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$12/180: 75s folded to in the SB, shove into the big stack?

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  1. #1

    Default $12/180: 75s folded to in the SB, shove into the big stack?

    Big stack is playing smart big stack poker, stats 27/24 at this point. The other two have been playing pretty weak/tight.

    I ran this through SNG Wiz and this is a +EV shove if opp calls with 40% of hands or less. There's a reasonable jump in the payout between 4th and 3rd place (from memory, $150 to $230).

    What's your move?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $11+$1 Tournament, 2500/5000 Blinds 500 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (SB) (t28091)
    BB (t155084)
    UTG (t67272)
    Button (t19553)

    Hero's M: 2.96

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 7
    2 folds, Hero ????
  2. #2
    Its close, not because of your hand but because your stack has dwindled so low that you´ll probably be called no matter what...
    if you quickly crunch the numbers against a random hand you are about 43.6% so its leaning towards a fold.
    Do you have any reads that suggest that the big stack is really tight and wont call unless he has a strong hand then its a push, otherwise id wait and either push the button with any A,K,Q or pair if that hand doesnt come push any hand the next hand, UTG
  3. #3
    This is an easy fold since a large part of your present equity in the tournament depends on outlasting the button. I'd shove top 40% maybe tighter unless I had a read that the BB would fold too much, which it doesn't sound like from your description. Obv shove if there weren't another shorty present.
  4. #4
    I really doubt big stack is folding 60%.

    I know that if this is me, I've already shoved into the big stack a couple times by now so this one will be a fold.

    I think this is a shove with any sort of reasonable hand (98+).

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