Weak Full House on the bubble w 30bb's

[surviva316]

for starters, this is a turbo satellite that pays the top 2 of 200 players and doesn't reward any other place. as you can see i'm tied for that second entry spot.

villain is very loose, running at 46/9/1.75 and went to showdown 44.5%.

i have questions about every street in this hand essentially.

as you can see he's huge stacked and i'd seen him give people trouble when they played back at him, so that's why i was content to call his flop bet. when i completed my boat on the turn i knew it was time to extract.

i really had no clue how often he was calling a river bet with worse than a 9, and i was fairly certain he was capable of bluffing back, so what's my plan of action? check? b/f? b/c?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1200/2400 Blinds 300 Ante (3 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t158929)
Hero (BB) (t71461)
Button (t78610)

Hero's M: 15.88

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, SB calls t1200, Hero checks

Flop: (t5700) , , (2 players)
SB bets t2400, Hero calls t2400

Turn: (t10500) (2 players)
SB bets t2400, Hero raises to t9600, SB calls t7200

River: (t29700) (2 players)
SB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero????

[fulksy]

i'm betting for value here, anyover pair would of raised Preflop IMO, theirs no way a two bets the turn when he hits quads then checks the river, pockets sevens also i believe raises pre so i'm not sure what your worried about, i don't know exactly what weaker hands call but if hes that loose maybe A or K high for a hero call, maybe he hit a seven, possible maybe even small pair

[baudib]

Have you ever heard of the Zeebo Theorem?

“No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet.”

There should be a corollary that states: "Players do some really stupid shit on 3-of-a-kind boards."

I've seen a lot of people make like hero calls for huge bets with Ace high on boards like this, because you must be bluffing.

I bet something here on the river that he could call with a lot weaker hands, like maybe $12,000. I'm guessing that you probably got coolered here and that he has quads or limped with a big pair, but I don't see how you can figure that from how the hand played out. If he has a better hand than deuces full of 9s, I have to think he would four-bet you on the turn.

So yeah, even considering ICM here, I'd call a check-raise, too.

[Gshark]

I'm betting 10 - 15k here. If I get raised...it'd be a rough call. I'd probably do it and cringe.

[TLR]

Flop: I would raise it, you probably have the best hand but it is vulnerable, raising and winning the pot on the flop is a good result for you

As the turn and river played I would bet it, while it is possible he has a two and is going for a c-r on the river he may also call you with low-mid PP - I would bet 15 and hope he will not shove over

[Raoni_Poker]

I would raise on the flop, not just to increase the pot, but you would gain more information about his hand. Seems a standard Cbet.

Anyway, I'm wondering here why he called your raise on the turn:
1) He has a pair (lower than 9) or though you were bluffing (since you did not raise the pot and the turn card was the third 2). He can have 66, which gives him a higher full house.
2) He has something like A2. He Bet the flop, value bet and call the river (to keep you on the hand). The check on the river is strange here...a value bet would be much likely.

I would shove or bet strong. You probably have the best hand here. If he has a higher pair, he would have raise pre flop...if he has a lower pair, thats nothing to worry. Ace high seems likely to me (he probably thougth you were bluffing on the turn).

[surviva316]

I would raise on the flop, not just to increase the pot, but you would gain more information about his hand. Seems a standard Cbet.

except I didn't raise PF.

the problem with the flop is that he'd been playing back at everyone for so damned long, and I'm only playing for second (because first and second have the same prize and i walk home with nothing for third). he's running 1.75 which is pretty damned aggressive for someone playing 46% of their hands, not to mention the fact that he was clearly calling a lot of bets (which drives this number down) if he'd seen 45% of the showdowns.

so i sized up my raise and then asked myself: do i really wanna back this TPNK on a paired board with my stack, when i know i can outplay both of these opponents (the other guy didn't get involved in a hand except for when he pushed his 30bb stack PF). in other words, i didn't wanna raise/fold to a push (which is very likely from this player), and raise/calling a push is a ballsy play at best. this is why i'm very open to ANY kind of suggestions on how to play every street (not just the river). i just don't think this is any sort of "standard" situation.

and if anyone's curious, i raised, he 3bet pushed and i insta-called. He showed QQ and i bubbled out. posting this hand isn't completely results oriented though because i have trouble handing boards like three of a kind or three of a suit.