AK on the bubble

[rong]

Titan 10 man $10 + $1 SnG, blinds 150/300.

Read on Emy, not overly loose but reasonably aggressive when playing.

BB Mitzplug (1810)
SB DanAronG (3040)
UTG redzerdrog1 (4595)
UTG EmyRose (5555)

Preflop: DanAronG is in the SB with A K
1 fold, EmyRose raises to 1200, DanAronG???

So my question, obviously what would you do?
But more what you put as villains original betting range?
If you shove, villains calling range?
And if you knew villain was calling loose, say all PP's, ATs+, AJ+ what would you do then?

[Luco]

This is an easy shove, ranges be damned.

[taipan168]

This is an easy shove, ranges be damned.

Would it be an easy shove if the raiser's range was KK+?

Anyway, interesting hand. Given the reads that you mentioned I would put opp on 30% of hands or so which would make AK a close fold here if they called your shove over 100% of the time. Even if they fold a small % of the time when you shove over, this makes it a shove. Given that opp is getting almost 2.5 to 1 on the call I would expect him/her to call very often after raising.

If opp was calling all PPs, ATs+, AJo (which is actually pretty tight if he's raising 25-30%) then I insta shove over.

That said, if I was in a game I would probably shove over because $11 players will fold to a shove way more often than they should.

[Luco]

This is an easy shove, ranges be damned.

Would it be an easy shove if the raiser's range was KK+?

Yes, very good. I know you knew what I meant

[Random_Hero]

How does it change if villain shoves PF insted of raising 4xbb? my sngwiz isn't working just now but im guessing it would have us fold??

[taipan168]

How does it change if villain shoves PF insted of raising 4xbb? my sngwiz isn't working just now but im guessing it would have us fold??

Yeah I think it's a fold against most realistic ranges because there isn't even the 10% chance that opp will fold, which is enough to tip this from a fold to a shove.

[rong]

Well that is what made me wonder about this hand. I would have folded to a shove, but I wasn't sure what to do here.

In the end I pushed, and got called. But as he raised 4xbb UTG, I wonder if I had any fold equity at all.

He showed 44. I hit a K on the flop, and he caught trips on the turn.

So had I just called, I would have had position on the flop. And I mean this in that I consider acting first in this situation the better position, as you have first shoving opportunity. And I would have shoved when I saw the K and he probably would have folded what at that point was an under pair.

Now had I called the 1150, I would have been down 2 6xbb if I didn't like the flop & folded, but I would still fancy my chances at that point of landing ITM.

I'm actually leaning towards a call here in hindsite, although I really don't like calling anyting other than AA & KK here.

[Luco]

Going back to the OP - so if you know you'll get called 100%, you have to fold AK here even to the 3xBB raise? Is that because it's bubble time? Is that what you were saying Taipan?

[taipan168]

Going back to the OP - so if you know you'll get called 100%, you have to fold AK here even to the 3xBB raise? Is that because it's bubble time? Is that what you were saying Taipan?

OP's read was "not overly loose but reasonably aggressive when playing". If the read was "very good player, understood how to pwn the bubble" then I would be terrified of this standard raise because a good SNG player would always shove here (in fact provided that SB isn't a calltard, big stack can shove 100% here BUT they would definitely shove rather than standard raise).

Because we're on the bubble and we're not the short stack, this is a hand where (assuming that Button never folds to our shove) shoving over is either very very -EV if opp's range is tight or only very slightly +EV if it's loose. Based on OP's read, I don't think I can give opp a loose enough range to make shoving over +EV assuming they never fold.

On the other hand, even if they fold 10% of the time after raising, that's enough to make shoving +EV which is why I would do that in game.

[taipan168]

In the end I pushed, and got called. But as he raised 4xbb UTG, I wonder if I had any fold equity at all.

He showed 44. I hit a K on the flop, and he caught trips on the turn.

I think you had some, even if it was only a bit. BTW it's a set on the turn (trips is when you hold one card and there are two of the same card on the flop). BTW 2 - don't post results so soon.

So had I just called, I would have had position on the flop. And I mean this in that I consider acting first in this situation the better position, as you have first shoving opportunity. And I would have shoved when I saw the K and he probably would have folded what at that point was an under pair.

Now had I called the 1150, I would have been down 2 6xbb if I didn't like the flop & folded, but I would still fancy my chances at that point of landing ITM.

I'm actually leaning towards a call here in hindsite, although I really don't like calling anyting other than AA & KK here.

