KK, undercard flop, top card pairs on river ($27)

[taipan168]

No reads on this guy, this is 6th hand. Check behind or shove the river given the top card paired? He rarely checks the river with something I beat, right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1490)
MP2 (t1360)
MP3 (t1620)
CO (t1420)
Hero (Button) (t1530)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1600)

Hero's M: 51.00

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
4 folds, MP3 calls t20, 1 fold, Hero bets t100, SB calls t90, 1 fold, MP3 calls t80

Flop: (t320) 2, 7, 5 (3 players)
SB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets t200, 1 fold, MP3 calls t200

Turn: (t720) 3 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets t450, MP3 calls t450

River: (t1620) 7 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero ????

[rong]

I'm surprised at your raises here Tai, I would have thought you would raise heavier. Personally I would have pot bet the flop and pushed on the turn.

As you are now facing potential str8s or trips/boats, I'd just check here.

It's only really overpairs that you beat which are calling, and plenty of hands could be setting you up for a c/r.

[Muzzard]

Can't see many 7x hands that woudl limp call pre apart from 77.

His range is pretty much weighted to sets and overpairs here.

22/77/55 88+, I can't see a set/quads, c/c'ing three streets, probably would CRAI turn. I think I would shovel the river, checking behind seems so weaksauce and I think he'll call alot with 88+ esp with the turn c/c.

+ ther fact you have no reads suggest he's more likely to be a donk, as you'd have hands on most players right? You play alot of these 27's?

[taipan168]

I'm surprised at your raises here Tai, I would have thought you would raise heavier. Personally I would have pot bet the flop and pushed on the turn.

Board was pretty dry so I thought it was safe to bet a little less to keep opp around a little longer. The only realistic draw on the flop is 64s. Plan was to get it all in on three streets anyway (at least until I saw that top card pair the river).

[taipan168]

+ ther fact you have no reads suggest he's more likely to be a donk, as you'd have hands on most players right? You play alot of these 27's?

He's not a reg at the $27s, I pretty much know most of them.

[rong]

I'm surprised at your raises here Tai, I would have thought you would raise heavier. Personally I would have pot bet the flop and pushed on the turn.

Board was pretty dry so I thought it was safe to bet a little less to keep opp around a little longer. The only realistic draw on the flop is 64s. Plan was to get it all in on three streets anyway (at least until I saw that top card pair the river).

Agreed about dry flop, but 3 way this could include suited connectors and suited Aces as well as low pps ie 66. Admitedly even with those you are looking hot to trot on the flop, but the turn card would worry me a little. It wouldn't with only one caller preflop, but the extra caller, especially the sb, would have me a little uneasy and make me inclined to push at that point.

You can only really worry about a river card of either A,7,6,5,4,3,2, to potentially leave you in trouble, and my experience of your stakes is pretty small, but I generally prefer to take a smaller pot by making them fold than take the risk of being out drawn by letting them see the next card. However, perhaps that is a floor in my play as it's not getting value out of good hands.

[Sweril]

totally agree... I think it was A-4 suited, and because of that he called your weak bet, then after the turn everthing was easy...