When to ignore ICM

[Nakamura]

Thoughts?

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitand..._Strategy.html

[rong]

Interesting stuff. Not sure what I think yet, need some time to mull it over.

But it makes me think of a few times in SnG's when down to 5 players with large blinds and nobody wanting to call, I sometimes shove ATC 3 out of 5 hands. If you get away with this for 2 rounds, your major chip leader. Plus people think you're a maniac and don't even want to shove you, tightening their pushing range against you so you keep your BB. This only works at a very tight table though, where perhaps people aren't familiar with ICM - not uncommon at $10 level.

Why do I think I am going to be asked for evidence here? I'm not trawling through 200+ torney histories to find it.

[taipan168]

A lot depends on whether he can shove his 1250 stack into the BB (or the SB and BB if there's action in front) the next hand and still get folds. That said, the 98o call really isn't that terrible, particularly if you count his equity to pwn the bubble into account.

Otherwise, the times when the ICM breaks down are (courtesy of Slim Pickens of the other place):

* The error in an ICM-calculated prize pool equity, relative to it's magnitude, gets large when the chip stack involved becomes much smaller than the big blind. This error isn't particularly important to the equity of the big stacks at the table, but it can be important in cases where there are multiple short stacks on the bubble.
* The ICM doesn't account for position, and any attempt to correct it is basically an empirical parameter fit. If position is somehow important in a situation, it won't be reflected in the ICM-calculated prize pool equity. A pair of 2 BB stacks on a 4-handed bubble will probably have different actual values depending on who is going to hit the blinds first.
* If there is a large skill differential, the ICM won't capture it. For example, there are times when a shorter stack can be played much more skillfully than a larger stack because a short stack and a rebuy ticket allows a skilled player to bluff/semi-bluff a lot more hands.

[GatorJH]

* If there is a large skill differential, the ICM won't capture it.

Dan,
I think this can include your description above regarding playing on a tight table where your opponents are unfamiliar with ICM concepts.

[tuuk2]

I've read the article as well and he make some good points. I thnk the main point he's trying to make is it's OK to sometimes break with ICM, if you know what you're doing and you can justify it properly.

I think that ICM is the way to go especially for noobs (like me). That being said, because ICM can't properly take blinds into account and it also can't take skill level into consideration, it's OK to deviate from it under certain circumstances.

[Kijjo]

Good read.
I've pondered similar situations, and ofcourse as in all things poker, there are so many variables, you always have to say well, it depends on the situation. Still, it's interesting that it can be much more +EV to CALL in these situations than you would think. I do like that you're trading the possibility of busting out for the possibility of being the massive chipleader in some of these situations.
tuuk2, ICM does take blinds into consideration.

**Does this possibly explain why donks finish so strong sometimes? I can't tell you a %, but it's amazing to me how so often I end up heads-up against the worst guy at the table at the end of the game.

[tuuk2]

Good read.

tuuk2, ICM does take blinds into consideration.

**Does this possibly explain why donks finish so strong sometimes? I can't tell you a %, but it's amazing to me how so often I end up heads-up against the worst guy at the table at the end of the game.

Really? I've read that it can't properly take the blinds into consideration and that is one of it's shortcomings. That was part of the message that this article was putting across. If he folds there, he'll get blinded down in a couple of hands and ICM would have you push with the exact same hand anyway...

If you have 5 bad players at a 10-table SNG, it's likely one of the idiots will make it heads-up. Usually it's the one who gambled early against the other idiots and get a big chip stack.

The other day I was playing a 9-man non-turbo SNG and that scenario occured. The dude took out 4 players in the first 10 minutes. They kept trying to bluff and he couldn't be bluffed if he caught part of the flop. Heads-up, I destroyed him because I could value bet the crap out of him when he caught second pair.

[Nakamura]

Really? I've read that it can't properly take the blinds into consideration and that is one of it's shortcomings.

ICM takes the blinds involved in a current hand into consideration. As Taipan said, it doesn't take into account which stacks are going to be be in the blinds first e.g. with 4 players left and blinds of 200/400, 2 stacks of 300 chips are likely going to have very different 'values' depending on who chews the blinds first.