No, shoving over is definitely the best move here. Calling and getting your chips in if there is an A or K on the flop is spewing off your stack. You only hit an A or K on the flop 32% of the time, so if you don't, what's your move? If you called with the intention of pulling a stop 'n' go then that's better, but your stack is a little too short and opp raised a little too much to do that (ideally you have about a pot-sized bet on the flop when you shove).

[rong]

BTW it's a set on the turn (trips is when you hold one card and there are two of the same card on the flop).

ooooh, never knew that! Thought it was 2 expressions for the same thing.

BTW 2 - don't post results so soon.

Woops, sorry, perhaps was a bit early.

No, shoving over is definitely the best move here. Calling and getting your chips in if there is an A or K on the flop is spewing off your stack. You only hit an A or K on the flop 32% of the time, so if you don't, what's your move? If you called with the intention of pulling a stop 'n' go then that's better, but your stack is a little too short and opp raised a little too much to do that (ideally you have about a pot-sized bet on the flop when you shove).

hmmm, I certainly won't argue with you over whether it is +ev to shove, I know you know your stuff. But I think I could have owned this bubble, or certainly had a good shot at it, so should the shove be measured against a fold and then equity at that point, or against expected equity including probability of me owning the bubble?

[Luco]

what about same scenario but already ITM? does that change anything?
Sorry for hijacking Dan but I'm really learning something here.

[taipan168]

No, shoving over is definitely the best move here. Calling and getting your chips in if there is an A or K on the flop is spewing off your stack. You only hit an A or K on the flop 32% of the time, so if you don't, what's your move? If you called with the intention of pulling a stop 'n' go then that's better, but your stack is a little too short and opp raised a little too much to do that (ideally you have about a pot-sized bet on the flop when you shove).

hmmm, I certainly won't argue with you over whether it is +ev to shove, I know you know your stuff. But I think I could have owned this bubble, or certainly had a good shot at it, so should the shove be measured against a fold and then equity at that point, or against expected equity including probability of me owning the bubble?[/quote]
Yes, you measure the shove against a fold, since those are the only two choices. It's actually somewhat close here (when I said that shoving was definitely the best move I was comparing shoving to calling).

As far as pwning the bubble, yes you can add a little bit of equity if you shove this hand and win because you'll have the monster stack, which adds a little bit of expected value to shoving over folding.

[rspeirsmlb]

My opinion on this particular situation: On the bubble, I would stop and think to myself...."Ok, how agressive is the LOW STACK at the table?"

A: Solid= shove (take yer shot now)
B: Bubble Nit= fold (hopes of him blinding out/shoving garbage near end of his time)
C: Too Agressive= fold (if he's shoving garbage non stop with agressive chip leaders behind....let them get him!)
D: Calling simply is not an option

In this situation I would not think too much about what this guy has but rather "What kind of player is the LOW STACK! Yes I said low stack. is he tight/agressive? weak? nit? You have double the chip amount as the low stack at this point..... with him having 5 BB.
The way I would play this can go into a simple equation:
[/b]Assuming you are not low stack and on the bubble
If chipleader = tight/agressive OR even loose caller you either FOLD or PUSH this hand. Preferably FOLD in hopes of a soon elimination of low stack. [This decision is based soely on the type of player the low stack is]
IN MY PERSONAL OPINION: on the bubble, in these situations it is more important to decide what kind of player the low stack is, in order to determine the majority of your plays.


Have at it guys let me hear the critisism!

[TLR]

Assuming this is a standard raise for him (i.e. he does not usually shove) I think I go for a S&G here.
You have very little fold equity preflop, and I think you have some more (not much) FE after the flop.

[rong]

I'm leaning toward that myself. The whole thing comes down to how much, if any, fold equity I have preflop. Villain raised 4 BB and I am only asking for 5 more. How can he possibly fold unless he really does have nothing and is just attempting to steel, which I don't think is the case.

Stop and go is the only option if I want to play the hand and don't want to go to a showdown.

I'm wondering if there is any argument to just fold. Not because you think you are beat, but because you think you have more chance of landing ITM by waiting for opportunities to shove when you are first in the pot and reduce the odds of facing a showdown.

[taipan168]

Stop and go is the only option if I want to play the hand and don't want to go to a showdown.

As I said above, if you're calling the raise rather than shoving over then stop n go is the only option, particularly against an opp who wasn't overly loose. I would prefer it over shoving preflop if you had a few more chips behind however.

I'm wondering if there is any argument to just fold. Not because you think you are beat, but because you think you have more chance of landing ITM by waiting for opportunities to shove when you are first in the pot and reduce the odds of facing a showdown.

It's all about reads and ranges of the raiser. If you have a very solid read that he is very tight, only showing down premium hands even in a favourable steal situation like this, then fold away.