls from 7x and 4x?

Anyway

LOL at fist pump calling here. Maybe you guys like hoping for chops more than I do or telling bad beat stories.

Either raise/fold river or cold call if you can't handle that. He already doubled the pot for you which set off alarms since he has no reason to think you have anything. It's just crazy imo to think he shoves JT/J8 here which is I guess what you all think he has?

Again, he is 14/5, his leaks are probably not related to huge spews or huge bluffs. And he's not checking a set three streets then getting it in on this board hoping you somehow have two pair. If he is running a HUD/paying attention he knows for sure you don't have TPTK/2pr anyway (he can in fact put you on this exact hand but whatever). Also he'll know we don't have Q9 so he can shove any 9 happily.

[AFchung]

raise preflop. why would you want to limp into his bigblind and let any two cards see a free flop?

[GatorJH]

villain could easily have 78, 56 or even JT (hoping to c/r on the turn) here.

I agree that leading out on the flop or turn is a better line (I also would have raised 99 pre but that is because I hardly ever limp when first in the pot) but as played I think there a a few hands that we beat here and aren't necessarily playing for a split pot.

[drmcboy]

Are you thinking he's 3 betting two pair for value or as a bluff? why do you think he can't read the board? would you 3 bet 78/56 here? It's like there is a big read posted above that I can't see that says DONK but it just says 14/5, I re checked.

I can see thin value in raising the river since he might call with those hands (again, not if he's paying attention to tai but OK) but he never 3 bets them. Tai has a 9 and he's worried, this guy should be terrified with 78.

[taipan168]

I think pre is pretty horrible but I know you won't listen.

Why do you say this? I'm horrified at the thought that I'm not open to different ideas. On reflection I think you're right, I should have raised this pre and bet either the flop or the turn.

Maybe on the river the dreaded min-raise would have been a better play, that way at least if I want to let it go (which I can see the logic of) I lose less chips

[GatorJH]

I agree that it would be pretty thin and I also agree that in most cases a 14/5 wouldn't 3bet/shove with those hands, but I have certainly seen weirder lines at those stakes (and higher).

Net net I guess you are right that it isn't a "fist pump call" but as played it is a call none the less.

[rong]

yeah you gotta call that. Based on the raise you could hazzard a guess that he has a 9, but the only cards you dont want to see are Q9, more often than not you're gonna find that you're facing a bluff or a split pot.

[drmcboy]

you don't at all "gotta call". Can you post a HH where someone never bet until a 4 card straight appeared on the river, then this someone 3 bet shoves and does not have a straight? He has to have 9x about 4x as often as Q9 to make a call good, ignoring bluffs/lol value bets.

The idea that that "sometimes" this is a weird line with something else is not a reason to call. I've seen people get stacks in with A7o the first hand but I don't regularly call the next random person I play with A8s. At the end of the day you'll putting a 14/5 player on a huge bluff in a pot he has shown 0 interest in or bizarre over play and neither one makes any sense to me. We can make up whatever numbers we want for ranges so we'll just agree to disagree.


Tai we've had the open limping/set mining discussion before, generally it feels to me like this play has been approved by 2+2 and so you are going to go with it. I'm glad if that's not the case.

[rong]

Yeah you do gotta call IMO. There's 595 in the pot, and your remaining stack is 910. As he is BB his range is essentially ATC. So even if you are pretty certain he has the 9, you have just shy of 1/13 chance that he has the Q as well if you assume he would push with any 9. And the 400 raise from Tai could definitely be perceived as a bluff on that board, it certainly doesn't look like a value bet, so there is no reason to assume that Tai's raise is not perceived to be a bluff and therefore being bluffed back. And if his stats make you think that he is very unlikely to bluff here, if villain knows that, does that not make it the perfect time for him to bluff?

Either way, I think you are splitting that pot the vast majorty of the time, and I don't want to give away the 420 chips I have already put in the pot when I expect to be splitting and getting them back.

[poker3player333]

Insta fist pump call then when he flips over Q9 throw something at the wall cuz you know the poker Gods hate you.

OK, I need a new something and a new wall. Thanks for the responses, I knew I had to call here.

Definately a call. If he does turn over Q9 so be it. Just can't fold cause of the possibility of that one hand. Shove it.

[Poker Orifice]

If I'm not willilng to call when I get shoved back on here than I'm not going to raise the river to put myself in this situation.
Personally I would've played it differently from the get go but not really relevant to be saying that here.

[Nakamura]

FWIW, I'll add my two cents here.

I think I'm with drmcboy here on the set-mining issue. In a MP, with an unopened pot, I'm raising up it here. The issue with set-mining here, is when you do happen to hit a set, it becomes very transparent to opponents who even vaguely paying attention to how you are playing.

I prefer limping 99 into a pot that is already has multiple limpers or into a pot where a lot of aggression has been shown. In the first case the benefit is obvious. In the latter case, your opp is more likely to have AA/KK etc, and therefore more likely to stack off.

Obviously neither of these apply here, but in an unopened pot, it makes sense to me to open-raise. Being OOP is an obvious consideration, but a certain number of hands you are going to win with a CB. Plus you fold out hands like Q9, that are going to cost you a new wall

Coincidently, his numbers over even 100 hands means .... diddly squat. I doubt there is much statistical power to suggest a difference between that and a player with 14/11. So I'm not sure one can use the 14/5 figure in the debate.

[taipan168]

Tai we've had the open limping/set mining discussion before, generally it feels to me like this play has been approved by 2+2 and so you are going to go with it. I'm glad if that's not the case.

I am reassessing my play with better medium pocket pairs (say 77 and above) in this situation. Sometimes I think the 2+2 advice is written by and geared towards people who massively multi-table and are therefore prepared to trade off a bit of ROI (in the form of being able to play a bit of postflop beyond just set mining) for a bit of hourly rate (by being able to play more tables).

That said, from our previous discussion(s) I do think it's hard to determine the relative EV of different moves when stacks are deep without analysis of a massive number of hands.