AQo on the bubble, 15bb's facing raise

[surviva316]

villain is 23/12 over 74 hands. Payout starts at third, but the table had been preposterously tight, so i didn't feel it was coming anytime soon.

folding seems oober weak and calling OOP without the initiative seems like a very sticky situation. raise all in seems questionable ICm play. thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2+0.25 Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t3820)
Button (t4680)
Hero (SB) (t2400)
BB (t2600)

Hero's M: 10.00

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
UTG bets t560, 1 fold, [color=#CC3333]Hero?????

[baudib]

I'm pretty sure this is a fold unless UTG has been raising a ton on the bubble...make that raise-folding....

[surviva316]

ps sorry about posting results that was an accident

[TLR]

I would not call on this spot, I think you have a lot of FE, so I would probably push it

[taipan168]

This is definitely a push or fold spot, and unless UTG has been super LAGG, I would fold it. Remember that he is second stack and he raised from UTG so the big stack has still to act, which means I doubt he is raising with total crap here. Plus your 23/12 stats would indicate to me that he isn't a complete LAGGtard.

I ran it through SNG Wiz with UTG raising 15% of hands and calling a shove with 12% (with BB calling your shove over with QQ+, AKs) and this was pretty solidly a fold. SNG Wiz suggested JJ+ as a shove over range with these opponent ranges.

BTW I wouldn't worry about folding being "über weak". If pushing is -EV and calling sucks then fold is the only other option.