big bruff goot?

[mxiu]

Villain is a standard 13/8/2 over 3.3k hands reg
Hero has similar taggy stats.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($206.80)
Hero (Button) ($100)
SB ($85)
BB ($112.45)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($113.50)
MP1 ($137.25)
MP2 ($87)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
2 folds, MP1 bets $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 3, 10, 8 (2 players)
MP1 bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($23.50) 7 (2 players)
MP1 bets $12, Hero raises to $30, MP1 calls $18

River: ($83.50) 5 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $59 (All-In),

[Deanglow]

Meh I would just fold this turn, this never works when I do it

[ATOTHEC101]

Meh I would just fold this turn, this never works when I do it

haha same, but yeah this is a reasonably decent bluff.

[badgers]

yeah this is alright. AK is a great hand to turn into a bluff instead of something like 44 here - you have equity on the turn and you have blockers against AA/KK.

[hangchiong]

So we are pretty much repping 33,TT and 88

I think at 50NL,its pretty disgusting to do this although Villain is a standard reg.But yeah,its a pretty decent bluff.

[BankItDrew]

i prefer to turn AK into a bluff sooner than u did

[Parasurama]

i prefer to turn AK into a bluff sooner than u did

Yeah me too, I'd start preflop

i prefer to turn AK into a bluff sooner than u did

yeah the flop's a good place for it too, gives less chance of him having a set, you're still repping basically the same range, and when the turn comes J or 5 or something he'll be scared you were raising an overpair or turning 55 into a bluff etc etc and he'll fold more often to the turn barrel than he will to a river bet.

also gives you more streets to suck out.

I notice the pot's a little big on the river for him to fold to a shove - starting to raise on the flop allows you to manipulate pot size such that your shove is a scary 80%-ish pot-size-bet.

[badgers]

yeah but you're probably not raising the flop with a set I presume

why not? long as raising a lot is in your strategy

[badgers]

if you have a bad image then sure. However I guess I can't argue that raising flop is both a bad bluff line and a bad value line, it just seems like it's not going to maximise value with a set (unless villain levels himself), and completely polarises your range into bluffs and sets you might not even raise. Also, unless you basically minraise flop and bet turn v small, river shove is going to be smaller than it is here (I like the sizing here but any smaller seems too small)..

well you can size your bets to get it in on the turn, it doesn't have to be on the river.
Your range doesn't have to be totally polar, you could raise Tx/JJ+ as well, maaaybe even 99, or obv if T8s is in your range you raise that. You are right though that this board makes more sense for your range to flat the flop.

I looked more carefully at the pot sizes, it's actually fine but if you raise to $29 instead of 30 the river shove is 60 isntead of 59 which for some reason looks to me like a big difference. Psychological thing imo.

[Stacks]

Ughh.. Regarding whether to raise the flop or play it as OP did if we decide on bluffing always confuses me. I would rarely be raising this flop with any sort of value hand (Sets, Overpairs, TP). So it stands that if I raise this flop it's predominately bluffs. I just think villain is going to be folding too often to be raising the flop with a set, especially when we aren't hating any turn cards.

The only way I would raise a set is if villain was thinking that I only raise as a bluff here, then I could see trying to level villain into 3betting light and getting it in. But I don't think I have enough history with anyone to safely say I would make that play tbh.

So since the majority of my value hands are calling this flop, if I decide to bluff I'm usually floating and betting/raising turn.

However, if villain is folding often then maybe we should just do away with any sort of balance on this flop. Call our value hands, and bluff raise the flop with overcards, backdoor draws, etc. Especially since this is a flop we won't get 3bet on very often, and we can still realize most of our equity on the turn and river.

I just think villain is going to be folding too often to be raising the flop with a set, especially when we aren't hating any turn cards...

However, if villain is folding often then maybe we should just do away with any sort of balance on this flop. Call our value hands, and bluff raise the flop with overcards, backdoor draws, etc. Especially since this is a flop we won't get 3bet on very often, and we can still realize most of our equity on the turn and river.

basically this imo. You'll have to change strategy once they see you flat the flop with a set rather than raising it, or they call you down a few times when you have air.

[badgers]

stax makes good points. idk if you would need to have the intention of getting it in when you raise flop though, it really is a guessing game (or skill/ soulreading but these are tough attributes).

[mxiu]

I looked more carefully at the pot sizes, it's actually fine but if you raise to $29 instead of 30 the river shove is 60 isntead of 59 which for some reason looks to me like a big difference. Psychological thing imo.

Really? I was thinking the opposite.. well against baddies anyway. I would typically bet random high numbers in the ones column as long as they didn't end in 5 or 0, but I've found that baddies like to call flat numbered bets? Works for me, I obv don't have a good sample size or reliable stats to draw from, but betting like 9 dollars makes it look like a big stack of chips

o i just basically saw: 5_ into 8_