JJ flops a set on the river, 4 hearts on board ($27)

[taipan168]

No real reads other than opp's stats were 20/10 over the first 10 hands. Call or fold on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1585)
SB (t1535)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1470)
UTG+1 (t1470)
MP1 (t1470)
Hero (MP2) (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1470)

Hero's M: 33.33

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, J
3 folds, Hero bets t120, 3 folds, SB calls t105, 1 fold

Flop: (t270) 4, 8, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t180, SB calls t180

Turn: (t630) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t630) J (2 players)
SB bets t330, Hero ????

[GatorJH]

there are so many hands here that you are behind and I just don't see him bluffing at this board with air or a TP kind of hand. If he is any sort of reasonable player the only two hands we beat that I can put him on here with this line are AQ and AJ or MAYBE QJ, but I think those hands as well as 44 or 88 check on this board.

I fold here, however if the J had been the J of Spades I would have called.

[lockpull]

The river bet just doesn't seem like a bluff or I think it would be more than half the pot. It seems more like a value/blocker bet. I would have to make a crying fold to the lucky runner runner. There are too few hands you beat and too many that beat you here.

[fulksy]

wouldn't AQ, or a set reraise the flop with two hearts, or at min raise the turn when another heart hits the board? this looks like a nice place to bluff sinse i you didn't bet the turn after a check form villian, that said think most hands you beat would of bet at some point to protect against the flush (AQ, set,etc.) its close for me, i lean towards folding.

[GatorJH]

I think a non heart may bluff the river, but with 4 hearts out there now it changes everything.

Btw, yes I think AQ or a set re-raise this flop and those are two of the hands we are ahead of which furthers my belief that we are behind here more than ahead.

[fulksy]

i agree it takes away a lot of what we beat thats why i was leaning towards folding, i just believe that taipans line, to me at least, looks like he dosn't have a heart and slowed down when the third heart hit which makes a 4th heart a good bluff card, again that said i still lean towards folding because it seems he dosn't have a lot of hands that we beat.

[rong]

I think more often than not you're up against a medium heart, probably 9 or T, which in my book puts him on QT, Q9 or a pp TT or below, each with an H. Which is also consistant with a preflop call from the sb, and the call on the flop.

It's only a small raise because he puts you on a good hand from your preflop raise and doesn't know if you have a big H but figures you may call with a pp that has an H.

So I fold. Thats my 2 cents.

[kevin2311]

i had kk agaisn pocket pocket 1010 and the guy had a 10 of hearts. flop was two hearted, turn a heart, river a heart. what the hell was that crap i was pissed

[taipan168]

i had kk agaisn pocket pocket 1010 and the guy had a 10 of hearts. flop was two hearted, turn a heart, river a heart. what the hell was that crap i was pissed

Pls post this in the bad beats forum

[taipan168]

i love having the trips in this position because you have alot more outs hten the flush does, not only do you have the jack but you have the board pairing as well, id push with this situation.

Kevin, this makes no sense at all, there are no more cards to come since I hit the J on the river and the board hasn't paired.

I am not sure what your agenda is with all your meaningless and banal posts. If you are trying to spam the forums to try to get passwords to the freerolls, you will get banned.

[GatorJH]

kevin is hellmuth in disguise

[baudib]

I lean toward a fold, although if you had a read that this was a sophisticated player, I'd lean toward a call. It's a good spot to bluff.

[flyingtriangle]

He might be bluffing, but I feel like calling would be a bad play here because it's too likely that he has you beat. But I think you can make a case for raising. Even if he's not bluffing, if you make a big raise he might figure you're holding the K or Q of hearts and fold the best hand.

that said, I would probably fold. early on in a tournament I don't like to risk more than a small percentage of my stack unless I'm confident I can win the hand, and here it's just too hard to tell.

btw, can you really flop a set on the river?

*edited for lack of typing skills.

[bjsaust]

I would fold, much as it sucks.

[TLR]

There are 3 possible cases IMO here:
1. He thinks he has the best hand after your check on the turn (with Ax, maybe QJ or KQ, 88, 44)
2. He value bets a made flush
3. He is trying to buy the pot on a hand like low PP with no flush

His bet size is definitely a value bet size, and all things considered I think I fold here, you may have the best hand more then the 1 in 3 you need to call from pot odds point of view, but losing the river bet will put a big dent in your stack that does not compensate for it IMO.

Hypothetical question: Assume the river card was T of spades and he bets the same amount, what is your move ?

[GatorJH]

Hypothetical question: Assume the river card was T of spades and he bets the same amount, what is your move ?

That would be a super easy fold for me as I can't figure out too many hands I am beating that would take this line and I think we could get called down light based on the line we took.