QQ - shove?

[rong]

Titan Poker Brisbane 30/60, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker
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Button D1ct8or (2950)
SB Ollii180 (1270)
BB JesusAce (1730)
UTG claudio532 (1470)
UTG+1 DanAronG (3280)
MP squacco (1470)
CO-1 ts214 (1410)
CO 7to2 (1420)

Preflop: DanAronG is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, DanAronG raises to 180, 3 folds, D1ct8or raises to 420, 2 folds, DanAronG?

Villain is a good player, winning with 17% ROI over 320 games. I often play against him, and know he wouldn't be raising here without a pretty good hand. I'm guessing at a range of TT+ & AQs+. Not entirely sure, I wouldn't put it past him to try and steel, as I have a tight image.

So what should I do here? Call or shove? Or fold even?

[taipan168]

Because you're both deep stacked, I would just call his 3-bet and get it in on a non A/K flop. If he has AA/KK you're losing your whole stack with an overpair anyway.

[GatorJH]

Agree with Tai on this one. Call and see a flop

[OneEyeLefty]

Have to agree. See what flop brings and re-evaluate. Q would be nice as you may be behind from the get.

[rong]

In hind site that makes a lot of sense. Had I called I could have escaped as the flop showed a K. But I shoved and got called by AA, neither of us improved so I went out.

Thanks for your advice all.

[taipan168]

In hind site that makes a lot of sense. Had I called I could have escaped as the flop showed a K. But I shoved and got called by AA, neither of us improved so I went out.

I wouldn't beat yourself up too much. At low buyin tourneys you'll get shown hands like JJ and worse pretty frequently. I've even seen some donks show up with hands like suited connectors, baby pocket pairs and even 72s in this spot!

[rong]

I'm more thinking about whether the push is +ev or not.

Tai (or anyone else for that matter), can you tell me re ICM, based on the range 99+ & AQ+ for the raise and villain callinbg JJ+ and AK, is it a +evpush?

Alternatively, if you can point me to a worked example of the maths of ICM I will figure thaqt out myself. Can't find a good example anywhere.

[rong]

ignore that question, just found a mathematical example on ftr, will post results shortly

[rong]

Right, after a lot of adding up, I think the following is correct:

If I fold to villains raise, my EV = $19.36

If I shove & he folds (based range of (TT+ & AQ+ for raise, but only calling my shove with JJ+ & AK) 28.5% of the time and

I shove and he calls 71.5% of the time.

So EV for shove = $18.405
& EV for folding to raise = $19.36

Now for anyone paying attention, you will notice I said before that he was raising with 99+ not TT+. So, bugger! I will do some more math and be back.

[rong]

Right, ICM with villain raising with 99+ & AQ+, and calling JJ+ & AK,

Shove = $18.85
Fold = $19.36

So either way, better to fold than shove.

What a pain in the arse all that was!

[RightMeow]

depends on if you wanna risk it lol... there is always that chance of ak/aa/kk and you get beat out when you can cash up more. Call the bet and play poker after the flop.

[surviva316]

if you know villain is solid and his 3betting range in the early stage of the tourney is polarized between premiums and steals, then pushing makes no sense. (you're folding away worse hands and allowing him to get all in w his hands that dominate you, kind of turning your QQ's into a bluff). i think you kind of answered your own question